The Underlying Causes of Strategic Surprise in EU Foreign Policy:A post-mortem investigation of the Arab Uprisings and the Ukraine-Russia crisis of 2013/14

The study of why and when governments are caught out by strategic surprise has been a major occupation of intelligence studies, international relations, public administration and crisis management studies. Still little is known, however, about the structural vulnerabilities to such surprises in international organisations such as the European Union (EU). EU institutions themselves have not undertaken rigorous investigations or public inquiries of recent strategic surprises, instead relying on internal review processes. In order to understand the most common underlying problems causing surprise in the EU context, this paper adapts and tests insights from the strategic surprise literature. It elaborates a theoretical framework with five hypotheses about why the leadership of EU institutions has been prone to being caught by surprises in foreign affairs: limitations in collection capacity, institutional fragmentation of policymaking, organisational culture, member state politicisation, and cognitive biases arising from collective ideas and norms. These hypotheses are tested using a post-mortem approach investigating two significant strategic surprises: the start and spread of the Arab uprisings of 2010/11 and Ukraine–Russia crisis of 2013/14.Security and Global Affair

How significant are the security and political risks and threats to China's grand westward strategy in central Asia?

published_or_final_versionInternational and Public AffairsMasterMaster of International and Public Affair

Self-Blinded Oracles in DC’s Future Market for Security

This paper studies the making future claims of security by a large selection of experts in D.C.’s think tanks. Although the future is a shared concern on D.C.’s marketplace of ideas and in think tanks, as knowledge producers, experts appear as ‘self-blinded’ and produce ‘self-blinding prophecies’. This paper studies the language of future claims and the role of think tanks in the production of anticipatory knowledge. It discusses how claims about the future are prioritised and highlights the focal points around which experts converge. It analyses the reasons for such homogeneous thinking lying in the experts’ social profiles, in the structure of D.C.’s marketplace and in its norms. The ‘future’ has two major latent functions. On the one hand, past-oriented thinking helps create surprises when political events break away from the limited sets of issues studied by experts. On the other, the ‘future’ has integrative functions: it serves as a communication tool for experts that gather around shared horizons of expectation and create a collective web of meaning

ΣΤΑΣΕΙΣ ΚΑΙ ΑΠΟΨΕΙΣ ΤΩΝ ΕΘΕΛΟΝΤΩΝ ΤΟΥ ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟΥ ΕΡΥΘΡΟΥ ΣΤΑΥΡΟΥ ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΜΕ ΤΟΝ ΚΙΝΔΥΝΟ ΦΥΣΙΚΩΝ ΚΑΤΑΣΤΡΟΦΩΝ

Οι επιπτώσεις των καταστροφών και των κρίσεων μεγάλης κλίμακας εξακολουθούν να αυξάνονται σε όλο τον κόσμο. Για να μετριαστούν οι πιθανές καταστροφές που αντιμετωπίζει η ανθρωπότητα, απαιτείται μια τεκμηριωμένη προσέγγιση για τη διαχείριση καταστροφών. Κατά μέσο όρο, κάθε ευρώ που δαπανάται για δραστηριότητες μείωσης και ετοιμότητας εξοικονομεί μεταξύ τεσσάρων και επτά ευρώ που θα δαπανηθούν για την αντιμετώπιση των καταστροφών. Σκοπός: σκοπός της μελέτης είναι η διερεύνηση των στάσεων και των απόψεων των εθελοντών του ελληνικού ερυθρού σταυρού σχετικά με τον κίνδυνο φυσικών καταστροφών. Μεθοδολογία: Για την υλοποίηση της μελέτης χρησιμοποιήθηκε δομημένο ερωτηματολόγιο το οποίο δόθηκε το οποίο αναρτήθηκε σε κλειστές ομάδες ατόμων του ερυθρού σταυρού. Το ερωτηματολόγιο δημιουργήθηκε σε φόρμα του google με σκοπό να αναρτηθεί και να πραγματοποιηθεί η συλλογή των απαντήσεων. Συμπεράσματα: Η πλειοψηφία του δείγματος εθελοντών συμφώνησε με το ότι η Ελλάδα αντιμετωπίζει μεγάλο κίνδυνο φυσικών καταστροφών. Η πλειοψηφία του δείγματος διαφώνησε με το ότι δεδομένης της αυξημένης συχνότητας μεγάλων φυσικών καταστροφών, ο εξοπλισμός Ελληνικού Ερυθρού Σταυρού είναι επαρκής. Όλο το δείγμα συμφώνησε με το ότι κρίνουν επιβεβλημένη μια συστηματοποιημένη παροχή ψυχολογικής υποστήριξης από επιστημονικό προσωπικό προς τους εθελοντές του Ε.Ε.Σ.Introduction: The effects of large-scale disasters and crises continue to increase worldwide. A documented approach to disaster management is needed to mitigate the potential disasters facing mankind. On average, every euro spent on mitigation and preparedness saves between four and seven euros to be spent on disaster relief. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the attitudes and opinions of the volunteers of the Greek Red Cross regarding the risk of natural disasters. Methodology: A structured questionnaire was used to carry out the study, which was posted on closed groups of Red Cross individuals. The questionnaire was created on google form in order to post and collect the answers. Conclusions: The majority of the sample of volunteers agreed that Greece faces a high risk of natural disasters. The majority of the sample disagreed that given the increased incidence of major natural disasters, Hellenic Red Cross equipment is sufficient. The entire sample agreed that they consider a systematic provision of psychological support by scientific staff to EES volunteers as mandatory

Advancing the epistemology of intelligence analysis: A Polanyian perspective

Michael Polanyi\u27s insights into the nature of tacit knowledge and his experience as a scientist offers ways for understanding a series of key epistemological issues facing the discipline of intelligence analysis, from how analysts recognise the tacit and personal aspects of their knowledge, to better perceiving how discoveries are made

Child pornography offenders and practical research: an evidenced-based approach to prioritising the investigation

To develop a common tactical approach in the protection of children, law-enforcement agencies are required to strengthen networks and relationships across Europe and the world. What constitutes as a child pornography offence within Europe varies considerably, although there is a common understanding that a combined approach is needed to deal with it. From a European perspective the further question is whether cultural specificity exists? The authors highlight the potential significance of culture and adequate understanding of the diversity of these cultures in regard to this type of crime. Recent studies have begun to explore the specific relationship between possession of the actual child pornography and the likelihood of being a contact offender. These studies were based on a corpus of knowledge which has effectively examined three questions: what are the key features of ‘Indecent Images of Children’ (IIOC) offending? How do offenders use IIOC within their offending? How prevalent are contact sexual abusers within indecent image offender samples? This paper will therefore present an overview of the three questions and then describe the current issues within contemporary studies around the ability to prioritise child pornography offenders