Constraining uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing

The uncertainty in present-day anthropogenic forcing is dominated by uncertainty in the strength of the contribution from aerosol. Much of the uncertainty in the direct aerosol forcing can be attributed to uncertainty in the anthropogenic fraction of aerosol in the present-day atmosphere, due to a lack of historical observations. Here we present a robust relationship between total present-day aerosol optical depth and the anthropogenic contribution across three multi-model ensembles and a large single-model perturbed parameter ensemble. Using observations of aerosol optical depth, we determine a reduced likely range of the anthropogenic component and hence a reduced uncertainty in the direct forcing of aerosol

An efficient implicit direct forcing immersed boundary method for incompressible flows

International audienceA novel efficient implicit direct forcing immersed boundary method for incompressible flows with complex boundaries is presented. In the previous work [1], the calculation is performed on the Cartesian grid regardless of the immersed object, with a fictitious force evaluated on the Lagrangian points to mimic the presence of the physical boundaries. However the explicit direct forcing method [1] fails to accurately impose the non-slip boundary condition on the immersed interface. In the present work, the calculation is based on the implicit treatment of the artificial force while in an effective way of system iteration. The accuracy is also improved by solving the Navier-Stokes equation with the rotational incremental pressure- correction projection method of Guermond and Shen [2]. Numerical simulations performed with the proposed method are in good agreement with those in the literature

Simulation of incompressible viscous flows around moving objects by a variant of immersed boundary-Lattice Boltzmann method

A variant of immersed boundary-lattice Boltzmann method (IB-LBM) is presented in this paper to simulate incompressible viscous flows around moving objects. As compared with the conventional IB-LBM where the force density is computed explicitly by Hook's law or the direct forcing method and the non-slip condition is only approximately satisfied, in the present work, the force density term is considered as the velocity correction which is determined by enforcing the non-slip condition at the boundary. The lift and drag forces on the moving object can be easily calculated via the velocity correction on the boundary points. The capability of the present method for moving objects is well demonstrated through its application to simulate flows around a moving circular cylinder, a rotationally oscillating cylinder, and an elliptic flapping wing. Furthermore, the simulation of flows around a flapping flexible airfoil is carried out to exhibit the ability of the present method for implementing the elastic boundary condition. It was found that under certain conditions, the flapping flexible airfoil can generate larger propulsive force than the flapping rigid airfoil

Cavitation Induction by Projectile Impacting on a Water Jet

The present paper focuses on the simulation of the high-velocity impact of a projectile impacting on a water-jet, causing the onset, development and collapse of cavitation. The simulation of the fluid motion is carried out using an explicit, compressible, density-based solver developed by the authors using the OpenFOAM library. It employs a barotropic two-phase flow model that simulates the phase-change due to cavitation and considers the co-existence of non-condensable and immiscible air. The projectile is considered to be rigid while its motion through the computational domain is modelled through a direct-forcing Immersed Boundary Method. Model validation is performed against the experiments of Field et al. [Field, J., Camus, J. J., Tinguely, M., Obreschkow, D., Farhat, M., 2012. Cavitation in impacted drops and jets and the effect on erosion damage thresholds. Wear 290–291, 154–160. doi:10.1016/j.wear.2012.03.006. URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0043164812000968 ], who visualised cavity formation and shock propagation in liquid impacts at high velocities. Simulations unveil the shock structures and capture the high-speed jetting forming at the impact location, in addition to the subsequent cavitation induction and vapour formation due to refraction waves. Moreover, model predictions provide quantitative information and a better insight on the flow physics that has not been identified from the reported experimental data, such as shock-wave propagation, vapour formation quantity and induced pressures. Furthermore, evidence of the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability developing on the liquid-air interface are predicted when sufficient dense grid resolution is utilised

Solar influences on dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere

We use a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the response of the lower atmosphere to thermal perturbations in the lower stratosphere. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the sub-tropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low latitude heating displacing them poleward, and uniform heating displacing them equatorward. The patterns of response to the low latitude heating are similar to those found to be associated with solar variability in previous observational data analysis, and to the effects of varying solar UV radiation in sophisticated AGCMs. In order to investigate the chain of causality involved in converting the stratospheric thermal forcing to a tropospheric climate signal we conduct an experiment which uses an ensemble of model spin-ups to analyse the time development of the response to an applied stratospheric perturbation. We find that the initial effect of the change in static stability at the tropopause is to reduce the eddy momentum flux convergence in this region. This is followed by a vertical transfer of the momentum forcing anomaly by an anomalous mean circulation to the surface, where it is partly balanced by surface stress anomalies. The unbalanced part drives the evolution of the vertically integrated zonal flow. We conclude that solar heating of the stratosphere may produce changes in the circulation of the troposphere even without any direct forcing below the tropopause. We suggest that the impact of the stratospheric changes on wave propagation is key to the mechanisms involved

Spontaneous generation of inertial waves from boundary turbulence in a librating sphere

In this work, we report the excitation of inertial waves in a librating sphere even for libration frequencies where these waves are not directly forced. This spontaneous generation comes from the localized turbulence induced by the centrifugal instabilities in the Ekman boundary layer near the equator and does not depend on the libration frequency. We characterize the key features of these inertial waves in analogy with previous studies of the generation of internal waves in stratified flows from localized turbulent patterns. In particular, the temporal spectrum exhibits preferred values of excited frequency. This first-order phenomenon is generic to any rotating flow in the presence of localized turbulence and is fully relevant for planetary applications

The response of tropospheric circulation to perturbations in lower-stratospheric temperature

A multiple regression analysis of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset shows a response to increased solar activity of a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical jets. This signal is separable from other influences, such as those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and is very similar to that seen in previous studies using global circulation models (GCMs) of the effects of an increase in solar spectral irradiance. The response to increased stratospheric (volcanic) aerosol is found in the data to be a weakening and equatorward shift of the jets. The GCM studies of the solar influence also showed an impact on tropospheric mean meridional circulation with a weakening and expansion of the tropical Hadley cells and a poleward shift of the Ferrel cells. To understand the mechanisms whereby the changes in solar irradiance affect tropospheric winds and circulation, experiments have been carried out with a simplified global circulation model. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the subtropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low-latitude heating forcing them to move poleward, and high-latitude or latitudinally uniform heating forcing them equatorward. The patterns of response are similar to those that are found to be a result of the solar or volcanic influences, respectively, in the data analysis. This demonstrates that perturbations to the heat balance of the lower stratosphere, such as those brought about by solar or volcanic activity, can produce changes in the mean tropospheric circulation, even without any direct forcing below the tropopause

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols - Part 1: Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W) of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2), nitrate (−0.2 W m−2), organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2), and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.Engineering and Applied Science