46,644 research outputs found
Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: a real-time assessment : [Version August 14, 2013]
This paper employs stochastic simulations of the New Area-Wide Model—a microfounded open-economy model developed at the ECB—to investigate the consequences of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the evolution of risks to price stability in the euro area during the recent financial crisis. Using a formal measure of the balance of risks, which is derived from policy-makers’ preferences about inflation outcomes, we first show that downside risks to price stability were considerably greater than upside risks during the first half of 2009, followed by a gradual rebalancing of these risks until mid-2011 and a renewed deterioration thereafter. We find that the lower bound has induced a noticeable downward bias in the risk balance throughout our evaluation period because of the implied amplification of deflation risks. We then illustrate that, with nominal interest rates close to zero, forward guidance in the form of a time-based conditional commitment to keep interest rates low for longer can be successful in mitigating downside risks to price stability. However, we find that the provision of time-based forward guidance may give rise to upside risks over the medium term if extended too far into the future. By contrast, time-based forward guidance complemented with a threshold condition concerning tolerable future inflation can provide insurance against the materialisation of such upside risks
Iterative Random Forests to detect predictive and stable high-order interactions
Genomics has revolutionized biology, enabling the interrogation of whole
transcriptomes, genome-wide binding sites for proteins, and many other
molecular processes. However, individual genomic assays measure elements that
interact in vivo as components of larger molecular machines. Understanding how
these high-order interactions drive gene expression presents a substantial
statistical challenge. Building on Random Forests (RF), Random Intersection
Trees (RITs), and through extensive, biologically inspired simulations, we
developed the iterative Random Forest algorithm (iRF). iRF trains a
feature-weighted ensemble of decision trees to detect stable, high-order
interactions with same order of computational cost as RF. We demonstrate the
utility of iRF for high-order interaction discovery in two prediction problems:
enhancer activity in the early Drosophila embryo and alternative splicing of
primary transcripts in human derived cell lines. In Drosophila, among the 20
pairwise transcription factor interactions iRF identifies as stable (returned
in more than half of bootstrap replicates), 80% have been previously reported
as physical interactions. Moreover, novel third-order interactions, e.g.
between Zelda (Zld), Giant (Gt), and Twist (Twi), suggest high-order
relationships that are candidates for follow-up experiments. In human-derived
cells, iRF re-discovered a central role of H3K36me3 in chromatin-mediated
splicing regulation, and identified novel 5th and 6th order interactions,
indicative of multi-valent nucleosomes with specific roles in splicing
regulation. By decoupling the order of interactions from the computational cost
of identification, iRF opens new avenues of inquiry into the molecular
mechanisms underlying genome biology
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High-Performance Integrated Window and Façade Solutions for California
The researchers developed a new generation of high-performance façade systems and supporting design and management tools to support industry in meeting California’s greenhouse gas reduction targets, reduce energy consumption, and enable an adaptable response to minimize real-time demands on the electricity grid. The project resulted in five outcomes: (1) The research team developed an R-5, 1-inch thick, triplepane, insulating glass unit with a novel low-conductance aluminum frame. This technology can help significantly reduce residential cooling and heating loads, particularly during the evening. (2) The team developed a prototype of a windowintegrated local ventilation and energy recovery device that provides clean, dry fresh air through the façade with minimal energy requirements. (3) A daylight-redirecting louver system was prototyped to redirect sunlight 15–40 feet from the window. Simulations estimated that lighting energy use could be reduced by 35–54 percent without glare. (4) A control system incorporating physics-based equations and a mathematical solver was prototyped and field tested to demonstrate feasibility. Simulations estimated that total electricity costs could be reduced by 9-28 percent on sunny summer days through adaptive control of operable shading and daylighting components and the thermostat compared to state-of-the-art automatic façade controls in commercial building perimeter zones. (5) Supporting models and tools needed by industry for technology R&D and market transformation activities were validated. Attaining California’s clean energy goals require making a fundamental shift from today’s ad-hoc assemblages of static components to turnkey, intelligent, responsive, integrated building façade systems. These systems offered significant reductions in energy use, peak demand, and operating cost in California
A General Spatio-Temporal Clustering-Based Non-local Formulation for Multiscale Modeling of Compartmentalized Reservoirs
Representing the reservoir as a network of discrete compartments with
neighbor and non-neighbor connections is a fast, yet accurate method for
analyzing oil and gas reservoirs. Automatic and rapid detection of coarse-scale
compartments with distinct static and dynamic properties is an integral part of
such high-level reservoir analysis. In this work, we present a hybrid framework
specific to reservoir analysis for an automatic detection of clusters in space
using spatial and temporal field data, coupled with a physics-based multiscale
modeling approach. In this work a novel hybrid approach is presented in which
we couple a physics-based non-local modeling framework with data-driven
clustering techniques to provide a fast and accurate multiscale modeling of
compartmentalized reservoirs. This research also adds to the literature by
presenting a comprehensive work on spatio-temporal clustering for reservoir
studies applications that well considers the clustering complexities, the
intrinsic sparse and noisy nature of the data, and the interpretability of the
outcome.
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Spatio-Temporal
Clustering; Physics-Based Data-Driven Formulation; Multiscale Modelin
Understanding the spreading power of all nodes in a network: a continuous-time perspective
Centrality measures such as the degree, k-shell, or eigenvalue centrality can
identify a network's most influential nodes, but are rarely usefully accurate
in quantifying the spreading power of the vast majority of nodes which are not
highly influential. The spreading power of all network nodes is better
explained by considering, from a continuous-time epidemiological perspective,
the distribution of the force of infection each node generates. The resulting
metric, the \textit{expected force}, accurately quantifies node spreading power
under all primary epidemiological models across a wide range of archetypical
human contact networks. When node power is low, influence is a function of
neighbor degree. As power increases, a node's own degree becomes more
important. The strength of this relationship is modulated by network structure,
being more pronounced in narrow, dense networks typical of social networking
and weakening in broader, looser association networks such as the Internet. The
expected force can be computed independently for individual nodes, making it
applicable for networks whose adjacency matrix is dynamic, not well specified,
or overwhelmingly large
Imprecise dynamic walking with time-projection control
We present a new walking foot-placement controller based on 3LP, a 3D model
of bipedal walking that is composed of three pendulums to simulate falling,
swing and torso dynamics. Taking advantage of linear equations and closed-form
solutions of the 3LP model, our proposed controller projects intermediate
states of the biped back to the beginning of the phase for which a discrete LQR
controller is designed. After the projection, a proper control policy is
generated by this LQR controller and used at the intermediate time. This
control paradigm reacts to disturbances immediately and includes rules to
account for swing dynamics and leg-retraction. We apply it to a simulated Atlas
robot in position-control, always commanded to perform in-place walking. The
stance hip joint in our robot keeps the torso upright to let the robot
naturally fall, and the swing hip joint tracks the desired footstep location.
Combined with simple Center of Pressure (CoP) damping rules in the low-level
controller, our foot-placement enables the robot to recover from strong pushes
and produce periodic walking gaits when subject to persistent sources of
disturbance, externally or internally. These gaits are imprecise, i.e.,
emergent from asymmetry sources rather than precisely imposing a desired
velocity to the robot. Also in extreme conditions, restricting linearity
assumptions of the 3LP model are often violated, but the system remains robust
in our simulations. An extensive analysis of closed-loop eigenvalues, viable
regions and sensitivity to push timings further demonstrate the strengths of
our simple controller
Refining interaction search through signed iterative Random Forests
Advances in supervised learning have enabled accurate prediction in
biological systems governed by complex interactions among biomolecules.
However, state-of-the-art predictive algorithms are typically black-boxes,
learning statistical interactions that are difficult to translate into testable
hypotheses. The iterative Random Forest algorithm took a step towards bridging
this gap by providing a computationally tractable procedure to identify the
stable, high-order feature interactions that drive the predictive accuracy of
Random Forests (RF). Here we refine the interactions identified by iRF to
explicitly map responses as a function of interacting features. Our method,
signed iRF, describes subsets of rules that frequently occur on RF decision
paths. We refer to these rule subsets as signed interactions. Signed
interactions share not only the same set of interacting features but also
exhibit similar thresholding behavior, and thus describe a consistent
functional relationship between interacting features and responses. We describe
stable and predictive importance metrics to rank signed interactions. For each
SPIM, we define null importance metrics that characterize its expected behavior
under known structure. We evaluate our proposed approach in biologically
inspired simulations and two case studies: predicting enhancer activity and
spatial gene expression patterns. In the case of enhancer activity, s-iRF
recovers one of the few experimentally validated high-order interactions and
suggests novel enhancer elements where this interaction may be active. In the
case of spatial gene expression patterns, s-iRF recovers all 11 reported links
in the gap gene network. By refining the process of interaction recovery, our
approach has the potential to guide mechanistic inquiry into systems whose
scale and complexity is beyond human comprehension
Useful energy transfer in air-to-air heat recovery units in partly heated low energy buildings
In this study, the performance of ventilation systems with heat recovery in residential buildings with a low energy demand for heating was evaluated. In a completely heated building, the percentage of useful recovered heat will be equal to the nominal effectiveness of the heat exchanger. In the case some rooms are not heated, they will still receive preheated air. This part of the recovered heat will not directly increase comfort, so it does not completely contribute to the energy savings of the building. Simulations were done with TRNSYS to assess the percentage of usefully recovered heat. This value was found to be lower than the nominal effectiveness, but varying with several parameters
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