Deviations from Gaussianity in deterministic discrete time dynamical systems

In this paper we examine the deviations from Gaussianity for two types of random variable converging to a normal distribution, namely sums of random variables generated by a deterministic discrete time map and a linearly damped variable driven by a deterministic map. We demonstrate how Edgeworth expansions provide a universal description of the deviations from the limiting normal distribution. We derive explicit expressions for these asymptotic expansions and provide numerical evidence of their accuracy

Promotion or protection : the management of tourist visitation to New Zealand's Antarctic and sub-Antarctic territories New Zealand as a case study : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Studies in Management Systems at Massey University

Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic islands are among the last regions on earth that are still relatively unspoilt from human activity. At the same time, they are also among the last tourism frontiers in the world. The forms of tourism, trends, impacts and the current management mechanisms are described and assessed. New Zealand is offered as a case-study because it is experiencing increased visitation to its Antarctic and sub-Antarctic territories. As claimant to a section of Antarctica and signatory to the Antarctic Treaty, New Zealand has a vested interest in preserving this unique area. As the operator of Antarctic bases, it is probable that the New Zealand government may be called upon to provide assistance to tourist expeditions in the Antarctic. New Zealand companies are involved in tourist visits to the sub-Antarctic islands. Attention is drawn to areas of concern, and the various policies New Zealand applies to Antarctic and sub-Antarctic ecotourism are analysed. The need for a sustainable tourist management regime is examined, in order to balance the paradox between preservation and visitation. The varying aspects of international and national management regimes to manage Antarctic and sub-Antarctic tourism are discussed. Antarctica is managed by an international system, whereas the sub-Antarctic islands are subject to national legislation. This has implications for tourism management in these regions. It is questioned whether the present tourist regulations are adequate to protect the sub-Antarctic and Antarctic environments from the impacts of tourism. It is suggested that the current mechanisms are not sufficient, and the establishment of an International Convention on Antarctic and sub-Antarctic Tourism is proposed

Economic cycles in the United States and in the euro area : determinants, scale and linkages

This article analyses the business cycles observed in the euro area and in the United States on the basis of the estimated results of a general equilibrium model. In the first place it is shown that the cyclical movements in both economies show strong similarities : there are no significant divergences in the behavioural parameters of either the private sector or the monetary authorities, while also the various exogenous shocks, being the driving force behind the business cycles in this model, prove to be comparable in terms of scale and persistence. On the basis of the estimated models, the observed cyclical movements may be ascribed to various types of exogenous shocks, such as innovations in productivity, the labour supply, consumer preferences or economic policy. In the short term, the business cycles appear mainly to have been generated by demand shocks (preference and investment shocks, exogenous demand shocks and monetary shocks). During recession periods simultaneous demand shocks in consumption and investment spending appear to play an important part. In the long term, shocks affecting the labour supply and productivity are the driving forces. As to the inflation developments, especially temporary mark-up shocks prevail in the short term, although in the long term inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon and is being guided by the inflation target of the central bank. The limited effect of monetary shocks on the real economy does not imply that monetary policy is insignificant. The systematic behaviour of the central bank is important in order to understand how the other shocks affect the economy. It is here that monetary policy can contribute to a more stable and efficient economic growth. In addition to the causes of the cyclical movements, the downward trend in the volatility of the economic aggregates is being discussed. The reduction of the volatility in real growth of both the euro area and the United States, especially since the mid 1980s, is mainly related to the fact that the size of the exogenous shocks has been smaller. Changes in the economic structure or dynamics and a more efficient monetary policy in themselves do not account for the sharp reduction of real volatility. The same findings may also help to explain the synchronisation of the business cycles between the two economic blocks. Despite the globalisation of the economy, there is no clear trend towards more correlation in economic growth. The relatively small scale of the simultaneous – predominantly demand-related – shocks having occurred recently, may provide some explanation. In the absence of severe synchronised shocks, country- or sector-specific shocks remained relatively important to the pattern of economic activity. As to the future, this implies that it would be wrong to be too optimistic about the dynamic stability of the economy or the efficiency of stabilisation policies.DSGE models, Business cycle fluctuations

On Friendship, Equality and Introductions: Comparing English and German Regimes of Manners and Emotions

This paper explores friendship by analysing some of the characteristic differences in manners between the Germans and the English, from the end of the nineteenth century until the 1970s. During that time rules for introductions were a major if not the most prominent topic in English manners books, whereas these rules attracted hardly any attention in the German ones. In an opposite way, the same goes for friendship: the topic was almost absent in English manners books while it was a central theme in German ones, together with topics such as duzen – addressing each other with the informal you: Du. Establishing a 'friendship' as well as 'being properly introduced' are both ritual transitions from a rather distant and hierarchical relationship in the direction of greater 'equality' and intimacy. These different forms are explained by placing them in the context of their national class structures and by connecting them to differences in the processes of social emancipation and national integration.Historical and International Comparison of Germany and England: Friendship, Equality, Introductions, Privacy, Good Society, Social Mobility, Informalization, and Regimes of Manners and Emotions

Material Considerations in Architectural Design: A Study of the Aspects Identified by Architects for Selecting Materials

Material selection in architecture is not only about choosing the strongest, cheapest, or most obvious materials available. Architects also choose warm, formal, functional, or local materials for buildings. And the material options are not limited by only these considerations. The material selection process is a complex process that is influenced and determined by numerous preconditions, decisions and considerations. The current material selection tools, however, focus mainly on the technical aspects of materials. In order to make well-considered and justifiable material choices, architects have a need for information on the whole spectrum of aspects considered during the design and selection process. Earlier work presented a framework, based on a literature study and the analysis of in-depth interviews, in which the different attributes of materials that contribute to a design project were identified and organized. To refine this framework and make it available for architects during the material selection process, a group of architects was selected and assembled into a focus group. This study presents how the focus group identified, classified and commented on the considerations that are made by architects while selecting materials for a project. The evaluation of the collected data, and the discussion within the group, permitted the formulation of comments and resulted in a revised framework of material considerations, useful during the design and selection process of a material. Material properties (1), Experience (2), Manufacturing process (3), and Context (4) were identified as the different elements that are related to the material selection process. The four groups are presented here in detail. Keywords: Material Selection; Design Aspects; Architectural Experience; Material Attributes; Focus Group; Design Process</p

Dynamical quantum depletion in polariton condensates

We present a theoretical study of the quantum depletion of microcavity polaritons that are excited with a resonant laser pulse. The dynamics of the quantum fluctuations are interpreted in the context of quantum quenches in general and in terms of the dynamical Casimir effect in particular. We compute the time evolution of the first and second order correlation functions of the polariton condensate. Our theoretical modelling is based on the truncated Wigner approximation for interacting Bose gases. For homogeneous systems, analytical results are obtained in the linearised Bogoliubov approximation. Inhomogeneous systems are studied numerically by Monte Carlo simulations.Comment: 7 pages, 10 figure

Individual Leadership in Guiding Change in Global Governance Institutions: Theory and Practice

It is increasingly accepted that in order for international organizations to address fully the panoply of threats and concerns at the international level the current structure of global governance, particularly the design of major international institutions, requires some level of reform. In different fields and at different levels, this reform has been discussed and debated, but has mostly stalled. Increasingly, it is the executive heads of an organization that are called upon to show stronger leadership during times of crisis and change. No longer viewed as merely managers or administrative posts, the leadership shown byexecutive heads of international organizations is now strongly linked with the effectiveness of these organizations. This working paper seeks to understand the role of leaders in driving, and responding to, change in international organizations. What does leadership, a term often used in relation to national politics, mean in the context of an international organization? How do leaders drive change within these bodies, and how do they effectively respond to external and internal challenges and threats? This paper argues that individual leaders, particularly during times of crisis, can play an important role in guiding change and reform. The first part discusses the concept of leadership in the context of international organizations, and discusses some of the ways in which executive heads can pursue change and reform in their organization. The second part turns to the specific example of the UN Secretary General, an executive head who, despite having a relatively minor role on paper, in some cases has been able to implement meaningful change in the organization. The paper argues that executive heads can and should show greater political leadership in reforming organizations and improving their effectiveness