Sensitivity of monsoon circulation and precipitation over India to model horizontal resolution and orographic effects

A triple-nested regional weather prediction model was used to investigate the effects of the model horizontal resolution and orography on southwest monsoon precipitation over India. Numerical experiments with different resolution topography and different horizontal resolution model domains were conducted. Simulation results indicate that both the distribution and intensity of simulated southwest monsoon precipitation over India is highly sensitive to model horizontal resolution and topography. The model with a finer resolution is able to predict mesoscale organization of rainfall over the land mass. Rainfall predicted over the coarse domain is much less than that observed owing to its unrealistic representation of orographic effects and mesoscale forcings. Simulated wind speed, surface pressure, and latent and sensible heat flux distributions are also sensitive to the model resolution. Larger values and more detailed structure of the distribution of the wind speed and latent and sensible heat fluxes are simulated in the finer domains

Analysis of an intense bora event in the Adriatic area

International audienceNumerical simulations of a bora event, recently occurred in the Adriatic area, are presented. Two reference runs at different horizontal resolution (about 20km and 8km) describe the case. Initial conditions for the atmospheric model integration are obtained from ECMWF analyses. Satellite data are used for comparisons. A further run at horizontal resolution of 8km, using initial satellite sea surface temperatures, is performed to evaluate their impact on the low level wind over the Adriatic Sea. All the simulations are carried out with 50 layers in the vertical. Numerous aspects of the simulations are found to be in agreement with the understanding as well as the observational knowledge of bora distinctive characteristics. Satellite data and model results indicate that a more realistic simulation of the bora wind over the sea is achieved using the model with 8km horizontal resolution and that the low level wind in this case is sensitive, though weakly, to the difference between the used sea surface temperature fields. Simulation results also show that both wind intensity and the area around wind peaks tend to increase when relatively higher sea surface temperatures are used

A different glance to the site testing above Dome C

Due to the recent interest shown by astronomers towards the Antarctic Plateau as a potential site for large astronomical facilities, we assisted in the last years to a strengthening of site testing activities in this region, particularly at Dome C. Most of the results collected so far concern meteorologic parameters and optical turbulence measurements based on different principles using different instruments. At present we have several elements indicating that, above the first 20-30 meters, the quality of the optical turbulence above Dome C is better than above whatever other site in the world. The challenging question, crucial to know which kind of facilities to build on, is to establish how much better the Dome C is than a mid-latitude site. In this contribution we will provide some complementary elements and strategies of analysis aiming to answer to this question. We will try to concentrate the attention on critical points, i.e. open questions that still require explanation/attention.Comment: 3 figures, EAS Publications Series, Volume 25, 2007, pp.5

May Gravity detect Tsunami ?

The present gravitational wave detectors are reaching lowest metric deviation fields able to detect galactic and extra-galactic gravitational waves, related to Supernova explosions up to Virgo cluster. The same gravitational wave detector are nevertheless almost able to reveal, in principle, near field Newtonian gravitational perturbations due to fast huge mass displacements as the ones occurring during largest Earth-Quake or Tsunami as the last on 26nd December 2004 in Asiatic area. Virgo and Ligo detector are unfortunately recording on high frequencies (above tens Hz) while the signal of the Tsunami lay at much lower range (below 0.1 Hz). Nevertheless prompt gravitational near field deformation by the Tsunami might reach the future LISA threshold sensitivity and frequency windows if such an array is located nearby (3000-10000) km distances. Unfortunately the present LISA system should be located at Lagrange point too far (1.5 million km. far away). We note however that the later continental mass rearrangement and their gravitational field assessment on Earth must induce, for Richter Magnitude 9-like Tsunami, a different terrestrial inertia momentum and a different principal rotation axis. In conclusion we remind that gravitational geodetic deviation on new precise satellites (GOCE 2006), assisted by GPS network, might nevertheless reach in the near future the needed threshold and accuracy to reveal Tsunami by their prompt tidal gravity field deviations . An array of such geoid detector maybe correlated with LISA-like satellite on Earth orbits may offer the fastest alarm system.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, Vulcano Conference 2005, in Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysic

Atmospheric rivers do not explain UK summer extreme rainfall

Extreme rainfall events continue to be one of the largest natural hazards in the UK. In winter, heavy precipitation and floods have been linked with intense moisture transport events associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), yet no large-scale atmospheric precursors have been linked to summer flooding in the UK. This study investigates the link between ARs and extreme rainfall from two perspectives: 1) Given an extreme rainfall event, is there an associated AR? 2) Given an AR, is there an associated extreme rainfall event? We identify extreme rainfall events using the UK Met Office daily rain-gauge dataset and link these to ARs using two different horizontal resolution atmospheric datasets (ERA-Interim and 20th Century Re-analysis). The results show that less than 35% of winter ARs and less than 15% of summer ARs are associated with an extreme rainfall event. Consistent with previous studies, at least 50% of extreme winter rainfall events are associated with an AR. However, less than 20% of the identified summer extreme rainfall events are associated with an AR. The dependence of the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR on the years included in the study, and on the length of the season, is also examined. Including a longer period (1900-2012) compared to previous studies (1979-2005) reduces the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR

Wind speed vertical distribution at Mt. Graham

The characterization of the wind speed vertical distribution V(h) is fundamental for an astronomical site for many different reasons: (1) the wind speed shear contributes to trigger optical turbulence in the whole troposphere, (2) a few of the astroclimatic parameters such as the wavefront coherence time (tau_0) depends directly on V(h), (3) the equivalent velocity V_0, controlling the frequency at which the adaptive optics systems have to run to work properly, depends on the vertical distribution of the wind speed and optical turbulence. Also, a too strong wind speed near the ground can introduce vibrations in the telescope structures. The wind speed at a precise pressure (200 hPa) has frequently been used to retrieve indications concerning the tau_0 and the frequency limits imposed to all instrumentation based on adaptive optics systems, but more recently it has been proved that V_200 (wind speed at 200 hPa) alone is not sufficient to provide exhaustive elements concerning this topic and that the vertical distribution of the wind speed is necessary. In this paper a complete characterization of the vertical distribution of wind speed strength is done above Mt.Graham (Arizona, US), site of the Large Binocular Telescope. We provide a climatological study extended over 10 years using the operational analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we prove that this is representative of the wind speed vertical distribution at Mt. Graham with exception of the boundary layer and we prove that a mesoscale model can provide reliable nightly estimates of V(h) above this astronomical site from the ground up to the top of the atmosphere (~ 20 km).Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures (whereof 3 colour), accepted by MNRAS May 27, 201

Impact of multiple radar reflectivity data assimilation on the numerical simulation of a flash flood event during the HyMeX campaign

An analysis to evaluate the impact of multiple radar reflectivity data with a three-dimensional variational (3-D-Var) assimilation system on a heavy precipitation event is presented. The main goal is to build a regionally tuned numerical prediction model and a decision-support system for environmental civil protection services and demonstrate it in the central Italian regions, distinguishing which type of observations, conventional and not (or a combination of them), is more effective in improving the accuracy of the forecasted rainfall. In that respect, during the first special observation period (SOP1) of HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) campaign several intensive observing periods (IOPs) were launched and nine of which occurred in Italy. Among them, IOP4 is chosen for this study because of its low predictability regarding the exact location and amount of precipitation. This event hit central Italy on 14 September 2012 producing heavy precipitation and causing several cases of damage to buildings, infrastructure, and roads. Reflectivity data taken from three C-band Doppler radars running operationally during the event are assimilated using the 3-D-Var technique to improve high-resolution initial conditions. In order to evaluate the impact of the assimilation procedure at different horizontal resolutions and to assess the impact of assimilating reflectivity data from multiple radars, several experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are performed. Finally, traditional verification scores such as accuracy, equitable threat score, false alarm ratio, and frequency bias - interpreted by analysing their uncertainty through bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) - are used to objectively compare the experiments, using rain gauge data as a benchmark

The horizontal resolution of MIPAS

Limb remote sensing from space provides atmospheric composition measurements at high vertical resolution while the information is smeared in the horizontal domain. The horizontal components of two-dimensional (altitude and along-track coordinate) averaging kernels of a limb retrieval constrained to horizontal homogeneity can be used to estimate the horizontal resolution of limb retrievals. This is useful for comparisons of measured data with modeled data, to construct horizontal observation operators in data assimilation applications or when measurements of different horizontal resolution are intercompared. We present these averaging kernels for retrievals of temperature, H2O, O3, CH4, N2O, HNO3 and NO2 from MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) high-resolution limb emission spectra. The horizontal smearing of a MIPAS retrieval in terms of full width at half maximum of the rows of the horizontal averaging kernel matrix varies typically between about 200 and 350 km for most species, altitudes and atmospheric conditions. The range where 95% of the information originates from varies from about 260 to 440 km for these cases. This information spread is smaller than the MIPAS horizontal sampling, i.e. MIPAS data are horizontally undersampled, and the effective horizontal resolution is driven by the sampling rather than the smearing. The point where the majority of the information originates from is displaced from the tangent point towards the satellite by typically less than 10 km for trace gas profiles and about 50 to 100 km for temperature, with a few exceptions for uppermost altitudes. The geolocation of a MIPAS profile is defined as the tangent point of the middle line of sight in a MIPAS limb scan. The majority of the information displacement with respect to this nominal geolocation of the measurement is caused by the satellite movement and the geometrical displacement of the actual tangent point as a function of the elevation angle