Horizon-Independent Optimal Prediction with Log-Loss in Exponential Families

We study online learning under logarithmic loss with regular parametric models. Hedayati and Bartlett (2012b) showed that a Bayesian prediction strategy with Jeffreys prior and sequential normalized maximum likelihood (SNML) coincide and are optimal if and only if the latter is exchangeable, and if and only if the optimal strategy can be calculated without knowing the time horizon in advance. They put forward the question what families have exchangeable SNML strategies. This paper fully answers this open problem for one-dimensional exponential families. The exchangeability can happen only for three classes of natural exponential family distributions, namely the Gaussian, Gamma, and the Tweedie exponential family of order 3/2. Keywords: SNML Exchangeability, Exponential Family, Online Learning, Logarithmic Loss, Bayesian Strategy, Jeffreys Prior, Fisher Information1Comment: 23 page

Uses and Abuses of Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs): Potential Iatrogenic Impact of PROMs Implementation and How It Can Be Mitigated

Abstract Having been a national advocate for the use of patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) in the UK for the last decade, I have become increasingly concerned that unless the potential iatrogenic impact of widespread policy requirement for use of PROMs (Department of Health, Children and Young People's Health Outcomes Strategy, 2012) is recognised and addressed their real potential benefits (Sapyta et al., J Clin Psychol 61(2):145-153, 2005) may never be realized. Drawing on examples from PROMs implementation in CAMHS in the UK (Wolpert et al., J Ment Health 21(2):165-173, 2012a; Child Adolesc Mental Health 17(3):129-130, 2012b). I suggest key ways forward if PROMs are to support best clinical practice rather than undermine it

Battle of the Blockbusters: Joss Whedon as Public Pedagogue

This article discusses the concept of public pedagogy and the reasons for considering it relevant to the work of the writer/ director/ producer Joss Whedon, creator of numberous TV programmes, such as Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Angel and Firefly, and Films Serenity, Marvel's The Avengers and The Age of Ultron. It analyzes Marvel’s The Avengers (Whedon, 2012) and Christopher Nolan’s (2012b) The Dark Knight Rises as competing public pedagogies.It suggests that popular films can be seen as important educational projects; filmmakers have tremendous resources at their disposal and their creations have a global reach that cannot be matched by individual teachers or national education systems. Whedon can be seen as a radical educator; he enables his audiences to experience ways of looking at the world that challenge aspects of neo-liberal hegemony, and also encourages them to become critical thinkers who have to reflect on their own feelings and perspectives and resist simplistic perspectives on morality and the difficult political choices facing global society

Carvedilol inhibits the cardiostimulant and thermogenic effects of MDMA in humans : lost in translation

We greatly appreciate the comments offered by Drs Rolle, Takematsu, and Hoffman and the opportunity to put our work into a wider perspective. We share the view that our work does not reflect the clinical situation but rather provides a proof of mechanism study, which aims to help to translate preclinical findings (Sprague et al., 2005) into the clinic. As we noted in the discussion of our work (Hysek et al., 2012b) the primary goal of the study was to investigate the role of adrenoceptors in the mechanism of action of MDMA in humans. Therefore, the study provided only indirect support for the use of carvedilol in the treatment of stimulant toxicity in which carvedilol would be administered following the ingestion of Ecstasy or other stimulants. Furthermore, we noted the limitation that the MDMA-induced increase in body temperature in our study was moderate and we do not know whether carvedilol would also be effective in cases of severe hyperthermia following ecstasy use

Childhood, children and family lives in China

In this chapter we bring into focus those aspects of family lives in China that are concerned with children’s family relationships, and the ways in which such issues are part and parcel of the broader institutionalisation of childhood. We draw on theoretical frameworks in the sociology of childhood and childhood studies (e.g., Prout, 2004; Qvortrup, 2000; Smith and Greene, 2014). Since these theoretical perspectives have developed predominantly in Anglophone literature, some researchers have considered their relevance to, and utility for, China and Chinese childhoods (Goh, 2011; Miao, 2013; Wang YY, 2011, 2014a, 2014b; Zheng, 2012a, 2012b; Ribbens McCarthy et al., 2017). In engaging with existing theories, and applying them to, Chinese children’s family lives, we seek to go beyond any tendency to just ‘add in the missing children’ to existing discussions (Kesby et al., 2006: 186), and give consideration to a variety of cultural and local contexts that characterise China and illuminate why it is necessary to decentre universalist thinking (Jullien, 2008/2014