Letter to the Editor: Authors' response.

yesWe thank Professors Evans and Wilkins for their interest in our systematic review.(1) We have reached the same conclusion as previous systematic reviews published in 2008(2) and 2014(3) and a review prepared for the New Zealand Ministry for Health in 2009.(4) Even the ‘alternative systematic review’ prepared by Professors Evans and Allen about which we have significant misgivings concludes that ‘larger and rigorous randomised controlled trials of interventions for visual stress are required’.(5)A response to Professors Evans and Wilkins regarding the systematic review: Griffiths PG, Taylor RH, Henderson LM and Barrett BT (2016) The effect of coloured overlays and lenses on reading: a systematic review of the literature. Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics. 36: 519–544

Likely country of origin in publications on randomised controlled trials and controlled clinical trials during the last 60 years

BACKGROUND: The number of publications on clinical trials is unknown as well as the countries publishing most trial reports. To try to examine these questions we performed an ecological study. METHODS: We searched the 454,449 records on publications in The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in The Cochrane Library, Issue 3, 2005 (CD-ROM version) for possible country of origin. We inspected a random sample of 906 records for information on country and type of trial. RESULTS: There was an exponential growth of publications on randomised controlled trials and controlled clinical trials since 1946, but the growth seems to have seized since 2000. We identified the possible country of origin of 210,974 publications (46.4%). The USA is leading with about 46,789 publications followed by UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Canada, and France. Sweden becomes the leader with 891 publications per million inhabitants during the last 60 years followed by Denmark (n = 864), New Zealand (n = 791), Finland (n = 781), the Netherlands (n = 570), Switzerland (n = 547), and Norway (n = 543). In depth assessment of the random sample backed these findings. CONCLUSION: Many records lacked country of origin, even after the additional scrutiny. The number of publications on clinical trials increased exponentially until the turn of the century. Rather small, democratic, and wealthy countries take the lead when the number of publications on clinical trials is calculated based on million inhabitants. If all countries produced the same number of trials as these countries, this could mean thousands of new effective treatments during the next 60 years

The fading of reported effectiveness. A meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND: The "real" effect size of a medical therapy is constant over time. In contrast, the effect size reported in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) may change over time because the sum of all kinds of bias influencing the reported effectiveness is not necessarily constant. As this would affect the validity of meta-analyses, we tested the hypothesis that the reported effect size decreases over time. Furthermore, we tested three hypotheses that would explain a possible change. METHODS: Because of well established outcome measures, the lipid-lowering drugs Pravastatin and Atorvastatin (serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, LDL-C) and the anti-glaucoma drugs Timolol and Latanoprost (intraocular pressure, IOP) were chosen for this investigation. Studies were identified by a standardized MEDLINE search. RCTs investigating the above identified medications administered as monotherapy, and in defined dosages, were included. Publication year, baseline (= pre-treatment value in the treatment group of interest) and post intervention means, number of patients and the assignment to experimental or control group were extracted for each study. RESULTS: A total of 625 citations were screened; 206 met the inclusion criteria. The reported effect size of Pravastatin (change of reported effect size in five years: -3.22% LDL-C, P < .0001), Timolol (-0.56 mmHg, P < .0001) and Latanoprost (-1.78 mmHg, P = .0074) decreased over time, while there was no significant change for Atorvastatin (+0.31% LDL-C, P = .8618). Multiple regression analysis showed that baseline values were the most important influencing factor; study size or treatment group did not play a significant role. CONCLUSION: The effectiveness of medical therapies reported in RCTs decreases over time in three of the four investigated pharmaceuticals, caused mainly by baseline differences. We call this phenomenon "fading of reported effectiveness". Under this condition the validity of a meta-analysis may be impaired. Therefore we propose to observe this phenomenon in future meta-analyses in order to guarantee a maximum of transparency

Public health impact of antiviral therapy for hepatitis C in the United States

Despite dramatic improvements in antiviral therapy for hepatitis C, there is reason to believe that the uptake of antiviral therapy remains limited. The aims of this study were to determine the number of patients being treated with antiviral therapy in the U.S., to estimate the public health impact of these treatment patterns, and to identify barriers to treatment for patients with hepatitis C. Data on the number of new patient pegylated interferon prescriptions each year, from 2002–2007, was obtained from Wolters Kluwer Inc., which maintains an electronic audit of pharmacies nationwide. A Markov model was created of the population with chronic hepatitis C in the U.S. from 2002 to 2030, and was used to estimate the number of liver-related deaths caused by hepatitis C that will be prevented by current treatment patterns. The National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Survey (NHANES) Hepatitis C Follow-Up Questionnaire was used to investigate reasons for lack of treatment and to identify strategies for improving access. Approximately 663,000 patients received antiviral therapy between 2002 and 2007, and treatment rates appear to be declining. If this trend continues, only 14.5% of liver-related deaths caused by hepatitis C from 2002–2030 will be prevented by antiviral therapy. Results from the NHANES questionnaire suggest that the primary barrier to treatment is lack of diagnosis, with 69/133 (adjusted proportion 49%) of respondents previously unaware that they had hepatitis C. Conclusion: Efforts to improve rates of diagnosis and treatment will be required if the future public health burden of hepatitis C is to be ameliorated. (H EPATOLOGY 2009.)Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64534/1/23220_ftp.pd

Can we rely on the best trial? A comparison of individual trials and systematic reviews

BACKGROUND: The ideal evidence to answer a question about the effectiveness of treatment is a systematic review. However, for many clinical questions a systematic review will not be available, or may not be up to date. One option could be to use the evidence from an individual trial to answer the question? METHODS: We assessed how often (a) the estimated effect and (b) the p-value in the most precise single trial in a meta-analysis agreed with the whole meta-analysis. For a random sample of 200 completed Cochrane Reviews (January, 2005) we identified a primary outcome and extracted: the number of trials, the statistical weight of the most precise trial, the estimate and confidence interval for both the highest weighted trial and the meta-analysis overall. We calculated the p-value for the most precise trial and meta-analysis. RESULTS: Of 200 reviews, only 132 provided a meta-analysis of 2 or more trials, with a further 35 effect estimates based on single trials. The average number of trials was 7.3, with the most precise trial contributing, on average, 51% of the statistical weight to the summary estimate from the whole meta-analysis. The estimates of effect from the most precise trial and the overall meta-analyses were highly correlated (rank correlation of 0.90).There was an 81% agreement in statistical conclusions. Results from the most precise trial were statistically significant in 60 of the 167 evaluable reviews, with 55 of the corresponding systematic reviews also being statistically significant. The five discrepant results were not strikingly different with respect to their estimates of effect, but showed considerable statistical heterogeneity between trials in these meta-analyses. However, among the 101 cases in which the most precise trial was not statistically significant, the corresponding meta-analyses yielded 31 statistically significant results. CONCLUSIONS: Single most precise trials provided similar estimates of effects to those of the meta-analyses to which they contributed, and statistically significant results are generally in agreement. However, "negative" results were less reliable, as may be expected from single underpowered trials. For systematic reviewers we suggest that: (1) key trial(s) in a review deserve greater attention (2) systematic reviewers should check agreement of the most precise trial and the meta analysis. For clinicians using trials we suggest that when a meta-analysis is not available, a focus on the most precise trial is reasonable provided it is adequately powered

Funding source, trial outcome and reporting quality: are they related? Results of a pilot study

BACKGROUND: There has been increasing concern regarding the potential effects of the commercialization of research. METHODS: In order to examine the relationships between funding source, trial outcome and reporting quality, recent issues of five peer-reviewed, high impact factor, general medical journals were hand-searched to identify a sample of 100 randomized controlled trials (20 trials/journal). Relevant data, including funding source (industry/not-for-profit/mixed/not reported) and statistical significance of primary outcome (favouring new treatment/favouring conventional treatment/neutral/unclear), were abstracted. Quality scores were assigned using the Jadad scale and the adequacy of allocation concealment. RESULTS: Sixty-six percent of trials received some industry funding. Trial outcome was not associated with funding source (p= .461). There was a preponderance of favourable statistical conclusions among published trials with 67% reporting results that favored a new treatment whereas 6% favoured the conventional treatment. Quality scores were not associated with funding source or trial outcome. CONCLUSIONS: It is not known whether the absence of significant associations between funding source, trial outcome and reporting quality reflects a true absence of an association or is an artefact of inadequate statistical power, reliance on voluntary disclosure of funding information, a focus on trials recently published in the top medical journals, or some combination thereof. Continued and expanded monitoring of potential conflicts is recommended, particularly in light of new guidelines for disclosure that have been endorsed by the ICMJE

Interventions encouraging the use of systematic reviews by health policymakers and managers: A systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Systematic reviews have the potential to inform decisions made by health policymakers and managers, yet little is known about the impact of interventions to increase the use of systematic reviews by these groups in decision making.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We systematically reviewed the evidence on the impact of interventions for seeking, appraising, and applying evidence from systematic reviews in decision making by health policymakers or managers. Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Methodology Register, Health Technology Assessment Database, and LISA were searched from the earliest date available until April 2010. Two independent reviewers selected studies for inclusion if the intervention intended to increase seeking, appraising, or applying evidence from systematic reviews by a health policymaker or manager. Minimum inclusion criteria were a description of the study population and availability of extractable data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>11,297 titles and abstracts were reviewed, leading to retrieval of 37 full-text articles for assessment; four of these articles met all inclusion criteria. Three articles described one study where five systematic reviews were mailed to public health officials and followed up with surveys at three months and two years. The articles reported from 23% to 63% of respondents declaring they had used systematic reviews in policymaking decisions. One randomised trial indicated that tailored messages combined with access to a registry of systematic reviews had a significant effect on policies made in the area of healthy body weight promotion in health departments.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The limited empirical data renders the strength of evidence weak for the effectiveness and the types of interventions that encourage health policymakers and managers to use systematic reviews in decision making.</p

A Systematic Evaluation of the Impact of STRICTA and CONSORT Recommendations on Quality of Reporting for Acupuncture Trials

Background: We investigated whether there had been an improvement in quality of reporting for randomised controlled trials of acupuncture since the publication of the STRICTA and CONSORT statements. We conducted a before-and-after study, comparing ratings for quality of reporting following the publication of both STRICTA and CONSORT recommendations. Methodology and Principal Findings: Ninety peer reviewed journal articles reporting the results of acupuncture trials were selected at random from a wider sample frame of 266 papers. Papers published in three distinct time periods (1994–1995, 1999–2000 and 2004–2005) were compared. Assessment criteria were developed directly from CONSORT and STRICTA checklists. Papers were independently assessed for quality of reporting by two assessors, one of whom was blind to information which could have introduced systematic bias (e.g. date of publication). We detected a statistically significant increase in the reporting of CONSORT items for papers published in each time period measured. We did not, however, find a difference between the number of STRICTA items reported in journal articles published before and 3 to 4 years following the introduction of STRICTA recommendations. Conclusions and Significance: The results of this study suggest that general standards of reporting for acupuncture trials have significantly improved since the introduction of the CONSORT statement in 1996, but that quality in reporting detail