Time-varying coefficient models for the analysis of air pollution and health outcome data

In this article a time-varying coefficient model is developed to examine the relationship between adverse health and short-term (acute) exposure to air pollution. This model allows the relative risk to evolve over time, which may be due to an interaction with temperature, or from a change in the composition of pollutants, such as particulate matter, over time. The model produces a smooth estimate of these time-varying effects, which are not constrained to follow a fixed parametric form set by the investigator. Instead, the shape is estimated from the data using penalized natural cubic splines. Poisson regression models, using both quasi-likelihood and Bayesian techniques, are developed, with estimation performed using an iteratively re-weighted least squares procedure and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, respectively. The efficacy of the methods to estimate different types of time-varying effects are assessed via a simulation study, and the models are then applied to data from four cities that were part of the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study

Global Optimization for Future Gravitational Wave Detectors' Sites

We consider the optimal site selection of future generations of gravitational wave detectors. Previously, Raffai et al. optimized a 2-detector network with a combined figure of merit. This optimization was extended to networks with more than two detectors in a limited way by first fixing the parameters of all other component detectors. In this work we now present a more general optimization that allows the locations of all detectors to be simultaneously chosen. We follow the definition of Raffai et al. on the metric that defines the suitability of a certain detector network. Given the locations of the component detectors in the network, we compute a measure of the network's ability to distinguish the polarization, constrain the sky localization and reconstruct the parameters of a gravitational wave source. We further define the `flexibility index' for a possible site location, by counting the number of multi-detector networks with a sufficiently high Figure of Merit that include that site location. We confirm the conclusion of Raffai et al., that in terms of flexibility index as defined in this work, Australia hosts the best candidate site to build a future generation gravitational wave detector. This conclusion is valid for either a 3-detector network or a 5-detector network. For a 3-detector network site locations in Northern Europe display a comparable flexibility index to sites in Australia. However for a 5-detector network, Australia is found to be a clearly better candidate than any other location.Comment: 30 pages, 23 figures, 2 table

Construction of Bayesian Deformable Models via Stochastic Approximation Algorithm: A Convergence Study

The problem of the definition and the estimation of generative models based on deformable templates from raw data is of particular importance for modelling non aligned data affected by various types of geometrical variability. This is especially true in shape modelling in the computer vision community or in probabilistic atlas building for Computational Anatomy (CA). A first coherent statistical framework modelling the geometrical variability as hidden variables has been given by Allassonni\`ere, Amit and Trouv\'e (JRSS 2006). Setting the problem in a Bayesian context they proved the consistency of the MAP estimator and provided a simple iterative deterministic algorithm with an EM flavour leading to some reasonable approximations of the MAP estimator under low noise conditions. In this paper we present a stochastic algorithm for approximating the MAP estimator in the spirit of the SAEM algorithm. We prove its convergence to a critical point of the observed likelihood with an illustration on images of handwritten digits

BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>BEAST version 1.4.6 consists of 81000 lines of Java source code, 779 classes and 81 packages. It provides models for DNA and protein sequence evolution, highly parametric coalescent analysis, relaxed clock phylogenetics, non-contemporaneous sequence data, statistical alignment and a wide range of options for prior distributions. BEAST source code is object-oriented, modular in design and freely available at <url>http://beast-mcmc.googlecode.com/</url> under the GNU LGPL license.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>BEAST is a powerful and flexible evolutionary analysis package for molecular sequence variation. It also provides a resource for the further development of new models and statistical methods of evolutionary analysis.</p