The nature of risk in complex projects

© 2017 Project Management Institute, Inc. Risk analysis is important for complex projects; however, systemicity makes evaluating risk in real projects difficult. Looking at the causal structure of risks is a start, but causal chains need to include management actions, the motivations of project actors, and sociopolitical project complexities as well as intra-connectedness and feedback. Common practice based upon decomposition-type methods is often shown to point to the wrong risks. A complexity structure is used to identify systemicity and draws lessons about key risks. We describe how to analyze the systemic nature of risk and how the contractor and client can understand the ramifications of their actions

The nature of risk in complex projects

© 2017 Project Management Institute, Inc. Risk analysis is important for complex projects; however, systemicity makes evaluating risk in real projects difficult. Looking at the causal structure of risks is a start, but causal chains need to include management actions, the motivations of project actors, and sociopolitical project complexities as well as intra-connectedness and feedback. Common practice based upon decomposition-type methods is often shown to point to the wrong risks. A complexity structure is used to identify systemicity and draws lessons about key risks. We describe how to analyze the systemic nature of risk and how the contractor and client can understand the ramifications of their actions

Issues in front-end decision-making on projects

The importance of the front-end decision-making phase in projects is being increasingly recognized - the need to do the right project is on a par with doing the project right. This area is underrepresented in the literature, but there are a number of key themes that run throughout, identifying key issues or difficulties during this stage. This article looks at some of these themes and includes: the need for alignment between organizational strategy and the project concept; dealing with complexity, in particular the systemicity and interrelatedness within project decisions; consideration of the ambiguity implicit in all major projects; taking into account psychological and political biases within estimation of benefits and costs; consideration of the social geography and politics within decision-making groups; and preparation for the turbulence within the project environment, including the maintenance of strategic alignment

Identifying Success Factors in Construction Projects: A Case Study

© 2015 by the Project Management Institute. Published online in Wiley Online Library. Defining "project success" has been of interest for many years, and recent developments combine multiple measurable and psychosocial factors that add to this definition. There has also been research into success factors, but little research into the causal chains through which success emerges. Following the multi-dimensionality of "success," this article shows how success factors combine in complex interactions; it describes factors contributing to project performance by a company working on two major construction programs and shows how to map and analyze paths from root causes to success criteria. The study also identifies some specific factors - some generic, some context-dependent - none of these is uncommon but here they come together synergistically

Effectiveness of learning and experimentation approaches for farmers as a community based strategy for banana xanthomonas wilt management

Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) is a devastating disease for banana and enset in east, central and Horn of Africa since 1968. The disease has spread to all banana growing countries in the region in the last decade, causing yield losses of up to 80 to 100%. Several efforts have been undertaken to develop and implement technologies for BXW management and their effective deployment with varying successes. This paper presents a new participatory approach for managing BXW named Learning and Experimentation Approaches For Farmers (LEAFF) and describes how it was implemented, tested and evaluated among 220 farmers across two agroecological regions, central and South-western Uganda. Results showed that there was a general reduction in the number of infected plants, corresponding to 7% increase in productivity of banana among the LEAFF compared to the non LEAFF participating farmers. The findings suggested that scaling out LEAFF to different parts in the region can significantly contribute to effective and sustainable adoption of BXW management technologies, and in turn, can lead to improved productivity and smallholder farmers’ livelihoods

Propositional Analysis, Policy Creation, and Complex Environments in the United States\u27 2009 Afghanistan-Pakistan Policy

Military conflicts have become nonlinear and the interrelated political and socio-economic changes within these conflicts have created new challenges for American policymakers. A tool called Wallis\u27 Propositional Analysis (PA) suggests a new paradigm that includes thinking about complexity and robustness/systemicity in a policy. The purpose of this single case study was to determine how the PA paradigm adds heuristic value to complex policy decision-making. A backdrop of Wallerstein\u27s complexity theory and complex adaptive systems (CAS) guided this study. This study examined policy statements from the Obama administration on the Afghanistan and Pakistan conflicts in late December 2009. Data were coded and analyzed using Wallis\u27 specific methodological approach that includes a systematic analysis of the policy\u27s propositions and complexity and robustness/systemicity. Key findings indicated that the PA paradigm offers a heuristic method for how to think about the interrelated propositions within a policy that reflect the expected changes the policy intends to make. Specifically, this study demonstrated that an interwoven PA structural approach to policymaking affords the policymaker a method to consider the complex and nonlinear changes in the policy environment. By applying the PA paradigm, policymakers can positively impact social change by exploring policy options that consider a range of possible outcomes from the policy proposal, prior to policy implementation

Innovative approaches to water security:ICTs as platforms for systemic online negotiation

This paper presents the initial outcomes of the research project ‘Innovative approaches to water security using ICTs for systemic online negotiations’ carried out between the department of Systems at the OU, UNESCO PC-CP program and UNESCO-IHE Institute of water education. It explores how water conflicts could be managed - by being prevented through integrated water management and - through better communication amongst water stakeholders and more systemic analysis of water problems at stake

Managing Projects in an Uncertain and Volatile World: Engaging Stakeholders, and Building a Systemic View of Risk

As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of over-runs managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with effectively working with a multitude of parties, dealing with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties and frequently undertaking these activities within a compressed timeframe. This paper describes a risk management process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process explicitly engages a range of stakeholders using a group support system and causal mapping process and provides not only a comprehensive appreciation of the risks identified but also a greater understanding of their subtleties. Using a real case the paper will describe the process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research

Vectorisation of agrochemicals via amino acid carriers: influence of the spacer arm structure on the phloem mobility of phenylpyrrole conjugates in the Ricinus system: Vectorization of agrochemicals via amino acid carriers in the Ricinus system

International audienceBACKGROUND: Excessive agrochemical use causes significant threats to environmental safety and human health. Reducing pesticide use without reducing yield is necessary for sustainable agriculture. Therefore we developed a vectorization strategy to enhance agrochemical delivery through plant amino acid carriers.RESULTS: In addition to a fenpiclonil conjugate recently described, three new amino acid conjugates were synthesized by coupling fenpiclonil to an L-α-amino acid. Phloem mobility of these conjugates which exhibit different structures of the spacer arm introduced between fenpiclonil and the α-amino acid function, was studied using the Ricinus model. Conjugate L-14 which contains a triazole ring with the shortest amino acid chain showed the best phloem systemicity among the four conjugates. By contrast, removing the triazole ring in the spacer arm did not improve systemicity. L-14 exhibited phloem systemicity at all reported pH values (pHs from 5.0 to 6.5) of the foliar apoplast, while acidic derivatives of fenpiclonil were translocated only at pH values near 5.0.CONCLUSION: The conjugates were recognized by a pH-dependent transporter system and translocated at distance in the phloem. They exhibited a broader ability to phloem systemicity than fenpiclonil acidic derivatives within the pH value range of the foliar apoplast

Systemicity of banana bunchy top viral infection in the Kisangani region of the Democratic Republic of Congo

In order to evaluate the systemicity of BBTV from one plant of the mat to the physically attached shoots, 60 mats both of “Yangambi Km5”, Musa AAA and those of the false horn plantain “Libanga Likale”, Musa AAB showing severity levels from 0 to 5 were selected in backyards in Kisangani. In addition, 30 sucker corms per genotype were put under macro-propagation and leaf samples of lateral shoots that had emerged were tested using triple antibody sandwich-enzyme linked immuno sorbent assay (TAS-ELISA). In the backyards, for mats with no visible banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) symptoms, none of the analyzed mats with a total of 29 plants of “Yangambi Km5” and of 35 plants of “Libanga Likale” tested ELISA positive, indicating the absence of the BBTV infection. However, for the severity levels of one to five, 32 to 63.5% of plants in the mats were ELISA positive for “Yangambi Km5”, while 34.9 to 73.2% of plants from “Libanga Likale” tested positive for BBTV. After macro-propagation, 100% of lateral shoots of both cultivars at BBTD severity levels 4 and 5 tested positive. On the other hand, none of the lateral shoots at level 0 tested ELISA positive. However, for levels 1 to 3 some ELISA negative plantlets (40 to 23% for “Yangambi Km5” and 53 to 15% for “Libanga Likale”) were observed. This study indicates the need for the complete destruction of all mats harbouring plants with BBTD severity levels of 3, 4 and 5. Macro-propagation of suckers with severity level 1 symptoms could produce virus-free plantlets but ELISA testing of the lateral shoots is essential to pinpoint the virus-free plantlets