[Rezension zu:] Eleni Apospori and Judith Miller, eds. The Dynamics of Social Exclusion in Europe: Comparing Austria, Germany, Greece, Portugal and the UK. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2003. xvi + 199 pp. Tables, notes, graphs, index. $ 80.00 (cloth), ISBN 1-84064-893-7

The volume consists of eight essays with a precise focus: the study of the "dynamics of social exclusion" as reflected in data available for 1994 to 1996, when a detailed survey of a sample of households in EU countries, the "European Community Households Panel," was conducted. On the basis of these data, the authors document the extent and prevalence of poverty generally and specifically in regard to particular risk groups defined in terms of age, health and personal circumstances (young adults, lone parents, people with sickness or disability and retirees).[1] The analysis was carried out for five countries: Austria, Germany, Greece, Portugal and the United Kingdom, which were taken to be representative of the extremes of EU membership: north and south; wealthy and poor; large and small. The essays discuss income poverty (measured as incomes at 40, 50 or 60 percent of median incomes) as well as housing problems, access to basic necessities like food and utilities, access to consumer durables and social interactions. The essays document not only that the extent of poverty varies between countries--a well-known fact--but also that its causes and effects continue to differ even in an increasingly united western Europe. Austria had the lowest proportion of the population in poor households (17 percent--compared to 18 percent in Germany, 21 percent in the United Kingdom and Greece, and 24 percent in Portugal). While sickness and disability were likely to impoverish individuals in all the countries studied, this was particularly true of Austria, Germany and the United Kingdom (that is, northern Europe); retirement was more likely to result in income poverty in the south. The north-south divide was less relevant for parents; single income households with children were particularly likely to suffer from income poverty in the United Kingdom, Germany and Portugal. Poverty was more likely to be persistent than merely a brief phase in the life cycle. Persistence rates of income poverty were around 80 percent in Greece and Britain, above 70 percent in Portugal and above 60 percent in Germany and Austria. But the effects were rather different. In the United Kingdom, high persistence rates of income poverty coincided with low persistence rates (34 percent) of amenities deprivation, whereas the persistence of necessities deprivation was relatively low in Greece at 39 percent. The volume was conceived as a contribution to policy decision-making in the aftermath of the 2000 Lisbon Declaration, which focused (among other things) on poverty and encouraged member states to set more concrete targets for dealing with social exclusion. Some member states did so; Britain, for example--a country where income poverty was particularly likely to result in deprivation of basic necessities--vowed to abolish "poverty" by 2020. The volume is a treasure-trove of data and empirical analysis; it makes essential, though at times rather trying, reading for anyone interested in the extent of social exclusion, and the likelihood of falling into or escaping from it. It also provides ample proof--if any were needed--that governments seeking to combat social exclusion have to set different priorities, because they are not attacking the same phenomenon. Unfortunately, the empirical as well as the more conceptual contributions reveal some of the approach's and the book's shortcomings.[2] The book's very advantage--providing a precise research agenda--is also a drawback. With its focus on three years, and on the life-cycle rather than more stable factors such as ethnicity, occupation or regional origin, the volume presents a particular image of the risk (and duration) of deprivation, which may be more or less comprehensive for different countries. The narrow temporal focus makes one wonder whether measuring poverty's "persistence" of poverty makes much sense for such a relatively short time. Such doubt is enhanced when considering some of the oddities in the results: how did households that remained poor in the United Kingdom manage to get their hands on consumer durables? (The same question could be asked for the sudden increase in access to necessities in Greek households.) Illustrating the empirical findings with more concrete examples would have been helpful, particularly when they are counterintuitive, for instance the statement that patterns of poverty in eastern and western Germany were converging in spite of the continuing divergence in unemployment patterns. Another question--admittedly suggested by events of the last several years--is whether ethnicity, regional origins or occupations are not more important in determining the extent and duration of social exclusion than life cycle. These factors were not, and partly could not be, measured on the basis of the data used, but have moved to the center of policy debates today. This matter relates to another issue the book does not address: who is to blame for poverty, and what roles have governments and the European Union assumed in determining poverty patterns and trends? Have past policy choices--for instance, cutting benefits; increasing "flexibility" in labor markets; encouraging the emigration of jobs (such things the European Union is frequently accused of doing)--made a difference? Is combating poverty a serious policy agenda, or merely window-dressing to make the "reforms" that were key to the Lisbon agenda for modernizing the EU more palatable? Europe seems to be facing an internal contradiction between the agenda of competition and privatization (which results in higher access costs to essential services for "low value" customers) and the agenda of abolishing poverty. This contradiction is partly sustained by U.K. data. Which element is and should be more important to the European Union or national governments is hotly debated, but of course serious contributions to the debate require a comprehensive review of the present state of affairs through the type of careful studies of which this volume is an excellent example

[Rezension zu:] Douglas G. Morris. Justice Imperiled: The Anti-Nazi Lawyer Max Hirschberg in Weimar Germany. Social History, Popular Culture, and Politics in Germany Series. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2005. xii + 443 pp. Illustration, notes, bibliography, index. $ 35.00 (cloth), ISBN 0-472-11476-X

Douglas G. Morris's excellent book poses a broad question: what happened to the rule of law in Germany after 1919? How severe was the collapse of judicial impartiality and competence? Can one doubt whether the Weimar Republic ever qualified as a republic, "if a necessary part of a republic is a judiciary committed to democratic ideals and impartial justice" (p. 1)? That there was a collapse in judicial impartiality is hardly in doubt. As early as 1922, Emil Julius Gumbel provided statistical proof: between late 1918 and summer 1922, a total of 354 political murders committed by perpetrators affiliated with the political right had been punished with one life sentence plus 90 years and 2 months imprisonment; in 326 cases, there had been no punishment at all. By contrast, the 22 murders committed by left-wing sympathizers in the same period had been punished with 10 death sentences, 3 life sentences and 248 years and 9 months imprisonment; only 4 perpetrators escaped (p. 1). To be sure, this statistic may indicate more about the political leanings of police officials and prosecutors investigating cases than of judges who rule on the evidence put before them, but the divergence in sentencing remains remarkable. Morris reformulates this insight to ask how Germany's judges, trained to apply the law in an impartial and technically correct manner, could become raving political partisans willing to twist the law in favor of a particular political position. He does not seek to provide a comprehensive answer, but focuses on cases which involved Max Hirschberg, a Jewish attorney who practiced in Munich from 1911 to 1934, when he escaped to Italy. Hirschberg moved on to the United States in 1939, where he died in 1964. Hirschberg was not only involved in the major political trials of the day in 1920s and early 1930s Munich, but also developed a systematic interest in judicial error, which culminated in a major work on Das Fehlurteil im Strafprozeß, published in 1960. Morris is interested primarily in how trials were conducted. This in-depth analysis is divided into three blocks: political trials in 1922 and 1925, when Germany's war guilt and the causes of defeat were treated in libel suits and criminal prosecutions; non-political cases in which Hirschberg succeeded in having judicial errors reversed; finally, political cases linked with the rise of the Nazi party from 1926. In each case, Morris offers a clear exposition of the facts and substantial as well as legal issues in the case, a step-by-step analysis of trials and appeals processes, and an evaluation of the outcome. The main lines of argument which emerge from these analyses are, first, that some problems were peculiar to Bavaria. The main issue was the existence of people's courts, introduced during Bavaria's brief socialist phase to provide swift justice. The people's courts did not just increase judges' freedom of action by abolishing procedural safeguards, but also protected judges from professional scrutiny and criticism because there were to be no appeals. One of Hirschberg's major victories in the cases of the early 1920s was successful lobbying for their reintroduction. Second, Munich's judges may have been particularly traumatized by the brief revolutionary episode (and by the political preferences of Bavaria's ministries, which were systematically anti-Republican); moreover, they were called upon to decide a stream of political trials, some of which--notably libel trials--effectively sought the impossible, namely a definitive judicial ruling on the validity of a certain interpretation of history or a personal political position. Third, in spite of significant personal variations in style and substance, even after the reintroduction of appeals judges tended to use their freedom of maneuver in an anti-left-wing (which implicitly meant pro-National Socialist) sense. However, until 1933, this state of affairs did not challenge the ties which bound the profession. The Bavarian ministry of justice failed in its attempts to have Hirschberg disbarred in the early 1920s. Even when Hirschberg was released from so-called protective custody in 1934, most of his colleagues rallied round the decorated war veteran, allowing him to retain an access to the court building that was denied most Jewish attorneys. Finally, the problems of the justice system affected non-political cases as well, which may have deepened distrust of Republican institutions. The meticulously researched book benefits immensely from its author's experience as a practicing attorney familiar with courtroom drama and legal technicalities, which are vividly recreated and succinctly explained. The focus on Hirschberg illustrates both the immense obstacles a defense attorney faced and the victories an exceptionally gifted attorney could still win. Even though the courtroom perspective disregards some of the motivations which have their roots outside court--be it the social structure of and career perspectives in Munich's legal profession or political pressures on judges--these are not the main focus of Morris's research. Finally, one could argue about the optimist portrayal of pre-1918 German justice in politically sensitive cases. The clear focus on Weimar trials ensures that the book is no biography. Although Morris includes brief chapters on Hirschberg's youth and his years in exile, not much information is offered on Hirschberg's private life, the economics of his legal practice or his time in exile. But this decision does not diminish Morris's achievement in providing a fascinating insight into the workings of Weimar justice

[Rezension zu:] Jochen Oltmer. Migration und Politik in der Weimarer Republik. Göttingen: Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, 2005. 564 pp. Illustrations, tables, notes, bibliography, index. EUR 49.90 (cloth), ISBN 978-3-525-36-282-X

The history of German migration policies was a growth industry during the 1990s. The political battles of the present, such as asylum legislation, integration, and citizenship reform, created growing interest in the German historical experience of migration, migration controls and citizenship law. At the time, the only major work to tackle the subject was Klaus Bade's pioneering study of Prussian migration policies before the First World War, recently republished in an updated edition.[1] Initially, interest in German migration policies was guided largely by two leading questions. Histories of citizenship in Germany tended to adopt a long or a comparative perspective, which sought to test the hypothesis that German citizenship law and its implementation in practice reflected a particularly ethnic German conception of nationhood.[2] Histories of migration policy, by contrast, tended to focus on particular episodes in which a German tendency to view migrants primarily with regard to their usefulness, and not as potential immigrants and future citizens, clearly emerged, especially with regards to histories of the German Empire, the First World War, National Socialism, the Second World War and the post-war treatment of Gastarbeiter. The Weimar Republic, in contrast, was usually passed over in a few pages that highlighted the continuity of labor market control.[3] This state of affairs was remarkable because research on other countries highlighted the interwar period as an epoch of massive change in international migration policies. Race and ethnicity loomed larger than they had before, as indicated by the implementation of a quota system and barred zones in the United States. Moreover, with the First World War came the introduction of documentation requirements and the creation of labor-management bureaucracies that facilitated the distinction between citizens and aliens, as well as attempts to match labor supply to labor demand. Gérard Noiriel had even gone so far as to argue, largely with a view to migration and documentation policies, that the practices of Vichy had their roots in republican reforms of the late 1920s and 1930s.[4] Jochen Oltmer's magisterialHabilitationsschrift closes this gap all but completely. Based on a thorough reading of the archival record and contemporary public debate, his book shows that the transition from the politics of the First World War to the politics of National Socialism in the years of a labor shortage was more complicated previously assumed. He also highlights that migration policy was a field in which the Weimar Republic's problems emerged with particular poignancy. Oltmer's account is organized thematically rather than chronologically, though his subjects are arranged in the order in which they emerged as the main foci of internal administrative and public political debate. In the Weimar Republic's early years, these topics concerned ethnic Germans left outside the Empire's post-Versailles borders, prisoners of war and political refugees. In the later years, the position of migrant workers gained more prominence. While publicly committed to aiding fellow Germans, the republic's practice was ambivalent. The arrival of former residents of Alsace--mostly skilled workers in industries where labor was in demand, from a territory unlikely to be re-conquered soon--was welcome, but emigration of ethnic Germans from areas under Polish control was actively discouraged. The official view of these potential emigrants was less positive, their numbers were larger by several orders of magnitude and maintaining a visible German minority outside Germany's eastern borders seemed a good way to bolster the German case for a revision of the Treaty of Versailles. Migrants from Poland who could not prove they had been persecuted could therefore only expect accommodation in forbidding refugee camps in remote locations. As Oltmer's third chapter shows, this attitude also shaped the Weimar Republic's response to ethnic German emigration from Russia, which peaked during the famine years of the 1920s. Individual ethnicity was, therefore, not a dominant factor in the treatment of refugees; aliens of all ethnic backgrounds remained in a precarious position in the Weimar Republic, regardless of whether they were former prisoners of war who had opted to stay, or Jewish refugees from eastern and southeastern Europe who loomed relatively large in public debates or refugees from Soviet Russia. Ethnicity and race also loomed large in debates on the desirability of labor immigration. In general, the attitudes of state governments had more or less come full circle since the days of the empire. Whereas Prussia had been most concerned about the impact of Polish immigrants on national homogeneity before 1914, Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg proved most rigid after 1919. However, the majority of migrant workers were interested in jobs in Prussia, in the industrial areas of the Ruhr and, more prominently, in the agricultural east, which continued to rely on the access to Polish labor markets, particularly for potato planting and harvesting. In theory, the states and the empire had a powerful new tool to control labor migration: the obligatory work permit, issued only if no German applicants could be found for a job. Things were, however, not so simple in practice. Political interest in ethnic homogeneity was equal to interest in increasing the supply of food, a goal that could only be achieved, East Elbian landowners claimed, if Polish seasonal workers remained available to German employers. Immigration was, however, regarded with distaste by the völkisch right, Prussia's conservative bureaucracy and the Social Democrats, who viewed Polish laborers as an obstacle to the long-overdue modernization of rural Prussia through mechanization and unionization. The solution, fixed quotas for migrant laborers set to decline every year, proved unworkable, as rural employers turned to undocumented laborers. Moreover, the German government did its bit to undermine respect for legality in immigration matters. Seeking to reimpose a de facto policy forcing Polish migrants to return home for part of the year to prevent their settlement in Poland, German officials came into conflict with Polish determination to cut the state's ties to long-term emigrants, and were frequently forced to aid migrants in clandestinely crossing the border, before an unequal agreement could be concluded with Poland in 1927 that confirmed the status of Polish workers as second-class migrants excluded from social insurance and subject to a forced return for part of the year. Oltmer's comprehensively documented study does more than simply fill a gap in existing research. He unearths a striking pattern to Weimar policies, which could be found in many other fields of policy and may contribute to explaining why successive Weimar governments had such a difficult time in gaining the population's respect. Public pronouncements frequently contradicted secret or semi-secret policies. Official quotas for foreign workers, for example, were unofficially raised and little attempt was made to sanction employers of undocumented workers. Such actions exposed the Republic to criticism from the right and created a climate in which even more restrictive National Socialist policies could acquire broad popular support. Oltmer's book thus treats a question at the center, not the periphery, of the Weimar years

[Rezension zu:] Jonathan Wagner. A History of Migration from Germany to Canada, 1850-1939. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press, 2006. 281 pp. Notes, bibliography, index. $29.95 (paper), ISBN 9780774812153

Jonathan Wagner has written a monograph on a migration movement that was in many ways a peripheral one. From a Canadian perspective, Germans accounted for a relatively minor share of immigrants, compared to former residents of the British Isles, of eastern or southern Europe. Seen from Germany, Canada was one of many destinations for migrants who wished to leave the country and were prepared to travel over long distances, but were, for whatever reason, not attracted by the United States, the destination for the overwhelming majority of transcontinental emigrants. Nevertheless, the movement from Germany to Canada was significant in absolute and often symbolic terms. The way Wagner tells it, the story of German-Canadian migration was a tale of parallel experiences: both Germany and Canada experienced federation and increasing international autonomy from the 1860s; both were ruled by domineering conservative figures presiding over de facto liberalization in the 1870s; both participated in the First World War, and both went through traumatic economic crises in the interwar period. ..

Semiparametric Bayesian models for human brain mapping

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has led to enormous progress in human brain mapping. Adequate analysis of the massive spatiotemporal data sets generated by this imaging technique, combining parametric and non-parametric components, imposes challenging problems in statistical modelling. Complex hierarchical Bayesian models in combination with computer-intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo inference are promising tools.The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it provides a review of general semiparametric Bayesian models for the analysis of fMRI data. Most approaches focus on important but separate temporal or spatial aspects of the overall problem, or they proceed by stepwise procedures. Therefore, as a second aim, we suggest a complete spatiotemporal model for analysing fMRI data within a unified semiparametric Bayesian framework. An application to data from a visual stimulation experiment illustrates our approach and demonstrates its computational feasibility

Propriety of Posteriors in Structured Additive Regression Models: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Structured additive regression comprises many semiparametric regression models such as generalized additive (mixed) models, geoadditive models, and hazard regression models within a unified framework. In a Bayesian formulation, nonparametric functions, spatial effects and further model components are specified in terms of multivariate Gaussian priors for high-dimensional vectors of regression coefficients. For several model terms, such as penalised splines or Markov random fields, these Gaussian prior distributions involve rank-deficient precision matrices, yielding partially improper priors. Moreover, hyperpriors for the variances (corresponding to inverse smoothing parameters) may also be specified as improper, e.g. corresponding to Jeffery's prior or a flat prior for the standard deviation. Hence, propriety of the joint posterior is a crucial issue for full Bayesian inference in particular if based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. We establish theoretical results providing sufficient (and sometimes necessary) conditions for propriety and provide empirical evidence through several accompanying simulation studies

Structured additive regression for multicategorical space-time data: A mixed model approach

In many practical situations, simple regression models suffer from the fact that the dependence of responses on covariates can not be sufficiently described by a purely parametric predictor. For example effects of continuous covariates may be nonlinear or complex interactions between covariates may be present. A specific problem of space-time data is that observations are in general spatially and/or temporally correlated. Moreover, unobserved heterogeneity between individuals or units may be present. While, in recent years, there has been a lot of work in this area dealing with univariate response models, only limited attention has been given to models for multicategorical space-time data. We propose a general class of structured additive regression models (STAR) for multicategorical responses, allowing for a flexible semiparametric predictor. This class includes models for multinomial responses with unordered categories as well as models for ordinal responses. Non-linear effects of continuous covariates, time trends and interactions between continuous covariates are modelled through Bayesian versions of penalized splines and flexible seasonal components. Spatial effects can be estimated based on Markov random fields, stationary Gaussian random fields or two-dimensional penalized splines. We present our approach from a Bayesian perspective, allowing to treat all functions and effects within a unified general framework by assigning appropriate priors with different forms and degrees of smoothness. Inference is performed on the basis of a multicategorical linear mixed model representation. This can be viewed as posterior mode estimation and is closely related to penalized likelihood estimation in a frequentist setting. Variance components, corresponding to inverse smoothing parameters, are then estimated by using restricted maximum likelihood. Numerically efficient algorithms allow computations even for fairly large data sets. As a typical example we present results on an analysis of data from a forest health survey

Structured count data regression

Overdispersion in count data regression is often caused by neglection or inappropriate modelling of individual heterogeneity, temporal or spatial correlation, and nonlinear covariate effects. In this paper, we develop and study semiparametric count data models which can deal with these issues by incorporating corresponding components in structured additive form into the predictor. The models are fully Bayesian and inference is carried out by computationally efficient MCMC techniques. In a simulation study, we investigate how well the different components can be identified with the data at hand. The approach is applied to a large data set of claim frequencies from car insurance

A mixed model approach for structured hazard regression

The classical Cox proportional hazards model is a benchmark approach to analyze continuous survival times in the presence of covariate information. In a number of applications, there is a need to relax one or more of its inherent assumptions, such as linearity of the predictor or the proportional hazards property. Also, one is often interested in jointly estimating the baseline hazard together with covariate effects or one may wish to add a spatial component for spatially correlated survival data. We propose an extended Cox model, where the (log-)baseline hazard is weakly parameterized using penalized splines and the usual linear predictor is replaced by a structured additive predictor incorporating nonlinear effects of continuous covariates and further time scales, spatial effects, frailty components, and more complex interactions. Inclusion of time-varying coefficients leads to models that relax the proportional hazards assumption. Nonlinear and time-varying effects are modelled through penalized splines, and spatial components are treated as correlated random effects following either a Markov random field or a stationary Gaussian random field. All model components, including smoothing parameters, are specified within a unified framework and are estimated simultaneously based on mixed model methodology. The estimation procedure for such general mixed hazard regression models is derived using penalized likelihood for regression coefficients and (approximate) marginal likelihood for smoothing parameters. Performance of the proposed method is studied through simulation and an application to leukemia survival data in Northwest England