Impacts of Agricultural Expansion on Surface Runoff: A Case Study of a River Basin in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

This work presents an analysis of the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes of a region in the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and an evaluation of their impacts on the surface runoff regime. This case study took place at the Suiá-Miçu River basin, located in the northeast region of Mato Grosso State. LULC maps were produced for the years 1973, 1984 and 2005 using remote sensing data. After analyzing the agricultural expansion in the study area, the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool (AGWA) was applied in performing the surface runoff modeling for each of the analyzed years using the SCS curve number method. The results showed that by 1984, 13% of the natural vegetation had been replaced by pasture in this drainage basin. These changes were responsible for a 5.7% increase in the annual average surface runoff volume when compared with the baseline values of 1973. In 2005, the agricultural areas increased to around 40% of the drainage basin, being 28% occupied by pasture and 12% by crop fields. In this last scenario, the annual average surface runoff was 37% higher than in 1973

Avaliações hidrológicas, hidráulicas e multicriteriais de susceptibilidade às inundações em áreas urbanas costeiras : estudo de caso da bacia do Rio Juqueriquerê no Brasil

Orientadores: Antonio Carlos Zuffo, Monzur Alam ImteazTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo e Swinburne University of Technology (Australia)Resumo: O desenvolvimento significativo de Caraguatatuba é traduzido pela sua potencialidade ao turismo, exploração de gás, proximidade do Porto de São Sebastião e ampliação do complexo viário da Tamoios, particularmente na Bacia do Rio Juqueriquerê, que é a maior planície não urbanizada do litoral norte de São Paulo, Brasil. A área é constituída por baixas declividades e lençóis freáticos rasos, cercada pelas altas escarpas da Serra do Mar. Além disso, é afetada por chuvas orográficas e variação de marés, contribuindo para a ocorrência natural de inundações. Apesar da área à jusante ser densamente urbanizada, a bacia não é propriamente monitorada, tornando a previsão de futuros cenários com a tradicional modelagem hidrológica muito desafiadora, devido à falta de dados representativos. No presente estudo, a análise multicriterial para tomada de decisão (MCDA) foi utilizada para determinar os critérios mais impactantes na susceptibilidade às inundações do local. O cenário futuro foi baseado no uso e cobertura da terra proposto pelo Plano Diretor de Caraguatatuba. A pesquisa com especialistas usando o método Delphi e o Processo de Análise Hierárquica (AHP) foram associados para a atribuição e comparação por pares dos seguintes critérios: elevação, densidade de drenagem, chuva, declividade e Curva Número (CN), do Serviço de Conservação do Solo (SCS) dos Estados Unidos. A bacia foi discretizada em 11 sub-bacias, e vários métodos estatísticos e empíricos foram empregados para a parametrização do modelo multicriterial. Após a definição dos critérios e tratamento estatístico dos julgamentos de todos os especialistas, uma faixa limitada de pesos foi gerada, variando de 8,36 a 8,88, a qual foi efetivamente convertida para uma ampla faixa de valores de prioridade pelo uso de uma abordagem extendida do método AHP. A escala de julgamento da raiz quadrada aplicada no estudo gerou resultados de boa qualidade, onde a taxa de consistência foi de 0,0218 e o índice de consistência foi de 0,0244. Além disso, a análise de sensibilidade revelou a coerência do vetor peso, por meio da variação do critério de elevação (+10 % e -5%), afetando os pesos mas não a hierarquia. Posteriormente, todos os critérios foram implementados no sistema de informações geográficas (SIG). Foi realizada uma discussão minuciosa sobre a aquisição da variável CN, levando em consideração os tipos de solo brasileiros e as condições de saturação locais. As limitações do método SCS-CN foram destacadas, especialmente no que se refere à sua aplicação em bacias não monitoradas, quando não é possível calibrar ou validar o modelo. A estimativa e a calibração dos coeficientes de rugosidade de Manning nos principais cursos d'água também foram desenvolvidas no estudo, com base nos dados observados e medidos em trabalhos de campo. Os desvios médios absolutos entre os valores de Manning variaram de 0,004 a 0,008, mostrando que a metodologia proposta pode ser aplicada em quaisquer áreas de estudo, tanto para calibrar quanto para atualizar os coeficientes de rugosidade de Manning em diferentes períodos. A distribuição da função gamma foi utilizada para o cálculo das chuvas de projeto, que posteriormente foram utilizadas para a análise de correlação entre chuvas anuais e diárias. O Sistema de Análise Fluvial do Centro de Engenharia Hidrológica em 2 dimensões (HEC-RAS 2D) e o Sistema de Modelagem Hidrológica (HEC-HMS) foram utilizados para a calibração do parâmetro CN e para a validação do modelo. Os limites de inundação gerados no processo de vadidação (pelo modelo HEC-RAS 2D) foram muito similares aos gerados pela abordagem MCDA, correspondendo a 93,92 % e 96,31 %, respectivamente. Os métodos de interpolação foram essenciais para a distribuição temporal e espacial dos dados meteorológicos no modelo de precipitação-vazão usados para validação, e também no modelo MCDA implementado no SIG. A determinação final da probabilidade de susceptibilidade às inundações nas planícies estudadas foi baseada na soma ponderada espacial dos critérios atribuídos previamente. Por fim, os mapas de susceptibilidade às inundações foram gerados para os diferentes cenários. As simulações de diferentes padrões de chuva mostraram que este critério influenciou fortemente na probabilidade de suscetibilidade às inundações. Para a simulação de maiores elevações e chuvas máximas, o índice de susceptibilidade às inundações foi 4 (do total de 5). A maior contribuição do estudo foi na aquisição de parâmetros confiáveis por meio das técnicas propostas, que também podem ser utilizadas em outras áreas, principalmente onde os dados são escassos e há complexas limitações físicas envolvidas, visando o desenvolvimento urbano sustentável da regiãoAbstract: The significant development of Caraguatatuba Municipality is translated by its tourism potentiality, gas exploration, proximity to the Port of Sao Sebastiao and extension of the Tamoios Highway complex, particularly in the Juqueriquere River Basin, which is the major non-urbanised plains of the northern coastline of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The area is comprised of low slopes and shallow water tables, surrounded by the high elevations of the Serra do Mar mountains. Additionally, It is affected by orographic rainfalls and tide variation, contributing to the natural occurrence of floods. Even though the downstream area is densely urbanised, the watershed is not properly gauged, making it a challenging task for the prediction of future scenarios with the traditional hydrological modelling approach, due to the lack of representative data. In the current study, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) were used to determine the mostly impacting criteria to the local flood susceptibility. The future scenario was based on the land use and land cover proposed by the City Master Plan of Caraguatatuba. The expert-based survey using the Delphi method and the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) were associated with the attribution and pairwise comparison of the following criteria: elevation, density drainage, rainfall, slope and curve number (CN), from the US Soil Conservation Service (SCS). The watershed was discretised in 11 sub-basins, and several statistical and empirical methods were employed for the parameterisation of the multicriteria model. After the definition of the criteria and the statistical treatment of the judgements of all experts, a limited range of weights was derived, varying from 8.36 to 8.88, which was effectively converted to a larger ratio of priority values by the use of an extended approach of the AHP methodology. The root square judgement scale applied in the study generated good-quality results, where the consistency ratio was 0.0218 and the consistency index was 0.0244. Besides, the sensitivity analysis revealed the coherence of the weight vector, by the variation of the elevation criterion (+10 % and -5%), affecting the weights but not the hierarchy. Further, all the criteria were implemented in the geographical information system (GIS). There was a thorough discussion regarding the acquisition of the CN variable, taking into consideration the Brazilian soil types and the local saturated conditions. The constraints of the SCS-CN method were highlighted, especially regarding its application in ungauged basins, where it is not possible to calibrate or validate the model. The estimation and calibration of the Manning's roughness coefficients of the main watercourses were also developed in the study, based on the observed and measured data in field campaigns. The mean absolute deviations between the estimated and the calibrated Manning's values varied from 0.004 and 0.008, showing that the proposed methodology might be applied in any study areas, both to calibrate and to update the Manning's roughness coefficients in different periods. The gamma-function distribution was carried out to calculate the design rainfalls, which were later used for the correlation analysis of the annual and the daily rainfalls. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System 2D (HEC-RAS 2D) and the Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) were used for the calibration of the CN variable and for the model validation. The inundation boundaries derived in the validation process (by the HEC-RAS 2D model) were very similar to the ones achieved by the MCDA approach, corresponding to 93.92 % and 96.31 %, respectively. The interpolation methods were essential for the spatial and temporal distribution of the meteorological data in the rainfall-runoff model used for validation, and also in the GIS-based MCDA model. The final determination of the likelihood of flood susceptibility in the studied plains was based on the spatially weighted summation of the previously attributed criteria. Finally, flood susceptibility maps were generated for the different scenarios. The simulations of different rainfall patterns showed that this criterion profoundly influenced the likelihood to flood susceptibility. For the simulation of higher elevations and maximum rainfalls, the achieved index of flood susceptibility was 4 (out of 5). The main contribution of the study was the achievement of reliable parameters by the proposed techniques, that may also be used in other areas, mainly where data is scarce and complex physical constraints are involved, targeting the sustainable urban development of the regionDoutoradoRecursos Hidricos, Energeticos e AmbientaisDoutora em Engenharia Civi

TWINLATIN: Twinning European and Latin-American river basins for research enabling sustainable water resources management. Combined Report D3.1 Hydrological modelling report and D3.2 Evaluation report

Water use has almost tripled over the past 50 years and in some regions the water demand already exceeds supply (Vorosmarty et al., 2000). The world is facing a “global water crisis”; in many countries, current levels of water use are unsustainable, with systems vulnerable to collapse from even small changes in water availability. The need for a scientifically-based assessment of the potential impacts on water resources of future changes, as a basis for society to adapt to such changes, is strong for most parts of the world. Although the focus of such assessments has tended to be climate change, socio-economic changes can have as significant an impact on water availability across the four main use sectors i.e. domestic, agricultural, industrial (including energy) and environmental. Withdrawal and consumption of water is expected to continue to grow substantially over the next 20-50 years (Cosgrove & Rijsberman, 2002), and consequent changes in availability may drastically affect society and economies. One of the most needed improvements in Latin American river basin management is a higher level of detail in hydrological modelling and erosion risk assessment, as a basis for identification and analysis of mitigation actions, as well as for analysis of global change scenarios. Flow measurements are too costly to be realised at more than a few locations, which means that modelled data are required for the rest of the basin. Hence, TWINLATIN Work Package 3 “Hydrological modelling and extremes” was formulated to provide methods and tools to be used by other WPs, in particular WP6 on “Pollution pressure and impact analysis” and WP8 on “Change effects and vulnerability assessment”. With an emphasis on high and low flows and their impacts, WP3 was originally called “Hydrological modelling, flooding, erosion, water scarcity and water abstraction”. However, at the TWINLATIN kick-off meeting it was agreed that some of these issues resided more appropriately in WP6 and WP8, and so WP3 was renamed to focus on hydrological modelling and hydrological extremes. The specific objectives of WP3 as set out in the Description of Work are

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for monitoring soil erosion in Morocco

This article presents an environmental remote sensing application using a UAV that is specifically aimed at reducing the data gap between field scale and satellite scale in soil erosion monitoring in Morocco. A fixed-wing aircraft type Sirius I (MAVinci, Germany) equipped with a digital system camera (Panasonic) is employed. UAV surveys are conducted over different study sites with varying extents and flying heights in order to provide both very high resolution site-specific data and lower-resolution overviews, thus fully exploiting the large potential of the chosen UAV for multi-scale mapping purposes. Depending on the scale and area coverage, two different approaches for georeferencing are used, based on high-precision GCPs or the UAV’s log file with exterior orientation values respectively. The photogrammetric image processing enables the creation of Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) and ortho-image mosaics with very high resolution on a sub-decimetre level. The created data products were used for quantifying gully and badland erosion in 2D and 3D as well as for the analysis of the surrounding areas and landscape development for larger extents

British Geological Survey Annual Science Review 2012-13

The British Geological Survey (BGS) is part of the Natural Environment Research Council and is its principal supplier of national capability in geoscience. We advance understanding of the structure, properties and processes of the solid Earth system through interdisciplinary surveys, monitoring, modelling and research for the benefit of society. We are the UK’s premier provider of objective and authoritative geoscientific data, information and knowledge for creating wealth, using natural resources sustainably, reducing risk and living with the impacts of environmental change. Our vision To be the world’s leading centre for geoscience impact

Third ERTS Symposium: Abstracts

Abstracts are provided for the 112 papers presented at the Earth Resources Program Symposium held at Washington, D.C., 10-14 December, 1973

Thermographic Imaging in Cultural Heritage: A Short Review

Over the recent period, there has been an increasing interest in the use of pulsed infrared thermography (PT) for the non-destructive evaluation of Cultural Heritage (CH). Unlike other techniques that are commonly employed in the same field, PT enables the depth-resolved detection of different kinds of subsurface features, thus providing helpful information for both scholars and restorers. Due to this reason, several research activities are currently underway to further improve the PT effectiveness. In this manuscript, the specific use of PT for the analysis of three different types of CH, namely documentary materials, panel paintings–marquetery, and mosaics, will be reviewed. In the latter case, i.e., mosaics, passive thermography combined with ground penetrating radar (GPR) and digital microscopy (DM) have also been deepened, considering their suitability in the open field. Such items have been selected because they are characterized by quite distinct physical and structural properties and, therefore, different PT (and, in some cases, verification) approaches have been employed for their investigations

Earth resources: A continuing bibliography with indexes (issue 60)

This bibliography lists 485 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system between October 1 and December 31, 1988. Emphasis is placed on the use of remote sensing and geophysical instrumentation in spacecraft and aircraft to survey and inventory natural resources and urban areas. Subject matter is grouped according to agriculture and forestry, environmental changes and cultural resources, geodesy and cartography, geology and mineral resources, oceanography and marine resources, hydrology and water management, data processing and distribution systems, and instrumentation and sensors