Multilayer perceptron neural networks model for meteosat second generation SEVIRI daytime cloud masking

A multilayer perceptron neural network cloud mask for Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager) images is introduced and evaluated. The model is trained for cloud detection on MSG SEVIRI daytime data. It consists of a multi-layer perceptron with one hidden sigmoid layer, trained with the error back-propagation algorithm. The model is fed by six bands of MSG data (0.6, 0.8, 1.6, 3.9, 6.2 and 10.8 μm) with 10 hidden nodes. The multiple-layer perceptrons lead to a cloud detection accuracy of 88.96%, when trained to map two predefined values that classify cloud and clear sky. The network was further evaluated using sixty MSG images taken at different dates. The network detected not only bright thick clouds but also thin or less bright clouds. The analysis demonstrated the feasibility of using machine learning models of cloud detection in MSG SEVIRI imagery

Improving the estimation of fire danger, fire propagation and fire monitoring : new insights using remote sensing data and statistical methods

This thesis covers three major topics related to wildfires, remote sensing and meteorology: (i) quantifying and forecasting fire danger combining numerical weather forecasts and satellite observations of fire intensity; (ii) mapping burned areas from satellite observations with multiple spatial and spectral resolution; and (iii) modelling fire progression taking into account weather conditions and fuel (vegetation) availability. Regarding the first topic, an enhanced Fire Weather Index (FWI) is proposed by using statistical methods to combine the classical FWI with an atmospheric instability index with the aim of better forecasting the fire danger conditions favourable to the development of convective fires. Furthermore, the daily definition of the classical FWI was extended to an hourly timescale, allowing for assessment of the variability of the fire danger conditions throughout the day. For the second topic, a method is proposed to map and date burned areas using sequences of daily satellite data. This method, tested over several regions around the globe, provide burned area maps that outperform other existing methods for the task, particularly regarding the consistency and accuracy of the date of burning. Furthermore, a method is proposed for fast assessment of burned areas using 10-meter resolution satellite data and making use of Google Earth Engine (GEE) as a tool for preprocessing and downloading of data that is then used as input to a deep learning model that combines a coarse burned area map with the medium resolution data to provide a refined burned area map with 10-meter resolution at event level and with low computational requirements. Finally, for the third topic, a method is proposed to estimate the fire progression over a 12-hour period with resource to an ensemble of models trained based on the reconstruction of past events. Overall, I am confident that the results obtained and presented in this thesis provide a significant contribution to the remote sensing and wildfires scientific community while opening interesting paths for future research on the topics described

Total ozone time series analysis: a neural network model approach

International audienceThis work is focused on the application of neural network based models to the analysis of total ozone (TO) time series. Processes that affect total ozone are extremely non linear, especially at the considered European mid-latitudes. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are intrinsically non-linear systems, hence they are expected to cope with TO series better than classical statistics do. Moreover, neural networks do not assume the stationarity of the data series so they are also able to follow time-changing situations among the implicated variables. These two features turn NNs into a promising tool to catch the interactions between atmospheric variables, and therefore to extract as much information as possible from the available data in order to make, for example, time series reconstructions or future predictions. Models based on NNs have also proved to be very suitable for the treatment of missing values within the data series. In this paper we present several models based on neural networks to fill the missing periods of data within a total ozone time series, and models able to reconstruct the data series. The results released by the ANNs have been compared with those obtained by using classical statistics methods, and better accuracy has been achieved with the non linear ANNs techniques. Different network structures and training strategies have been tested depending on the specific task to be accomplished

Assessing Crop Water Requirement and Yield by Combining ERA5-Land Reanalysis Data with CM-SAF Satellite-Based Radiation Data and Sentinel-2 Satellite Imagery

The widespread development of Earth Observation (EO) systems and advances in numerical atmospheric modeling have made it possible to use the newest data sources as input for crop–water balance models, thereby improving the crop water requirements (CWR) and yield estimates from the field to the regional scale. Satellite imagery and numerical weather prediction outputs offer high resolution (in time and space) gridded data that can compensate for the paucity of crop parameter field measurements and ground weather observations, as required for assessments of CWR and yield. In this study, the AquaCrop model was used to assess CWR and yield of tomato on a farm in Southern Italy by assimilating Sentinel-2 (S2) canopy cover imagery and using CM-SAF satellite-based radiation data and ERA5-Land reanalysis as forcing weather data. The prediction accuracy was evaluated with field data collected during the irrigation season (April–July) of 2021. Satellite estimates of canopy cover differed from ground observations, with a RMSE of about 11%. CWR and yield predictions were compared with actual data regarding irrigation volumes and harvested yield. The results showed that S2 estimates of crop parameters represent added value, since their assimilation into crop growth models improved CWR and yield estimates. Reliable CWR and yield estimates can be achieved by combining the ERA5-Land and CM-SAF weather databases with S2 imagery for assimilation into the AquaCrop model

Solar energy potential in a changing climate : Iberia and Azores assessment combining dynamical and statistical downscaling methods

Tese de doutoramento, Sistemas Sustentáveis de Energia, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016The proper characterization of solar radiation resource is essential for the design of any solar energy harnessing systems which aims its optimal performance. To this end, the solar resource is often quantified through solar radiation measurements at meteorological stations. Unfortunately radiation data recorded on the desired location is often inexistent. Furthermore, the actual existing solar radiation databases have also a limited temporal span and, more frequently than desired, missing values and non-uniform formats. Also, such databases consist almost entirely of global solar radiation; variables such as the nature of the solar energy (direct or diffuse) are rarely recorded. Atmospheric models can add value to solar energy applications by enabling solar resource assessments as they easily overcome the limited spatial and temporal coverage of irradiance measuring networks. Furthermore, climate models can be used for any region of the planet to assess the solar resource for not only present climate conditions but also to analyse its long-term past evolution and future tendency. Nowadays such models are a popular approach on the field of solar radiation forecasting but the quality evaluation of the solar radiation representation by such models is first of all a fundamental step to understand its usefulness. Having this in mind, in this thesis, a dynamical downscaling approach is used to evaluate simulated solar radiation at the Earth’s surface which will then enable the characterization of the solar resource. The model output is also combined with a statistical downscaling approach used in its simplest form to minimize the model biases. The work focuses primarily in the Iberian Peninsula as its large climate gradients are representative of diverse meteorological conditions, enabling therefore the adaptation of the presented methods to other regions. Then, following the same methodology, the solar resource of the Azores archipelago is also addressed. The Azores region is often neglected in solar resource assessments and solar resource maps of the Earth’s surface or even of Europe region. These methods are used to characterize the present climate renewable solar resource and analyse the impact of climate change on its projections for the end of the 21st century for both Iberia Peninsula and Azores archipelago. Atmospheric numerical models are however limited in the sense that they only provide global solar radiation, the direct normal radiation and diffuse components are not common outputs to the user. Given this, the separation of global radiation into its diffuse and direct components is analysed in this thesis through models of diffuse solar radiation fraction. One important characteristic of these models is that they are empirically derived from site-specific measurements and a model developed and validated in a very specific climate type region may not hold its suitability to other regions. This thesis focuses on the assessment of such models only for the Azores region which has not been object of this type of analysis before

The use of satellite data, meteorology and land use data to define high resolution temperature exposure for the estimation of health effects in Italy

Introduction. Despite the mounting evidence on heat-related health risks, there is limited evidence in suburban and rural areas. The limited spatial resolution of temperature data also hinders the evidence of the differential heat effect within cities due to individual and area-based characteristics. Methods. Satellite land surface temperature (LST), observed meteorological and spatial and spatio-temporal land use data were combined in mixed-effects regression models to estimate daily mean air temperature with a 1x1km resolution for the period 2000-2010. For each day, random intercepts and slopes for LST were estimated to capture the day-to-day temporal variability of the Ta–LST relationship. The models were also nested by climate zones to better capture local climates and daily weather patterns across Italy. The daily exposure data was used to estimate the effects and impacts of heat on cause-specific mortality and hospital admissions in the Lazio region at municipal level in a time series framework. Furthermore, to address the differential effect of heat within an urban area and account for potential effect modifiers a case cross-over study was conducted in Rome. Mean temperature was attributed at the individual level to the Rome Population Cohort and the urban heat island (UHI) intensity using air temperature data was calculated for Rome. Results. Exposure model performance was very good: in the stage 1 model (only on grid cells with both LST and observed data) a mean R2 value of 0.96 and RMSPE of 1.1°C and R2 of 0.89 and 0.97 for the spatial and temporal domains respectively. The model was also validated with regional weather forecasting model data and gave excellent results (R2=0.95 RMSPE=1.8°C. The time series study showed significant effects and impacts on cause-specific mortality in suburban and rural areas of the Lazio region, with risk estimates comparable to those found in urban areas. High temperatures also had an effect on respiratory hospital admissions. Age, gender, pre-existing cardiovascular disease, marital status, education and occupation were found to be effect modifiers of the temperature-mortality association. No risk gradient was found by socio-economic position (SEP) in Rome. Considering the urban heat island (UHI) and SEP combined, differential effects of heat were observed by UHI among same SEP groupings. Impervious surfaces and high urban development were also effect modifiers of the heat-related mortality risk. Finally, the study found that high resolution gridded data provided more accurate effect estimates especially for extreme temperature intervals. Conclusions. Results will help improve heat adaptation and response measures and can be used predict the future heat-related burden under different climate change scenarios.Open Acces

Remote Sensing of Precipitation: Volume 2

Precipitation is a well-recognized pillar in global water and energy balances. An accurate and timely understanding of its characteristics at the global, regional, and local scales is indispensable for a clearer understanding of the mechanisms underlying the Earth’s atmosphere–ocean complex system. Precipitation is one of the elements that is documented to be greatly affected by climate change. In its various forms, precipitation comprises a primary source of freshwater, which is vital for the sustainability of almost all human activities. Its socio-economic significance is fundamental in managing this natural resource effectively, in applications ranging from irrigation to industrial and household usage. Remote sensing of precipitation is pursued through a broad spectrum of continuously enriched and upgraded instrumentation, embracing sensors which can be ground-based (e.g., weather radars), satellite-borne (e.g., passive or active space-borne sensors), underwater (e.g., hydrophones), aerial, or ship-borne

Exploiting weather forecast data for cloud detection

Accurate, fast detection of clouds in satellite imagery has many applications, for example Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate studies of both the atmosphere and of the Earth’s surface temperature. Most operational techniques for cloud detection rely on the differences between observations of cloud and of clear-sky being more or less constant in space and in time. In reality, this is not the case - different clouds have different spectral properties, and different cloud types are more or less likely in different places and at different times, depending on atmospheric conditions and on the Earth’s surface properties. Observations of clear sky also vary in space and time, depending on atmospheric and surface conditions, and on the presence or absence of aerosol particles. The Bayesian approach adopted in this project allows pixel-specific physical information (for example from NWP) to be used to predict pixel-specific observations of clear sky. A physically-based, spatially- and temporally-specific probability that each pixel contains a cloud observation is then calculated. An advantage of this approach is that identification of ambiguously classed pixels from a probabilistic result is straightforward, in contrast to the binary result generally produced by operational techniques. This project has developed and validated the Bayesian approach to cloud detection, and has extended the range of applications for which it is suitable, achieving skills scores that match or exceed those achieved by operational methods in every case. High temperature gradients can make observations of clear sky around ocean fronts, particularly at thermal wavelengths, appear similar to cloud observations. To address this potential source of ambiguous cloud detection results, a region of imagery acquired by the AATSR sensor which was noted to contain some ocean fronts, was selected. Pixels in the region were clustered according to their spectral properties with the aim of separating pixels that correspond to different thermal regimes of the ocean. The mean spectral properties of pixels in each cluster were then processed using the Bayesian cloud detection technique and the resulting posterior probability of clear then assigned to individual pixels. Several clustering methods were investigated, and the most appropriate, which allowed pixels to be associated with multiple clusters, with a normalized vector of ‘membership strengths’, was used to conduct a case study. The distribution of final calculated probabilities of clear became markedly more bimodal when clustering was included, indicating fewer ambiguous classifications, but at the cost of some single pixel clouds being missed. While further investigations could provide a solution to this, the computational expense of the clustering method made this impractical to include in the work of this project. This new Bayesian approach to cloud detection has been successfully developed by this project to a point where it has been released under public license. Initially designed as a tool to aid retrieval of sea surface temperature from night-time imagery, this project has extended the Bayesian technique to be suitable for imagery acquired over land as well as sea, and for day-time as well as for night-time imagery. This was achieved using the land surface emissivity and surface reflectance parameter products available from the MODIS sensor. This project added a visible Radiative Transfer Model (RTM), developed at University of Edinburgh, and a kernel-based surface reflectance model, adapted here from that used by the MODIS sensor, to the cloud detection algorithm. In addition, the cloud detection algorithm was adapted to be more flexible, making its implementation for data from the SEVIRI sensor straightforward. A database of ‘difficult’ cloud and clear targets, in which a wide range of both spatial and temporal locations was represented, was provided by M´et´eo-France and used in this work to validate the extensions made to the cloud detection scheme and to compare the skill of the Bayesian approach with that of operational approaches. For night land and sea imagery, the Bayesian technique, with the improvements and extensions developed by this project, achieved skills scores 10% and 13% higher than M´et´eo-France respectively. For daytime sea imagery, the skills scores were within 1% of each other for both approaches, while for land imagery the Bayesian method achieved a 2% higher skills score. The main strength of the Bayesian technique is the physical basis of the differentiation between clear and cloud observations. Using NWP information to predict pixel-specific observations for clear-sky is relatively straightforward, but making such predictions for cloud observations is more complicated. The technique therefore relies on an empirical distribution rather than a pixel-specific prediction for cloud observations. To try and address this, this project developed a means of predicting cloudy observations through the fast forward-modelling of pixel-specific NWP information. All cloud fields in the pixel-specific NWP data were set to 0, and clouds were added to the profile at discrete intervals through the atmosphere, with cloud water- and ice- path (cwp, cip) also set to values spaced exponentially at discrete intervals up to saturation, and with cloud pixel fraction set to 25%, 50%, 75% and 100%. Only single-level, single-phase clouds were modelled, with the justification that the resulting distribution of predicted observations, once smoothed through considerations of uncertainties, is likely to include observations that would correspond to multi-phase and multi-level clouds. A fast RTM was run on the profile information for each of these individual clouds and cloud altitude-, cloud pixel fraction- and channel-specific relationships between cwp (and similarly cip) and predicted observations were calculated from the results of the RTM. These relationships were used to infer predicted observations for clouds with cwp/cip values other than those explicitly forward modelled. The parameters used to define the relationships were interpolated to define relationships for predicted observations of cloud at 10m vertical intervals through the atmosphere, with pixel coverage ranging from 25% to 100% in increments of 1%. A distribution of predicted cloud observations is then achieved without explicit forward-modelling of an impractical number of atmospheric states. Weights are applied to the representation of individual clouds within the final Probability Density Function (PDF) in order to make the distribution of predicted observations realistic, according to the pixel-specific NWP data, and to distributions seen in a global reference dataset of NWP profiles from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). The distribution is then convolved with uncertainties in forward-modelling, in the NWP data, and with sensor noise to create the final PDF in observation space, from which the conditional probability that the pixel observation corresponds to a cloud observation can be read. Although the relatively fast computational implementation of the technique was achieved, the results are disappointingly poor for the SEVIRI-acquired dataset, provided by M´et´eo-France, against which validation was carried out. This is thought to be explained by both the uncertainties in the NWP data, and the forward-modelling dependence on those uncertainties, being poorly understood, and treated too optimistically in the algorithm. Including more errors in the convolution introduces the problem of quantifying those errors (a non-trivial task), and would increase the processing time, making implementation impractical. In addition, if the uncertianties considered are too high then a PDF flatter than the empirical distribution currently used would be produced, making the technique less useful. It is hoped that advances in NWP will result in the implementation of this technique in the Bayesian cloud detection algorithm yielding improved results in the future. At present no clear improvement is seen and the computational expense of including the local cloud PDF calcluation in the algorithm is therefore judged unjustified. The Bayesian method for cloud detection calculates a probability that an observation corresponds to a particular class: clear or cloud. Provided the necessary background information is available, this can be adapted to calculate a probability that an observation corresponds to any number of classes. This was demonstrated here, where the approach was adapted to detect dust, cloud and clear sky simultaneously in a night-time image over sea (generally the most challenging scenario for dust detection). The need for cloud-screening prior to retrieving aerosol observations, which necessarily biases recorded observations of aerosol to those aerosol observations which are spectrally more similar to clear sky than to cloud, is thereby removed for dust. A distribution of simulated Saharan dust observations from another study was used to calculate a PDF, which was made conditional on the pixel NWP Surface Temperature (ST) and Total Column Water Vapour (TCWV). This was combined with the empirical PDF for cloud and the calculated, NWP-conditional, PDF for clear to calculate the normalized posterior probabilities that the pixel observation corresponds to each of the three classes. The latitudeand season-specific prior probabilities required by Bayes Theorem were taken for cloud and clear from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data, and from a dataset of SEVIRI-acquired imagery, for which the Saharan Dust Index (SDI, a measure of the presence of dust) had been calculated, for dust. There being no cloud-clear-dust classified data available for validation, the technique was validated qualitatively through comparison of the three-way classification results against the results of the two-way classification (cloud and clear), and against calculated SDI results (a measure to discriminate between clear and dust). 22 night-time images acquired by the SEVIRI sensor between 2004 and 2006 were used for the validation, and show the technique to produce highly plausible results, although a quantitative assessment is difficult to find. This thesis presents the work undertaken to carry out these developments and extensions to a Bayesian cloud detection scheme. Through this work, several challenges to the technique, such as for example ambiguous classification of pixels around ocean fronts and non-latitude specific prior probabilities of cloud and clear, have been investigated and addressed. The project has extended the range of applications for which the cloud detection technique can be useful to include day-time- and land- imagery applications, in addition to the night-time ocean applications for which it was initially designed. In addition, the work undertaken here has resulted in the method has becoming more physically robust, and more thoroughly validated. A further outcome of this work is the application of the cloud detection technique to the successful classification of imagery into cloud, clear and dust observations, providing a potential solution to areas of NWP and climate research

Remote Sensing of Biophysical Parameters

Vegetation plays an essential role in the study of the environment through plant respiration and photosynthesis. Therefore, the assessment of the current vegetation status is critical to modeling terrestrial ecosystems and energy cycles. Canopy structure (LAI, fCover, plant height, biomass, leaf angle distribution) and biochemical parameters (leaf pigmentation and water content) have been employed to assess vegetation status and its dynamics at scales ranging from kilometric to decametric spatial resolutions thanks to methods based on remote sensing (RS) data.Optical RS retrieval methods are based on the radiative transfer processes of sunlight in vegetation, determining the amount of radiation that is measured by passive sensors in the visible and infrared channels. The increased availability of active RS (radar and LiDAR) data has fostered their use in many applications for the analysis of land surface properties and processes, thanks to their insensitivity to weather conditions and the ability to exploit rich structural and texture information. Optical and radar data fusion and multi-sensor integration approaches are pressing topics, which could fully exploit the information conveyed by both the optical and microwave parts of the electromagnetic spectrum.This Special Issue reprint reviews the state of the art in biophysical parameters retrieval and its usage in a wide variety of applications (e.g., ecology, carbon cycle, agriculture, forestry and food security)

Desert dust outbreak in the Canary Islands (February 2020): assessment and impacts

World Weather Research Programme (WWRP 2021–1