The Relationship Between The Inflation Rate And Inequality Across U.S. States: A Semiparametric Approach

This paper uses a cross-state panel for the United States over the 1976–2007 period to assess the relationship between income inequality and the inflation rate. Employing a semiparametric instrument variable (IV) estimator, we find that the relationship depends on the level of the inflation rate. A positive relationship occurs only if the states exceed a threshold level of inflation rate. Below this value, inflation rate lowers income inequality. The results suggest that a nonlinear relationship exists between income inequality and the inflation rate. © 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Natur

Estimating the underlying inflation rate

Inflation (Finance)

Non-Linearity between Inflation Rate and GDP Growth in Malaysia

This study analyses the relationship between inflation rate and economic growth rate in the period 1970-2005 in Malaysia. A specific question that is addressed in this study is what the threshold inflation rate for Malaysia. The findings suggest that there is one inflation threshold value exist for Malaysia. This evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation rate and economic growth is nonlinear. The estimated threshold regression model suggests 3.89% as the threshold value of inflation rate above which inflation significantly retards growth rate of GDP. In addition, below the threshold level, there is statistical significant positive relationship between inflation rate and growth. Bank Negara (central bank of Malaysia) should pay attention to inflation phenomena and substantial gain can be achieved in low-inflation environment while conducting the new monetary policy.

What is the right inflation rate?

The primary objective of most of the world's central banks these days is to keep inflation low, and the range of inflation rates banks find acceptable appears to be around 2.5 to 3.5 percent. While banks may have hit on this range through trial and error, economic theory and empirical observations suggest a good reason for it.Inflation (Finance) ; Banks and banking, Central

The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland

As a result of the Balassa effect relative prices change rapidly between and within the euro countries. Thus it is impossible to find a common monetary policy that will result in price stability in all countries. Based on empirical estimates of the Balassa model, the paper calculates a minimum aggregate inflation rate which is compatible with the requirement that no country face a deflation. This minimum aggeragate inflation rate is 0.94% in the euro-11 countries and 1.13% in an extended Europe which incorporates the east European countries.Inflation target, Balassa-Samuelson effect, ECB

Structural Breaks in Inflation Dynamics within the European Monetary Union

To assess the effects of the EMU on inflation rate dynamics of its member states, the inflation rate series for 21 European countries are investigated for structural changes. To capture changes in mean, variance, and skewness of inflation rates, a generalized logistic model is adopted and complemented with structural break tests and breakpoint estimation techniques. These reveal considerable differences in the patterns of inflation dynamics and the structural changes therein. Overall, there is a convergence towards a lower mean inflation rate with reduced skewness, but it is accompanied by an increase in variance.inflation rate, structural break, EMU, generalized logistic distribution

Quest for the Best: How to Measure Central Bank Independence and Show its Relationship with Inflation

The objective of this paper is to check measures for explanatory power of central bank independence (CBI) in a series of econometric tests. Measures of central bank autonomy offer a useful expression of the extent to which a central bank is able to keep the government away from influencing a change in the inflation rate. The more a measure represents this idea, the easier one can find a relation between the CBI value and the inflation rate. Results of estimations show that proxies by Grilli et al. (1991) are strong regressors of inflation rate, contrary to those by Cukierman et al. (1992). Moreover, estimation results challenge the belief that divergences in CBI-inflation rate estimations are due to differences in institutional features across samples of countries, not to differences in legal proxies of central bank independence. Already results from a homogenous group of industrial countries indicate that some indices perform “better” than others.Central bank independence, political autonomy, economic autonomy, institution, estimation

The Steady Inflation Rate of Economic Growth

This paper considers the existence of a path of GDP corresponding to steady inflation in the prices of domestic goods. We estimate the steady inflation rate of growth, denoted the SIRG, at a little over 4 per cent per annum in the post-float period. Changes in inflation are modelled as a nonlinear combination of growth and changes in import price inflation. Because import price inflation is more volatile than overall inflation, policy that targets overall inflation may require growth to fluctuate considerably, whereas growth can be steady if the target is steady inflation of domestic goods' prices.inflation, growth , import prices, monetary policy

Monetary Policy and Learning from the Central Bank's Forecast

We examine the expectational stability (E-stability) of the rational expectations equilibrium (REE) in a simple New Keynesian model in which private agents engage in adaptive learning by referring to the central bank's forecast. In this environment, to satisfy the E-stability condition, the central bank must respond more strongly to the expected inflation rate than the so-called Taylor principle suggests. On the other hand, the central bank's strong reaction to the expected inflation rate raises the possibility of indeterminacy of the REE. In considering these problems, a robust policy is to respond to the current inflation rate to a certain degree.Adaptive Learning, E-stability, New Keynesian Model, Monetary Policy, Taylor principle

Inflation targeting: what inflation rate to target?

In an economy with nominal rigidities in both an intermediate good sector and a finished good sector, and thus with a natural distinction between CPI and PPI inflation rates, a benevolent central bank faces a tradeoff between stabilizing the two measures of inflation: a final output gap, and unique to our model, a real marginal cost gap in the intermediate sector, so that optimal monetary policy is second-best. We discuss how to implement the optimal policy with minimal information requirement and evaluate the robustness of these simple rules when the central bank may not know the exact sources of shocks or nominal rigidities. A main finding is that a simple hybrid rule under which the short-term interest rate responds to CPI inflation and PPI inflation results in a welfare level close to the optimum, whereas policy rules that ignore PPI inflation or PPI sector shocks can result in significant welfare losses.Inflation (Finance)