Measurement of statistical evidence on an absolute scale following thermodynamic principles

Statistical analysis is used throughout biomedical research and elsewhere to assess strength of evidence. We have previously argued that typical outcome statistics (including p-values and maximum likelihood ratios) have poor measure-theoretic properties: they can erroneously indicate decreasing evidence as data supporting an hypothesis accumulate; and they are not amenable to calibration, necessary for meaningful comparison of evidence across different study designs, data types, and levels of analysis. We have also previously proposed that thermodynamic theory, which allowed for the first time derivation of an absolute measurement scale for temperature (T), could be used to derive an absolute scale for evidence (E). Here we present a novel thermodynamically-based framework in which measurement of E on an absolute scale, for which "one degree" always means the same thing, becomes possible for the first time. The new framework invites us to think about statistical analyses in terms of the flow of (evidential) information, placing this work in the context of a growing literature on connections among physics, information theory, and statistics.Comment: Final version of manuscript as published in Theory in Biosciences (2013

The relationship between IR and multimedia databases

Modern extensible database systems support multimedia data through ADTs. However, because of the problems with multimedia query formulation, this support is not sufficient.\ud \ud Multimedia querying requires an iterative search process involving many different representations of the objects in the database. The support that is needed is very similar to the processes in information retrieval.\ud \ud Based on this observation, we develop the miRRor architecture for multimedia query processing. We design a layered framework based on information retrieval techniques, to provide a usable query interface to the multimedia database.\ud \ud First, we introduce a concept layer to enable reasoning over low-level concepts in the database.\ud \ud Second, we add an evidential reasoning layer as an intermediate between the user and the concept layer.\ud \ud Third, we add the functionality to process the users' relevance feedback.\ud \ud We then adapt the inference network model from text retrieval to an evidential reasoning model for multimedia query processing.\ud \ud We conclude with an outline for implementation of miRRor on top of the Monet extensible database system

Explicit Reasoning over End-to-End Neural Architectures for Visual Question Answering

Many vision and language tasks require commonsense reasoning beyond data-driven image and natural language processing. Here we adopt Visual Question Answering (VQA) as an example task, where a system is expected to answer a question in natural language about an image. Current state-of-the-art systems attempted to solve the task using deep neural architectures and achieved promising performance. However, the resulting systems are generally opaque and they struggle in understanding questions for which extra knowledge is required. In this paper, we present an explicit reasoning layer on top of a set of penultimate neural network based systems. The reasoning layer enables reasoning and answering questions where additional knowledge is required, and at the same time provides an interpretable interface to the end users. Specifically, the reasoning layer adopts a Probabilistic Soft Logic (PSL) based engine to reason over a basket of inputs: visual relations, the semantic parse of the question, and background ontological knowledge from word2vec and ConceptNet. Experimental analysis of the answers and the key evidential predicates generated on the VQA dataset validate our approach.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, AAAI 201

Comment: Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

Comment: Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design [arXiv:0708.0279]Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000547 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Connectionist Inference Models

The performance of symbolic inference tasks has long been a challenge to connectionists. In this paper, we present an extended survey of this area. Existing connectionist inference systems are reviewed, with particular reference to how they perform variable binding and rule-based reasoning, and whether they involve distributed or localist representations. The benefits and disadvantages of different representations and systems are outlined, and conclusions drawn regarding the capabilities of connectionist inference systems when compared with symbolic inference systems or when used for cognitive modeling

Monte-Carlo methods make Dempster-Shafer formalism feasible

One of the main obstacles to the applications of Dempster-Shafer formalism is its computational complexity. If we combine m different pieces of knowledge, then in general case we have to perform up to 2(sup m) computational steps, which for large m is infeasible. For several important cases algorithms with smaller running time were proposed. We prove, however, that if we want to compute the belief bel(Q) in any given query Q, then exponential time is inevitable. It is still inevitable, if we want to compute bel(Q) with given precision epsilon. This restriction corresponds to the natural idea that since initial masses are known only approximately, there is no sense in trying to compute bel(Q) precisely. A further idea is that there is always some doubt in the whole knowledge, so there is always a probability p(sub o) that the expert's knowledge is wrong. In view of that it is sufficient to have an algorithm that gives a correct answer a probability greater than 1-p(sub o). If we use the original Dempster's combination rule, this possibility diminishes the running time, but still leaves the problem infeasible in the general case. We show that for the alternative combination rules proposed by Smets and Yager feasible methods exist. We also show how these methods can be parallelized, and what parallelization model fits this problem best

Prognostics in switching systems: Evidential markovian classification of real-time neuro-fuzzy predictions.

International audienceCondition-based maintenance is nowadays considered as a key-process in maintenance strategies and prognostics appears to be a very promising activity as it should permit to not engage inopportune spending. Various approaches have been developed and data-driven methods are increasingly applied. The training step of these methods generally requires huge datasets since a lot of methods rely on probability theory and/or on artificial neural networks. This step is thus time-consuming and generally made in batch mode which can be restrictive in practical application when few data are available. A method for prognostics is proposed to face up this problem of lack of information and missing prior knowledge. The approach is based on the integration of three complementary modules and aims at predicting the failure mode early while the system can switch between several functioning modes. The three modules are: 1) observation selection based on information theory and Choquet Integral, 2) prediction relying on an evolving real-time neuro-fuzzy system and 3) classification into one of the possible functioning modes using an evidential Markovian classifier based on Dempster-Shafer theory. Experiments concern the prediction of an engine health based on more than twenty observations