PHYSTAT-LHC Workshop on Statistical Issues for LHC Physics

A PHYSTAT workshop on the topic of Statistical issues for LHC physics was held at CERN. The workshop focused on issues related to discovery that we hope will be relevant to the LHC. These proceedings contain written versions of nearly all the talks, several of which were given by professional statisticians. The talks varied from general overviews, to those describing searches for specific particles. The treatment of background uncertainties figured prominently. Many of the talks describing search strategies for new effects should be of interest not only to particle physicists but also to scientists in other fields

Chemometrics Using R

Although you may not yet know what we mean by the term chemometrics, you almost certainly make routine use of chemometric techniques in your classes and labs: reporting an average result for several trials of an experiment or creating a calibration curve and using it to find an analyte’s concentration are two examples of chemometric methods analysis with which you almost certainly are familiar. The goal of this textbook is to provide an introduction to chemometrics suitable for the undergraduate chemistry curriculum at the junior or senior level; indeed, much of this textbook\u27s content, including many of the examples and exercises, were developed to support Chem 351: Chemometrics, a course that has been part of the analytical curriculum at DePauw University since 2001 and that has been grounded in R since 2005

Design and optimization under uncertainty of Energy Systems

In many engineering design and optimisation problems, the presence of uncertainty in data and parameters is a central and critical issue. The analysis and design of advanced complex energy systems is generally performed starting from a single operating condition and assuming a series of design and operating parameters as fixed values. However, many of the variables on which the design is based are subject to uncertainty because they are not determinable with an adequate precision and they can affect both performance and cost. Uncertainties stem naturally from our limitations in measurements, predictions and manufacturing, and we can say that any system used in engineering is subject to some degree of uncertainty. Different fields of engineering use different ways to describe this uncertainty and adopt a variety of techniques to approach the problem. The past decade has seen a significant growth of research and development in uncertainty quantification methods to analyse the propagation of uncertain inputs through the systems. One of the main challenges in this field are identifying sources of uncertainty that potentially affect the outcomes and the efficiency in propagating these uncertainties from the sources to the quantities of interest, especially when there are many sources of uncertainties. Hence, the level of rigor in uncertainty analysis depends on the quality of uncertainty quantification method. The main obstacle of this analysis is often the computational effort, because the representative model is typically highly non-linear and complex. Therefore, it is necessary to have a robust tool that can perform the uncertainty propagation through a non-intrusive approach with as few evaluations as possible. The primary goal of this work is to show a robust method for uncertainty quantification applied to energy systems. The first step in this direction was made doing a work on the analysis of uncertainties on a recuperator for micro gas turbines, making use of the Monte Carlo and Response Sensitivity Analysis methodologies to perform this study. However, when considering more complex energy systems, one of the main weaknesses of uncertainty quantification methods arises: the extremely high computational effort needed. For this reason, the application of a so-called metamodel was found necessary and useful. This approach was applied to perform a complete analysis under uncertainty of a solid oxide fuel cell hybrid system, starting from the evaluation of the impact of several uncertainties on the system up to a robust design including a multi-objective optimization. The response surfaces have allowed the authors to consider the uncertainties in the system when performing an acceptable number of simulations. These response were then used to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the impact of the uncertainties on the monitored outputs, giving an insight on the spread of the resulting probability density functions and so on the outputs which should be considered more carefully during the design phase. Finally, the analysis of a complex combined cycle with a flue gas condesing heat pump subject to market uncertainties was performed. To consider the uncertainties in the electrical price, which would impact directly the revenues of the system, a statistical study on the behaviour of such price along the years was performed. From the data obtained it was possible to create a probability density function for each hour of the day which would represent its behaviour, and then those distributions were used to analyze the variability of the system in terms of revenues and emissions

Attitudes towards old age and age of retirement across the world: findings from the future of retirement survey

The 21st century has been described as the first era in human history when the world will no longer be young and there will be drastic changes in many aspects of our lives including socio-demographics, financial and attitudes towards the old age and retirement. This talk will introduce briefly about the Global Ageing Survey (GLAS) 2004 and 2005 which is also popularly known as “The Future of Retirement”. These surveys provide us a unique data source collected in 21 countries and territories that allow researchers for better understanding the individual as well as societal changes as we age with regard to savings, retirement and healthcare. In 2004, approximately 10,000 people aged 18+ were surveyed in nine counties and one territory (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Mexico, UK and USA). In 2005, the number was increased to twenty-one by adding Egypt, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sweden, Turkey and South Korea). Moreover, an additional 6320 private sector employers was surveyed in 2005, some 300 in each country with a view to elucidating the attitudes of employers to issues relating to older workers. The paper aims to examine the attitudes towards the old age and retirement across the world and will indicate some policy implications

Evaluation of sensor, environment and operational factors impacting the use of multiple sensor constellations for long term resource monitoring

Moderate resolution remote sensing data offers the potential to monitor the long and short term trends in the condition of the Earth’s resources at finer spatial scales and over longer time periods. While improved calibration (radiometric and geometric), free access (Landsat, Sentinel, CBERS), and higher level products in reflectance units have made it easier for the science community to derive the biophysical parameters from these remotely sensed data, a number of issues still affect the analysis of multi-temporal datasets. These are primarily due to sources that are inherent in the process of imaging from single or multiple sensors. Some of these undesired or uncompensated sources of variation include variation in the view angles, illumination angles, atmospheric effects, and sensor effects such as Relative Spectral Response (RSR) variation between different sensors. The complex interaction of these sources of variation would make their study extremely difficult if not impossible with real data, and therefore, a simulated analysis approach is used in this study. A synthetic forest canopy is produced using the Digital Imaging and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) model and its measured BRDFs are modeled using the RossLi canopy BRDF model. The simulated BRDF matches the real data to within 2% of the reflectance in the red and the NIR spectral bands studied. The BRDF modeling process is extended to model and characterize the defoliation of a forest, which is used in factor sensitivity studies to estimate the effect of each factor for varying environment and sensor conditions. Finally, a factorial experiment is designed to understand the significance of the sources of variation, and regression based analysis are performed to understand the relative importance of the factors. The design of experiment and the sensitivity analysis conclude that the atmospheric attenuation and variations due to the illumination angles are the dominant sources impacting the at-sensor radiance