Could a CAMELS downgrade model improve off-site surveillance?

The Federal Reserve’s off-site surveillance system includes two econometric models that are collectively known as the System for Estimating Examination Ratings (SEER). One model, the SEER risk rank model, uses the latest financial statements to estimate the probability that each Fed-supervised bank will fail in the next two years. The other component, the SEER rating model, uses the latest financial statements to produce a “shadow” CAMELS rating for each supervised bank. Banks identified as risky by either model receive closer supervisory scrutiny than other state-member banks.> Because many of the banks flagged by the SEER models have already tumbled into poor condition and, hence, would already be receiving considerable supervisory attention, we developed an alternative model to identify safe-and-sound banks that potentially are headed for financial distress. Such a model could help supervisors allocate scarce on- and off-site resources by pointing out banks not currently under scrutiny that need watching.> It is possible, however, that our alternative model improves little over the current SEER framework. All three models—the SEER risk rank model, the SEER rating model, and our downgrade model—produce ordinal rankings based on overall risk. If the financial factors that explain CAMELS downgrades differ little from the financial factors that explain failures or CAMELS ratings, then all three models will produce similar risk ratings and, hence, similar watch lists of one- and two-rated banks.> We find only slight differences in the ability of the three models to spot emerging financial distress among safe-and-sound banks. In out-of-sample tests for 1992 through 1998, the watch lists produced by the downgrade model outperform the watch lists produced by the SEER models by only a small margin. We conclude that, in relatively tranquil banking environments like the 1990s, a downgrade model adds little value in off-site surveillance. We caution, however, that a downgrade model might prove useful in more turbulent banking times.Bank supervision

Age and growth of three species of seerfishes Scomberomorus commerson, S. guttatus and S. lineolatus

Length-frequency an:(lysis indicates that the king seer (Scomberomorus cotnmerson) attains a size of 402 mim, 726 mm, 995 mm and 1186 mm total length at 1, 2, 3, and 4 years of age, respectively, the streaked seer (S. Uneolatus) reaches a size of 350 mm, 713 mm, 835 mm and 965 mm total length et 1, 2, 3 and 4 years, respectively, and the spotted seer (S. guttatus a size of 369 mm, 532 mm: and 640 mm at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Back-calculated lengths of fish at the time of ring formation on otoliths figree closely with the results of lengthfrequency analysis. The maximum lengths of king seer, streaked seer and spotted seer met with in the catches are 1936 mm (33 kg), 980' mm (4.6 kg) and 705 mm (2.1 kg), respectively. The theoretical maximum lengths (Lac) computed by Bagenal or Rafail method for the von Bertsfeaffy growth equation are found to be 2081 mm (46.7 kg) for the king seer, 1683 mm (15.7 kg) for the male streaked seer, 1447 ram (24.3 kg) for the female streaked seer and 1278 mm (9.6 kg) for the spotted seer. All the three species develop two rings a year in their otoliths at a regular interval of six months. For all the three species, the exponent in the length-weight relationship is found to be close to 3

Towards developing support tools for sustainable control of gastrointestinal nematodes in sheep : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Veterinary Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, Manawatū, New Zealand

Gastrointestinal nematode (GIN) parasitism is a major animal health challenge for sheep. Parasitized animals typically display a number of clinical signs, including a reduction in voluntary feed intake, altered grazing behaviour and lethargy. The aim of this thesis was to use remote sensing technologies to advance the development of a methodology where early changes in animal behaviour can be used to help identify sheep suffering ill effects of GIN parasitism, especially in a pre-clinical situation. It was hypothesised that lambs with even modest worm burdens will be less active, graze for less time and spend more time resting than those herd mates that were less heavily parasitized. The movement and behavioural activity of young and mature, infected and uninfected sheep were monitored in a series of studies using global positioning system (GPS) and tri-axial accelerometer sensors. Key behaviours were identified using machine learning techniques. Also assessed was the influence of host genotype on movement activity. Accelerometry data accurately identified grazing, resting and walking activities of sheep. The sensors were able to identify the effects of GIN parasitism on movement and behaviour in sheep. Clear evidence was found that GIN were associated with reduced movement and overall activity in growing lambs, with reductions in time spent ‘grazing’ and ‘walking’ occurring concomitantly with increases in ‘resting’ activity, and before effects were recorded on growth rates. Host genotype also had an effect on movement activity of lambs in untreated sheep, but not in treated individuals. Adult sheep, however, showed no consistent changes in movement and behaviour associated with parasitism, as measured by faecal egg counts. Overall, the findings in this thesis have demonstrated the potential value in remote monitoring of sheep as a diagnostic marker to detect the generally subtle behavioural changes associated with changing GIN infection status. Such monitoring could therefore be used as the basis for deciding whether animals need to be treated with anthelmintic on the basis of individual need, and such decisions could be taken early, i.e. before animals have failed to grow adequately or started to manifest more overt signs of clinical illness such as weight loss

A zinc finger protein array for the visual detection of specific DNA sequences for diagnostic applications.

The visual detection of specific double-stranded DNA sequences possesses great potential for the development of diagnostics. Zinc finger domains provide a powerful scaffold for creating custom DNA-binding proteins that recognize specific DNA sequences. We previously demonstrated sequence-enabled reassembly of TEM-1 β-lactamase (SEER-LAC), a system consisting of two inactive fragments of β-lactamase each linked to engineered zinc finger proteins (ZFPs). Here the SEER-LAC system was applied to develop ZFP arrays that function as simple devices to identify bacterial double-stranded DNA sequences. The ZFP arrays provided a quantitative assay with a detection limit of 50 fmol of target DNA. The method could distinguish target DNA from non-target DNA within 5 min. The ZFP arrays provided sufficient sensitivity and high specificity to recognize specific DNA sequences. These results suggest that ZFP arrays have the potential to be developed into a simple and rapid point-of-care (POC) diagnostic for the multiplexed detection of pathogens

Comparison of SEER Treatment Data With Medicare Claims

The population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries collect information on first-course treatment, including surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and hormone therapy. However, the SEER program does not release data on chemotherapy or hormone therapy due to uncertainties regarding data completeness. Activities are ongoing to investigate the opportunity to supplement SEER treatment data with other data sources

Comparison of quadrant-specific breast cancer incidence trends in the United States and England between 1975 and 2013

Background UK breast cancer incidence rates suggest that upper outer quadrant (UOQ) cancers have risen disproportionately compared with other areas over time. We aimed to provide a comparison of the trend in quadrant-specific breast cancer incidence between the United States (US) and England, and determine whether a disproportionate UOQ increase is present. Methods Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registry data were obtained on 630,007 female breast cancers from 1975 to 2013. English cancer registry data were obtained on 1,121,134 female breast cancers from 1979 to 2013. Temporal incidence changes were analysed using negative binomial regression. Interaction terms determined whether incidence changes were similar between sites. Results English breast cancer incidence in the UOQ rose significantly from 13% to 28% from 1979 to 2013 whereas no significant increase was observed among SEER data. The significant interaction between quadrant and year of diagnosis (p < 0.001) in both SEER and English data indicates that breast cancer incidence in each quadrant changed at a different rate. Incidence in the UOQ rose disproportionately compared to the nipple (SEER IRR = 0.81, p < 0.001; England IRR = 0.78, p < 0.001) and axillary tail (SEER IRR = 0.87, p = 0.018; England IRR = 0.69, p < 0.001) in both SEER and England. In addition, incidence rose disproportionately in the UOQ compared to non-site-specific tumours in England (Overlapping lesions IRR = 0.81, p = 0.002; NOS IRR = 0.78, p < 0.001). The proportion of non-site-specific tumours was substantially higher in England than SEER throughout the study period (62% in England; 39% in SEER). Conclusions Breast cancer incidence in the UOQ increased disproportionately compared to non-site-specific tumours in England but not in SEER, likely due to the decrease in non-site-specific tumours observed in England over time. There may be real differences in incidence between the two countries, possibly due to differences in aetiology, but is much more likely to be an artefact of changing data collection methods and improvements in site coding in either country