Kirkens have: Radioforedrag 6/8 1950

Intet resumé

Notes on the statistical analysis of some loomweights from Pompeii

Recent work, in the field, on the dimensions and weights of loomweights from excavations in Insula VI.I, Pompeii suggested – to our surprise – that there was structure in the form of evidence of bi-modality in the weights. The paper has two purposes. One is to illustrate a variety of statistical methods that were used to confirm the validity of our observations. The other is to discuss what the archaeological implications of this might be. A more general point is that if more attention is given to what are often regarded as “uninteresting” artefacts some interesting results may emerge - specifically, it can be asked whether loomweights have chronological significance for interpreting archaeological sites (at Pompeii at least)

Study of ephemeris accuracy of the minor planets

The current state of minor planet ephemerides was assessed, and the means for providing and updating these emphemerides for use by both the mission planner and the astronomer were developed. A system of obtaining data for all the numbered minor planets was planned, and computer programs for its initial mechanization were developed. The computer based system furnishes the osculating elements for all of the numbered minor planets at an adopted date of October 10, 1972, and at every 400 day interval over the years of interest. It also furnishes the perturbations in the rectangular coordinates relative to the osculating elements at every 4 day interval. Another computer program was designed and developed to integrate the perturbed motion of a group of 50 minor planets simultaneously. Sampled data resulting from the operation of the computer based systems are presented

Stock assessment of the Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, fishery

A stock assessment of the Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, fishery was conducted with purse-seine landings data from 1940 to 1984 and port sampling data from 1955 to 1984. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, maximum sustainable yield (MSY), spawner-recruit relationships, and yield per recruit. Virtual population analysis was used to estimate stock size, year class size, and fishing mortality rates. Surplus production models produced estimates of MSY from 450 to 490 kmt compared with yields of 416to 436 kmt based roughly on maximum recruitment from a weak spawner-recruit relationship. Recruitment to age-I ranged from 1.2 to 14.8 billion fish for year classes 1955-81. Recent mean recruitment to age-I for the 1975-81 year classes averaged 5.7 billion fish and compared favorably with the mean of 7.7 billion age-I fish recruited during the late 1950's. Mean recruitment from recent years suggests possible coastwide yields of 416 to 481 kmt. Continued dominance of late age-2 spawners among the spawning stock is of concern, since the stock is at greater risk through poor recruitment if recent favorable environmental conditions change. Yield-per-recruit estimates ranged from 46 g to 59 g since 1970. The high dependency of the modern fishery on prespawners has increased concerns about fluctuations in year-to-year availability and catches. To increase yield and enhance the stability of the resource, the number of age classes contributing significantly to the fishery should be increased, creating a butTer against future poor recruitment years and lessening the year-to-year fluctuations in landings. (PDF file contains 24 pages.

The Changing Transitions to Adulthood in a Comparative Perspective: the Case of Pakistan

The paper compares and contrasts the situation of young people in Pakistan with broader global trends drawing on data from both the recent US National Research Council report, Growing up Global: the Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries, and from the national survey of adolescents and youth in Pakistan AYP) 18 months earlier [Sathar, et al. (2003)]. The paper begins with some demographic background, and a discussion of how recent trends in schooling in Pakistan compare with broader trends in all developing countries as a group as well as in South Asia. It then follows the broad outlines of the National Research Council’s report in exploring transitions to adult work and family roles in a comparative perspective. The concluding section of the paper draws on the NRC panel’s programme and policy recommendations which were developed after a careful review of lessons learned from recent policy research and programme intervention research from around the world, all of which are relevant in some form in the Pakistani context.Adulthood, Youth, Pakistan

Asset rundown after retirement: the importance of rate of return shocks

The authors provide evidence that households run down their assets after retirement by tracking a group of elderly households over the 1996–2004 period. They find that assets decline for these households approaching the end of the life cycle. Had there not been a run-up in asset prices due in large part to a historically remarkable rise in housing prices, assets would have declined even faster.Retirement ; Investments ; Business cycles

Growing Up in a Recession: Beliefs and the Macroeconomy

Do generations growing up during recessions have different socio-economic beliefs than generations growing up in good times? We study the relationship between recessions and beliefs by matching macroeconomic shocks during early adulthood with self-reported answers from the General Social Survey. Using time and regional variations in macroeconomic conditions to identify the effect of recessions on beliefs, we show that individuals growing up during recessions tend to believe that success in life depends more on luck than on effort, support more government redistribution, but are less confident in public institutions. Moreover, we find that recessions have a long-lasting effect on individuals' beliefs.beliefs formation, macroeconomic shocks

Does Gender Matter for Political Leadership? The Case of U.S. Mayors

What are the consequences of electing a female leader for policy and political outcomes? We answer this question in the context of U.S. cities, where women’s participation in mayoral elections increased from negligible numbers in 1970 to about one-third of the elections in the 2000’s. We use a novel data set of U.S. mayoral elections from 1950 to 2005, and apply a regression discontinuity design to deal with the endogeneity of female candidacy to city characteristics. In contrast to most research on the influence of female leadership, we find no effect of gender of the mayor on policy outcomes related to the size of local government, the composition of municipal spending and employment, or crime rates. While female mayors do not implement different policies, they do appear to have higher unobserved political skills, as they have a 6-7 percentage point higher incumbent effect than a comparable male. But we find no evidence of political spillovers: exogenously electing a female mayor does not change the long run political success of other female mayoral candidates in the same city or of female candidates in local congressional elections.

Okun's law revisited. Is there structural unemployment in developed countries?

Okun's law for the biggest developed countries is re-estimated using the most recent data on real GDP per capita and the rate of unemployment. Our results show that the change in unemployment rate can be predicted with a high accuracy. The link needs the introduction of a structural break which might be caused by the change in monetary policy or/and in measurement units. Statistically, the link between the studied variables is characterized by the coefficient of determination between 0.40 (Australia) and 0.84 (the USA). The residual errors can be associated with measurement errors. The obtained results suggest the absence of structural unemployment in the studied developed countries.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure

Letter from Representative Burdick to Martin Cross Regarding Hearings for US House Resolution 8411, June 8, 1950

This letter, dated June 8, 1950, from United States (US) Representative Usher Burdick to Three Affiliated Tribes member Martin Cross informs Cross that a hearing for US House Resolution 8411 (H. R. 8411) will have to wait until US Representative Toby Morris\u27s return [Burdick misspells Morris\u27s name Tobey in this letter]. Burdick says that he will inform Cross well in advance once the hearing is scheduled so Cross has time to make arrangements to come to the hearing. See also: Letter from Martin Cross to Representative Burdick Regarding Hearings for US House Resolution 8411, June 3, 1950 Letter from Martin Cross to Representative Burdick Regarding Hearings for US House Resolution 8411, June 13 1950https://commons.und.edu/burdick-papers/1098/thumbnail.jp