Flexible transition strategies towards future well-to-wheel chains: an evolutionary modelling approach

Well to wheel (WTW) analyses mainly focus on alternative road fuel/vehicle systems that are very different from the current crude oil based individual transport system. A large share of WTW chains evaluated require changes in the energy source, new fuel production facilities, different fuel distribution systems and also modifications of the vehicles. An immediate transition to such a new system would be an unprecedented technological discontinuity. Historical examples of successful technological changes are characterized by stepwise transitions of subsystems. In this paper, we present a model that identifies likely sequences of stepwise transitions in analogy to the fitness landscape model in evolutionary biology. Applying this methodology allows for a dynamic interpretation of otherwise static WTW information. We show that sequences of transitions are path dependent, so that current decisions predetermine the future WTW system. We, therefore, argue that flexible initial transition steps that allow for different transition paths later on are favorable. Results suggest that improvements of vehicle technologies are most flexible if decision makers focus on decreasing WTW energy requirements. A full transition to diesel, as a first step, is advisable if WTW greenhouse gases should be reduced.Alternative fuels, Hydrogen, Lock-in, Fitness-landscape

LNG Small Scale Bunkering Services - La Spezia Port case study: potential scenarios for LNG supply, associated costs, energy consumption, GHGs and air pollutants for different transport modes.

Emission Control Areas (ECAs) in EU waters already have imposed a 0.1% sulphur cap and IMO has set a global limit for sulphur in fuel oil used on board ships of 0.50% m/m (mass by mass) from 1 January 2020, which enforces the cap already applicable in EU waters under the Sulphur Directive. It is widely recognized that the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) instead of conventional residual and distillate fuels will substantially reduce emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter (PM). Nonetheless, considerable uncertainty remains about the net effects of LNG- fuelled vessels on emissions. At issue are the upstream greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (mainly CO2 and methane) impacts of LNG, including the energy required to transport and handle the fuel as well as the leakage of natural gas into the atmosphere, which are highly pathway-specific and should be taken into account when a supply chain for Small Scale LNG bunkering is to be set up. As of 2014, the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive (AFID) requires Member States to ensure that an appropriate number of refuelling points for LNG are put in place at maritime ports, to enable LNG seagoing ships to circulate throughout the TEN-T Core Network by 31 December 2025. Following DAFI Adoption, Italy has transposed the Directive in its legislative framework (D.lgs. 257/2016), developed the NPF for natural gas deployment and launched the GAINN_IT Initiative, coordinated by the Italian Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, with the aim of conceiving, defining, prototyping, testing, validating and deploying, in the period 2017-2030, the Italian Network of Infrastructures of Alternative Fuels (LNG in particular) for maritime and surface transport

Vertical Structures in the Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Vertical Structures in the Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Empirical Analyses Based on Recent Developments in Transaction Cost Economics

During the last decade, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market altered substantially. Significant investments have been realized, traded volumes increased and contracting structures gained in flexibility. Various governance forms co-exist, including the poles of spot market transactions and vertical integration as well as numerous hybrid forms such as long-term contracts, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships. This dissertation empirically investigates, based on transaction cost economics and recent extensions thereof, which motivations drive companies towards the choice of hierarchical governance forms. First, the likelihood of vertical integration and the impact of inter-organizational trust as a shift parameter accounting for differences in the institutional environment are analyzed. Estimation results confirm transaction cost economics by showing that relationship-specific investments in an uncertain environment drive LNG companies to invest in successive stages along the value chain. Furthermore, the presence of inter-organizational trust increases the likelihood of less hierarchical governance modes. Second, alternative theories of the firm are linked in order to explain the menu of strategic positions recently observed in this dynamic market. Estimation results support the positioning-economizing perspective of the firm. The three strategic choices of target market position, resource profile, and organizational structure are interdependent. Third, the determinants of optimal contract length as a trade-off between the minimization of transaction costs due to repeated bilateral bargaining and the risk of being bound in an inflexible agreement in uncertain environments is discussed. Estimation results show that the presence of high asset specificity results in longer contracts whereas the need for flexibility in today’s LNG market supports shorter agreements. When firms have experience in bilateral trading, contract duration decreases. In addition, countries heavily reliant on natural gas imports via LNG are often willing to forgo some flexibility in favor of supply security. Contracts dedicated to competitive downstream markets on average are shorter than those concluded with customers in non-liberalized importing countries

Shipping and sustainability liquefied natural gas as an alternative fuel : evidence from Portugal

O transporte marítimo é um elo vital do comércio mundial graças à sua capacidade, confiabilidade e relação custo-eficácia no transporte de grande quantidade de bens; nenhum outro modo de transporte consegue alcançar tais economias de escala. Mas este argumento subestima os custos reais. A frota marítima internacional, excluindo barcos de pesca e navios militares, produziu em 2012 cerca de 796 milhões de toneladas (Mt) de dióxido de carbono (CO2) e 816 Mt de dióxido de carbono equivalente (CO2e) de gases de efeito de estufa (GEE) combinando dióxido de carbono (CO2), metano (CH4) e óxido nitroso (N2O) correspondendo a cerca de 3,1% das emissões globais (IMO-International Maritime Organization, 2015; Rahman e Mashud, 2015) e é um dos setores de mais rápido crescimento em termos de emissões de GEE (Gilbert, Bows e Starkey, 2010; Bows-Larkin, 2014) previstas aumentar entre 102% a 193% em relação aos níveis de 2000 até 2050 (Bows-Larkin, 2014), crescendo a uma taxa mais elevada do que a taxa média de todos os outros sectores, com excepção da aviação. Como as emissões marítimas são produzidas, em grande parte, em mar aberto e por navios registados em países de bandeira de conveniência, foram excluídas dos compromissos nacionais no âmbito do Protocolo de Quioto de 1997, que cedeu o controlo à IMO o organismo da ONU responsável pelo sector1. De acordo com o Maritime Knowledge Centre da IMO, a frota mercante mundial de navios com pelo menos 100 gross tonnage (tonelagem bruta) era composta por 93.161 navios no final do ano de 2016. Espera-se que um número crescente de navios mercantes entre em operação nas próximas décadas, nomeadamente navios porta-contentores de grande capacidade, navios metaneiros e outros adstritos a actividades diversificadas como produção, armazenamento e descarga de gás natural e de petróleo (em inglês Floating Production Storage and Offloading - FPSOs). Os combustíveis marítimos tradicionais também produzem emissões de óxido de enxofre (SOx), óxidos de azoto (NOx) e micropartículas e o impacto sobre o ambiente dos poluentes primários e secundários resultantes da combustão do fuelóleo pesado (HFO) tem contribui para a acidificação, eutrofização e formação de ozono (O3) fotoquímico (Bengtsson, 2011). Um efeito particularmente pernicioso na saúde das populações expostas é a mortalidade prematura relacionada com micropartículas inaláveis associadas com o aumento do cancro de pulmão e problemas cardiorrespiratórios (Corbett et al., 2007) e, embora os efeitos nocivos mais graves sejam particularmente sentidos nas zonas costeiras e em áreas próximas das atividades portuárias, estes efeitos também ocorrem no interior dos países devido às condições predominantes dos ventos (Corbett, Fischbeck and Pandis, 1999) incluindo efeitos transfronteiriços (Nore, 2011). Em Portugal e de acordo com o World Resources Institute, as emissões de CO2 com origem nos combustíveis marítimos cresceram 24,5%, entre 2003 e 2012, em linha com o crescimento mundial (de 26,8%) no mesmo período de dez anos (World Resources Institute, 2015). Nesta tese, para efeitos de monetarização das emissões produzidas pela frota mercante nacional serão utilizados os dados do Inventário Nacional de Emissões, dados de 2014, os quais revelam que, embora o contributo do sector para o registo nacional seja mínimo – devido nomeadamente à exiguidade da frota – o potencial de danos causados não é de todo despiciente. Técnicas para aumentar a eficiência energética e tecnologias de mitigação dos efeitos nocivos - scrubbers, (depuradores) e dispositivos catalíticos - têm sido desenvolvidas e implementadas -, no entanto, embora o seu contributo para a descarbonização do sector deva ser levado em conta, estas tecnologias não correspondem à alteração pretendida do paradigma energético e podem constituir um incentivo ao business-as-usual. Por outro lado, o recurso a combustíveis com menor conteúdo de enxofre como o diesel marítimo é contraproducente uma vez que as emissões dos motores a diesel foram recentemente classificadas como cancerígenas pelo Centro Internacional de Investigação do Cancro (Oeder et al, 2015). O que isto significa é que embora o diesel corresponda ao exigido futuramente pelo Regulamento Tier III emitido pela IMO, na realidade não respeita suficientemente as preocupações com a saúde humana. De qualquer modo as refinarias não teriam provavelmente capacidade suficiente de fornecer todo o diesel necessário para abastecer a frota mundial. Por outro lado, as medidas de redução de poluentes emitidas pela IMO poderão ver seus efeitos reduzidos pelo crescimento esperado da atividade marítima nas próximas décadas e são destinadas a ser adoptadas lentamente ao longo de um largo período de tempo e mostram um progresso muito lento no contexto de evitar um aumento de temperatura superior a 2ºC acima dos níveis pré-industriais (Gilbert, 2013; Bows-Larkin, 2014), daí a necessidade urgente de investir em novas tecnologias e em novos tipos de combustíveis.The objective of this Ph.D. thesis is to provide important inputs for the decarbonisation of marine transport and climate change mitigation policies concerning liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a substitute fuel. Real-world results show efficiency gains from LNG compared with traditional fossil fuels burned on-board vessel’s engines even when equipped with mitigation technologies. Yet, this is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to LNG be elected as a substitute fuel. For a fuel switch of such order of magnitude to occur within a major end-use sector, other requirements are to be fulfilled: the government intervention in the public interest, and, to justify such policy intervention, the degree of social acceptability. This is accomplished by developing a social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) performed at a regional basis after the assessment of the trade-off between the provision level of the good and Portuguese nationals’ disposable income had been examined. SCBA attaches money prices - a metric of everything that everyone can recognise - to as many costs and benefits as possible in order to uniformly weigh the policy objectives. As a result, these prices reflect the value a society ascribe to the paradigm change enabling the decision maker to form an opinion about the net social welfare effects. Empirically, emissions from the Portuguese merchant fleet weighted by their contribution for the National Inventory were used to quantify and monetise externalities compared with benefits from LNG as a substitute marine fuel. Benefits from the policy implementation are those related with the reduction of negative externalities. Costs are those determined from the price nationals are hypothetically willing-to-pay for. Conclusions show that benefits are largely superior to the costs, so action must be taken instead of a doing nothing scenario. Apart from the social ex-ante evaluation, this thesis also imprints the first step for developing furthermore complete studies in this aspect and it can help fill policy makers’ knowledge gap to what concerns to strategic energy options vis-à-vis sustainability stakeholders engagement. Although it addresses Portuguese particularities, this methodology should be applied elsewhere

Benefits and Costs of Diversification in the European Natural Gas Market

Die Dissertationsschrift thematisiert die Frage nach den Kosten und Nutzen einer Diversifikationsstrategie im europäischen Erdgasmarkt und gliedert sich in neun Kapitel. In einer Vorbetrachtung beschreiben die Kapitel eins bis vier die Ausganglage mit Blick auf Angebots- und Nachfragestrukturen sowie der Gasinfrastruktur. Unsicherheiten in Bezug auf die Entwicklung der Nachfrage, Importverfügbarkeit und Preisniveaus werden diskutiert. In einem analytischen Rahmen wird das Thema Diversifikation in den Kontext der Energiesicherheit eingeordnet. Die Kapitel fünf bis sieben befassen sich mit der Beschreibung und der Analyse des europäischen Gasmarkts. Dafür wird ein lineares Modell, GAMAMOD-EU, entwickelt, welches als stochastische Optimierung den Ausbau der Erdgasinfrastruktur unter Einbezug von drei Unsicherheitsdimensionen in den Jahren 2030 und 2045 abbildet. Zusätzlich werden drei Diversifikationsstrategien in Hinblick auf Infrastrukturentwicklung und Versorgungssicherheit analysiert. In einer Erweiterung wird der Import Grüner Gase in die Betrachtung einbezogen. Kapitel acht stellt das deutsche Gasnetzmodell GAMAMOD-DE mit einer Fallstudie vor, die die Versorgungslage im kalten Winter 2012 nachmodelliert. Im abschließenden Kapitel neun werden die zu Beginn aufgeworfenen Forschungsfragen beantwortet, politische Handlungsempfehlungen gegeben und der weitere Forschungsbedarf skizziert.:Table of Contents List of Figures List of Tables Abbreviations Country Codes Nomenclature: GAMAMOD-EU Nomenclature: GAMAMOD-DE 1 Introduction 2 Uncertainties in Gas Markets 3 Diversification in Gas Markets to Ensure Security of Supply 4 Natural Gas Infrastructure 5 The European Natural Gas Market Model (GAMAMOD-EU) 6 Results on Security of Supply in the European Gas Market 7 Impact of Green Gas Imports on Infrastructure Investments 8 The German Natural Gas Market Model (GAMAMOD-DE) 9 Conclusion and Outlook Laws and Communication Papers References AppendixThe dissertation addresses the question of the costs and benefits of a diversification strategy in the European natural gas market and is divided into nine chapters. In a preliminary analysis, chapters one to four describe the initial situation with regard to supply and demand structures as well as the gas infrastructure. Uncertainties regarding the development of demand, import availability and price levels are discussed. In an analytical framework, the topic of diversification is placed in the context of energy security. Chapters five to seven deal with the description and analysis of the European gas market. For this purpose, a linear model, GAMAMOD-EU, is developed, which maps the expansion of the natural gas infrastructure as a stochastic optimisation, taking into account three uncertainty dimensions in the years 2030 and 2045. In addition, three diversification strategies are analysed with regard to infrastructure development and security of supply. In an extension, the import of green gases is included in the analysis. Chapter eight presents the German gas grid model GAMAMOD-DE with a case study, which models the supply situation in the cold winter of 2012. In the concluding chapter nine, the research questions raised at the beginning are answered, political recommendations for action are given and the need for further research is outlined.:Table of Contents List of Figures List of Tables Abbreviations Country Codes Nomenclature: GAMAMOD-EU Nomenclature: GAMAMOD-DE 1 Introduction 2 Uncertainties in Gas Markets 3 Diversification in Gas Markets to Ensure Security of Supply 4 Natural Gas Infrastructure 5 The European Natural Gas Market Model (GAMAMOD-EU) 6 Results on Security of Supply in the European Gas Market 7 Impact of Green Gas Imports on Infrastructure Investments 8 The German Natural Gas Market Model (GAMAMOD-DE) 9 Conclusion and Outlook Laws and Communication Papers References Appendi

Supply Chain Risk Management of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in Australia

This research examines the supply chain risk management of Australia’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supply chain. The study develops a risk management methodology based on quality function deployment and 0-1 multiobjective optimization model. The research reveals 33 LNG supply chain risks and 30 risk management strategies (RMSs) for Australian LNG supply chain. Optimal sets of RMSs are found using the methodology which would be beneficial for the LNG risk managers in a limited resources scenario

Study of FSRU-LNGC System Based on a Quantitative Multi-cluster Risk Informed Model

PresentationThe offshore LNG terminal, referred to as LNG floating storage unit or floating storage and re- gasification unit (FSRU), performs well on both building process and operation process. The LNG FSRU is a cost-effective and time efficient solution for LNG transferring in the offshore area, and it brings minimal impacts to the surrounding environment as well. This paper proposed a systematic method to integrate chemical process safety with maritime safety analysis. The evaluation network was adopted to process a comparison study between two possible locations for LNG offshore FSRU. This research divided the whole process into three parts, beginning with the LNG Carrier navigating in the inbound channel, the berthing operation and ending with the completion of LNG transferring operation. The preferred location is determined by simultaneously evaluating navigation safety, berthing safety and LNG transferring safety objectives based on the quantitative multi-cluster network multi-attribute decision analysis (QMNMDA) method. The maritime safety analysis, including navigational process and berthing process, was simulated by LNG ship simulator and analyzed by statistical tools; evaluation scale for maritime safety analysis were determined by analyzing data from ninety experts. The chemical process safety simulation was employed to LNG transferring events such as connection hose rupture, flange failure by the consequence simulation tool. Two scenarios, i.e., worst case scenario and maximum credible scenario, were taken into consideration by inputting different data of evaluating parameters. The QMNMDA method transformed the evaluation criteria to one comparable unit, safety utility value, to evaluate the different alternatives. Based on the final value of the simulation, the preferred location can be determined, and the mitigation measures were presented accordingly