On a method for mending time to failure distributions

Many software reliability growth models assume that the time to next failure may be infinite; i.e., there is a chance that no failure will occur at all. For most software products this is too good to be true even after the testing phase. Moreover, if a non-zero probability is assigned to an infinite time to failure, metrics like the mean time to failure do not exist. In this paper, we try to answer several questions: Under what condition does a model permit an infinite time to next failure? Why do all finite failures non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models share this property? And is there any transformation mending the time to failure distributions? Indeed, such a transformation exists; it leads to a new family of NHPP models. We also show how the distribution function of the time to first failure can be used for unifying finite failures and infinite failures NHPP models. --software reliability growth model,non-homogeneous Poisson process,defective distribution,(mean) time to failure,model unification

Validation of Ultrahigh Dependability for Software-Based Systems

Modern society depends on computers for a number of critical tasks in which failure can have very high costs. As a consequence, high levels of dependability (reliability, safety, etc.) are required from such computers, including their software. Whenever a quantitative approach to risk is adopted, these requirements must be stated in quantitative terms, and a rigorous demonstration of their being attained is necessary. For software used in the most critical roles, such demonstrations are not usually supplied. The fact is that the dependability requirements often lie near the limit of the current state of the art, or beyond, in terms not only of the ability to satisfy them, but also, and more often, of the ability to demonstrate that they are satisfied in the individual operational products (validation). We discuss reasons why such demonstrations cannot usually be provided with the means available: reliability growth models, testing with stable reliability, structural dependability modelling, as well as more informal arguments based on good engineering practice. We state some rigorous arguments about the limits of what can be validated with each of such means. Combining evidence from these different sources would seem to raise the levels that can be validated; yet this improvement is not such as to solve the problem. It appears that engineering practice must take into account the fact that no solution exists, at present, for the validation of ultra-high dependability in systems relying on complex software

Statistical modelling of software reliability

During the six-month period from 1 April 1991 to 30 September 1991 the following research papers in statistical modeling of software reliability appeared: (1) A Nonparametric Software Reliability Growth Model; (2) On the Use and the Performance of Software Reliability Growth Models; (3) Research and Development Issues in Software Reliability Engineering; (4) Special Issues on Software; and (5) Software Reliability and Safety

CHORUS Deliverable 3.4: Vision Document

The goal of the CHORUS Vision Document is to create a high level vision on audio-visual search engines in order to give guidance to the future R&D work in this area and to highlight trends and challenges in this domain. The vision of CHORUS is strongly connected to the CHORUS Roadmap Document (D2.3). A concise document integrating the outcomes of the two deliverables will be prepared for the end of the project (NEM Summit)

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Three-dimensional analysis of mandibular landmarks, planes and shape, and the symphyseal changes associated with growth and orthodontic treatment

OBJECTIVE: To test reliability of 3D mandibular landmarks, planes of reference and surfaces and assess their correlation to conventional 2D cephalometric measurements. To analyze changes in three-dimensional shape of the symphysis due to growth and orthodontic treatment. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of CBCTs of healthy orthodontic patients. 32 subjects were included, 16 males and 16 females. Mean ages of 10.6 ± 1.5 years and 15.0 ± 0.9 years before and after treatment, respectively. The mean follow up time was 4.3 years. Subjects free of any craniofacial anomalies, and no observable pathology on panoramic radiograph were. 15 subjects had CVM 1 and 17 subjects had CVM 2 before orthodontic treatment. All subjects had CVM 5 after orthodontic treatment. For the first phase, 3D mandibular landmark identifications were digitized. Planes and landmarks were constructed and compared with conventional 2D mandibular measurements. For the second phase, mandibles were isolated by removing surrounding structures. Pearson correlation and paired t-test were performed to test for correlation and differences between 2D and 3D measurements, respectively. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS 9.4. Software. MorphoJ software (Version 2.0, www.flywings.org.uk) was used for symphysis shape analysis; and Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA) between pre-treatment and post-treatment was used for statistical analysis of the symphysis. RESULTS: We found statistical significant positive correlation between 2D and 3D pre-treatment ramus height (P-value =0.01), post-treatment ramus height (P-value < 0.0001), pre-treatment corpus length (P-value 0.0003), post-treatment corpus length (P-value 0.04), pre-treatment gonial angle (P-value <0.0001), and post-treatment gonial angle (P-value=0.05). Also, statistically significant differences in 2D ramus height (P=0.001), 3D ramus height (P-value=0.002), 2D corpus length (P-value <0.01), and 3D corpus length (P-value <0.01). For symphysis shape comparing between pre-treatment and post-treatment, we found that there is no statistically significant difference between them (P-value= 0.99). CONCLUSION: These results demonstrated statistically significant positive correlation between certain 2D and 3D measurements, pre-treatment and post-treatment differences in 2D and 3D measurements showed consistent results. Symphysis shapes do break out as distinctly separate groups, but the differences between the means is small

OS diversity for intrusion tolerance: Myth or reality?

One of the key benefits of using intrusion-tolerant systems is the possibility of ensuring correct behavior in the presence of attacks and intrusions. These security gains are directly dependent on the components exhibiting failure diversity. To what extent failure diversity is observed in practical deployment depends on how diverse are the components that constitute the system. In this paper we present a study with operating systems (OS) vulnerability data from the NIST National Vulnerability Database. We have analyzed the vulnerabilities of 11 different OSes over a period of roughly 15 years, to check how many of these vulnerabilities occur in more than one OS. We found this number to be low for several combinations of OSes. Hence, our analysis provides a strong indication that building a system with diverse OSes may be a useful technique to improve its intrusion tolerance capabilities

Age-related gait standards for healthy children and young people: the GOS-ICH paediatric gait centiles

Objective To develop paediatric gait standards in healthy children and young people. Methods This observational study builds on earlier work to address the lack of population standards for gait measurements in children. Analysing gait in children affected by neurological or musculoskeletal conditions is an important component of paediatric assessment but is often confounded by developmental changes. The standards presented here do not require clinician expertise to interpret and offer an alternative to developmental tables of normalised gait data. Healthy children aged 1-19 years were recruited from community settings in London and Hertfordshire, U.K. The GAITRite ® walkway was used to record measurements for each child for velocity, cadence, step length, base of support, and stance, single and double support (as percentage of gait cycle). We fitted generalized linear additive models for location, scale and shape (gamlss). Results We constructed percentile charts for seven gait variables measured on 624 (321 males) contemporary healthy children using gamlss package in R. A clinical application of gait standards was explored. Conclusion Age-related, gender-specific standards for seven gait variables were developed and are presented here. They have a familiar format and can be used clinically to aid diagnoses, and to monitor change over time for both medical therapy and natural history of the condition. The clinical example demonstrates the potential of the GOS-ICH Paediatric Gait Centiles (GOS-ICH PGC) to enable meaningful interpretation of change in an individual’s performance, and describes characteristic features of gait from a specific population throughout childhood.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio