Forecasting the European carbon market

In an effort to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, in 2005 the European Union introduced a cap-and-trade scheme where mandated installations are allocated permits to emit CO2. Financial markets have developed that allow companies to trade these carbon permits. For the EU to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions at a minimum cost, it is necessary that companies make appropriate investments and policymakers design optimal policies. In an effort to clarify the workings of the carbon market, several recent papers have attempted to statistically model it. However, the European carbon market (EU ETS) has many institutional features that potentially impact on daily carbon prices (and associated …nancial futures). As a consequence, the carbon market has properties that are quite di¤erent from conventional financial assets traded in mature markets. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging (DMA) in order to forecast in this newly-developing market. DMA is a recently-developed statistical method which has three advantages over conventional approaches. First, it allows the coefficients on the predictors in a forecasting model to change over time. Second, it allows for the entire forecasting model to change over time. Third, it surmounts statistical problems which arise from the large number of potential predictors that can explain carbon prices. Our empirical results indicate that there are both important policy and statistical benefits with our approach. Statistically, we present strong evidence that there is substantial turbulence and change in the EU ETS market, and that DMA can model these features and forecast accurately compared to conventional approaches. From a policy perspective, we discuss the relative and changing role of different price drivers in the EU ETS. Finally, we document the forecast performance of DMA and discuss how this relates to the efficiency and maturity of this market

Carbon market and climate negotiations.

In the wake of the Copenhagen Conference and the outstanding issue of shaping climate change mitigation for the period beyond that covered by the Kyoto protocol, this paper puts into context the various economic instruments available fot tackling climate change, and highlights the emergence, as a result of the framework of instruments provided by the Kyoto protocol, of carbon markets, (...)Economic instruments; Climate change; CO2; Carbon markets; Post-Kyoto;

Forecasting the European Carbon Market

In an effort to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, in 2005 the European Union introduced a cap-and-trade scheme where mandated installations are allocated permits to emit CO2. Financial markets have developed that allow companies to trade these carbon permits. For the EU to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions at a minimum cost, it is necessary that companies make appropriate investments and policymakers design optimal policies. In an effort to clarify the workings of the carbon market, several recent papers have attempted to statistically model it. However, the European carbon market (EU ETS) has many institutional features that potentially impact on daily carbon prices (and associated ?nancial futures). As a consequence, the carbon market has properties that are quite different from conventional financial assets traded in mature markets. In this paper, we use dynamic modelaveraging (DMA) in order to forecast in this newly-developing market. DMA is a recently-developed statistical method which has three advantages over conventional approaches. First, it allows the coe¢ cients on the predictors in a forecasting model to change over time. Second, it allows for the entire forecasting model to change over time. Third, it surmounts statistical problems which arise from the large number of potential predictors that can explain carbon prices. Our empirical results indicate that there are both important policy and statistical benefits with our approach. Statistically, we present strong evidence that there is substantial turbulence and change in the EU ETS market, and that DMA can model these features and forecast accurately compared to conventional approaches. From a policy perspective, we discuss the relative and changing role of different price drivers in the EU ETS. Finally, we document the forecast performance of DMA and discuss how this relates to the efficiency and maturity of this market.Bayesian, carbon permit trading, financial markets, state space model, model averaging

The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system

The study aims to examine the efficiency aspects of the international carbon market, with a focus on economic impacts on the European energy system, by analyzing the sectoral Marginal Abatements Cost Curves (MACC) and the trading under different global carbon market configurations in 2010 and in 2020. To produce a consistent and realistic assessment we employ sources such as: second NAPs under ETS, GHG National Inventories, EIA data and POLES world energy model to constitute the sectoral base year and 2010, 2020 emission levels in different countries and regions. We then use the market analysis tool ASPEN, which enables to derive supply and demand from sectoral MACCs produced with POLES model, and to evaluate the economic impacts on the carbon market participants. The paper shows in particular that in compliance with 2020 emission reduction targets, the benefits of an extended carbon market gain importance since more than 50% of the reduction target is achieved by ETS sectors and especially electricity sector. Furthermore, the new flexibility margins provided by a longer time-period for the adjustment of investments in new generation capacities compensates for the increasing pressure towards stronger emission reductionsemission trading ; international carbon market ; CO2 price

The Carbon Rush: The Truth Behind the Carbon Market Smokescreen edited by Amy Miller

Michael Classens reviews The Carbon Rush: The Truth Behind the Carbon Market Smokescreen, edited by Amy Miller

CARBON MARKET: BUSINESS INCENTIVES FOR SUSTAINABILITY

The Protocol resulting from the 1997 Conference of Parties in Kyoto finally set emission caps for several developed countries and introduced the possibility of market creation mechanisms on carbon emission trading. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was then created for emission trading between countries with caps and those with no caps. The CDM market will pursue the opportunities for lowest costs on carbon reductions available in each country with no emission target, as is the case of Brazil. The positive differentials of Brazil will only be realized if there is, mainly in national terms, a favorable atmosphere to the development of new business and the proper importance to the environmental commitments of reduction of the greenhouse effect. The excess of bureaucracy and governmental controls added to the lack of a policy and of a clear institutional guidance of support to the consistent initiatives of CDM projects. They are decisive obstacles for the achievement of the potentialities and for a good position of Brazil in the trade of CERs. Making use of the teachings of Nobel Prize Ronald Coase, this paper has as a goal to show the necessary institutional conditions for Brail to make use of the development from this market.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Is there a room for a "CO2 Central Bank"?.

European carbon market; price; security;

Derivative Pricing and Hedging on Carbon Market

The aim of this work is to bring an econometric approach upon the CO2 market. We identify the specificities of this market, and analyze the carbon as a commodity. We investigate the econometric particularities of CO2 prices behavior and their result of the calibration. We apprehend and explain the reasons of the non-Gaussian behavior of this market focusing mainly upon jump diffusions and generalized hyperbolic distributions. These models are used for pricing and hedging of carbon options. We estimate the pricing accuracy of each model and the capacity to provide an efficient dynamic hedging.Carbon, Normal Inverse Gaussian, CER, EUA, swap.

Options for International Financing of Climate Change Mitigation in Developing Countries

This paper provides a model-based analysis of the potential macro-economic impacts of different options for international financing of climate change mitigation in developing countries. The model used is the multi-region and multi-sector climate change version of the WorldScan model. Following the outcome of the UNFCCC conference in Copenhagen, it makes no specific assumptions about the future international climate regime. The analysis shows that the environmental prospects systematically improve in a transition from the Clean Development Mechanism projects towards a global carbon market, while the opposite is foreseen for the economic costs. The more of a carbon market we have when moving from the project-based CDM to sectoral crediting mechanisms and internationally linked cap-and-trade, the more finance the carbon market will channel to developing countries.european union eu annex I non-annex I climate conference in Copenhagen climate change mitigation clean development mechanism emission trading system the US brazil china india own participation of developing countries sectoral crediting mechanisms hayden Veenendaal Zarnic

The size of the carbon market study: discussion

This is an invited discussion on the Morozova and Stuart’s paper “The Size of the Carbon Market Study”. It suggests a number of issues for consideration in appropriately estimating the size of carbon markets. They include Annex 1 (industrialised) countries’ baseline emissions; qualitative and quantitative assessments of the role of carbon sinks; and the difficulty from an economic and legal perspective of interpreting and inferring impacts in relation to specific provisions attached to each flexibility mechanism for regulating the extent of their use.Emissions trading; Clean development mechanism; Joint implementation; Carbon market; Greenhouse gases; European Union; Supplementarity restrictions