Symmetry-breaking phase transition in a dynamical decision model

We consider a simple decision model in which a set of agents randomly choose one of two competing shops selling the same perishable products (typically food). The satisfaction of agents with respect to a given store is related to the freshness of the previously bought products. Agents select with a higher probability the store they are most satisfied with. Studying the model from a statistical physics perspective, both through numerical simulations and mean-field analytical methods, we find a rich behaviour with continuous and discontinuous phase transitions between a symmetric phase where both stores maintain the same level of activity, and a phase with broken symmetry where one of the two shops attracts more customers than the other.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, submitted to JSTA

A Decision Model for E-commerce-enabled Partial Market Exit

Struggling retail chains often try to recover profitability by closing some of their stores. The challenge in this strategy lies in determining how many stores to close, as store exit has implications for both the customers and the supply chain. After a store closes, its customers are lost forever to the competition, unless there is a surviving open store nearby or an electronic alternative such as an e-store. From the supply chain perspective, after a store closes, its supporting regional distribution center is left with less business, and thus reduced viability. This paper develops a decision support model to study the profitability of alternative retail network structures by varying the proportion of stores that are closed, the average price sensitivity of demand, the price difference between the online store and the traditional retailers, and customer retention rates

A decision model for natural oil buying policy under uncertainty

A manufacturer, in a fast moving consumer goods industry, buys Natural oils from a number of oil suppliers world-wide. The prices of these oils are the major raw material cost in producing the consumer goods, which are also sold world-wide. The volatility in the international prices of the Natural oils has signi¯cant impact on the planning and budgets decisions. Since the oils are bought and the ¯nished products are sold in markets throughout the world, the manufacturer is exposed to a variety of market uncertainties and the resulting risks. These uncertainties are the raw material prices, the demand and the therefore the selling prices for the finished goods- all of which influence the profitability of the manufacturing firm. The risks can be minimised by entering into futures contract of appropriate duration, that is, by following a schedule of "forward"' purchase of oil (with specific series of future delivery dates) with the oil suppliers. We formulate this problem as a two-stage Stochastic Program (SP) using the futures and the spot prices for the Natural oil. This SP model gives robust decisions that hedge against the uncertainties in the Natural oil prices and the demand for the finished products. The uncertainty in the oil prices and the demand are modelled through a scenario generator. We have constructed a decision support system (DSS) that integrates the SP model, the scenario generator and the solution algorithm. This DSS also provides the decision maker a profile of the risk and return exposures for different policies

The costs of shareholder activism : evidence from a sequential decision model

This paper provides benchmarks for monitoring costs and evaluates the net returns to shareholder activism. I model activism as a sequential decision process consisting of demand negotiations, board representation, and proxy contest and estimate the costs of each activism stage. A campaign ending in a proxy fight has average costs of $10.71 million. I find that the estimated monitoring costs reduce activist returns by more than two-thirds. The mean net activist return is close to zero but the top quartile of activists earns higher returns on their activist holdings than on their non-activist investments. The large-sample evidence presented in this paper aids in understanding the nature and evolution of activist engagements

Two-moment decision model for location-scale family with background asset

This paper studies the impact of background risk on the indifference curve. We first study the shape of the indifference curves for the investment with background risk for risk averters, risk seekers, and risk-neutral investors. Thereafter, we study the comparative statics of the change in the shapes of the indifference curves when the means and the standard deviations of the returns of the financial asset and/or the background asset change. In addition, we draw inference on risk vulnerability and investment decisions in financial crises and bull and bear markets