The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices

This article is the winner of the Innovative Thinking ‘‘Thinking Out of the Box’’ manuscript prize (sponsored by the Homer Hoyt Advanced Studies Institute) presented at the 2001 American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting. This study examines the dynamics of real housing price appreciation in 130 metropolitan areas across the United States. The study finds that real housing price appreciation is strongly influenced by the growth of population and real changes in income, construction costs and interest rates. The study also finds that stock market appreciation imparts a strong current and lagged wealth effect on housing prices. Housing appreciation rates also are found to vary across areas because of location-specific fixed-effects; these fixed effects represent the residuals of housing price appreciation attributable to location. The magnitudes of the fixed-effects in particular cities are positively correlated with restrictive growth management policies and limitations on land availability.

On the speed of convergence to stationarity of the Erlang loss system

We consider the Erlang loss system, characterized by $N$ servers, Poisson arrivals and exponential service times, and allow the arrival rate to be a function of $N.$ We discuss representations and bounds for the rate of convergence to stationarity of the number of customers in the system, and display some bounds for the total variation distance between the time-dependent and stationary distributions. We also pay attention to time-dependent rates

Fluid Models of Many-server Queues with Abandonment

We study many-server queues with abandonment in which customers have general service and patience time distributions. The dynamics of the system are modeled using measure- valued processes, to keep track of the residual service and patience times of each customer. Deterministic fluid models are established to provide first-order approximation for this model. The fluid model solution, which is proved to uniquely exists, serves as the fluid limit of the many-server queue, as the number of servers becomes large. Based on the fluid model solution, first-order approximations for various performance quantities are proposed

Analysis of the morbidity rate off sexually transmitted diseases associated with HIV infection in the Republic of Bashkortostan

In the article has been analyzed the dynamics of primary morbidity of the HIV infection, of the sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and also their combination in the Republic of Bashkortostan in 2011 -2015. It has been revealed that the primary incidence of STD associated with HIV infection is growing. The syphilis is prevailing among the infections combined with the HIV and its share in the structure increases. Has been registered an increase of coinfection HIV with trichomonas, anogenital herpesviral infection, anogenital (venereal) warts. Results of the research can be used in the planning and organization of activities for the prevention of HIV infection among STD patients.В статье проанализирована динамика первичной заболеваемости ВИЧ-инфекцией, инфекциями передаваемыми половым путем (ИППП), а также их сочетанием в Республике Башкортостан в 2011-2015 годах. Выявлено, что первичная заболеваемость ИППП сочетанными с ВИЧ-инфекцией растет. Среди ИППП, сочетанных с ВИЧ-инфекцией, преобладает сифилис, его удельный в структуре увеличивается. Регистрировался рост коинфекции ВИЧ с трихомониазом, аногенитальной герпетической вирусной инфекцией, аногенитальными венерическими бородавками. Результаты исследования могут быть использованы при планировании и организации мероприятий по профилактике ВИЧ-инфекции, среди больных ИППП

Features of the demographic situation in the Republic of Dagestan (2002-2012)

The subject of the study: demographic indicators in the Republic of Dagestan (RD) from 2002 to 2012. Topic of the research: dynamics and structure of the demographic data in RD and Russian Federation (RF). Objective: comprehensive analysis of the geographical features of RD, dynamics and structure of the demographic data in RD and RF from 2002 to 2012; detection features of demographic situation in RD in comparison to RF. Methodology: study of the indicators of the total population, its structure by age, sex, place of residence, including women and children; total death rate, birth rate, natality in the dynamics of RD in comparison to RF. Results: demographic situation in RD is characterized by high rate of natality due to the high level of growing birthrate, which is steady exceeding the index in RF more than 1,5 times while there is low index of death rate, that is progressively decreases and remains lower than in RF not less than 2,4 times; by increasing index of natality from 2005 to 2012, that reached level of 13,4 per 1000 population in 2012, this index is higher than in RF (0 per 1000); by a high proportion of rural population, that is higher than in RF more than 2 times (55,4% and 26% respectively); by high proportion of women of childbearing age (56,3% of the total female population), most of them live in the countryside (55%), by a high proportion of child population (0-14 years old), which is higher thatT in RF 1,6 times, that represents 24,9% and 15,5% respectively and with an equal index of working population proportion (62,2% and 36,2% respectively) indicates a high demographic and socio­economic burden on the working population in RD. Range of application of the results: when forming programs for optimizing the structure of health care in RD and in other subjects of RF; when forming territorial programs of Government guarantees of health care in RD and in other subjects of RF. Findings: integrated assessment of geographical features, transport connection, demographical situation features in the region, a detailed study of the reasons why the death rate of population is higher than average index in the RF, should be considered when planning structure and volume of medical care in the region.Предмет исследования: демографические показатели Республики Дагестан (РД) 2002-2012гг. Тема исследования: динамика и структура демографических показателей РД и Российской Федерации (РФ). Цель работы: анализ географических особенностей, динамики и структуры демографических показателей РД в период 2002-2012гг. в сравнении с РФ, выявление особенностей демографической ситуации в РД. Методология: изучение показателей общей численности населения РД, ее структуры по возрасту, полу, месту жительства, в т.ч. женского и детского; общей смертности населения, рождаемости, естественного прироста в динамике в сравнении с РФ. Результаты: демографическая ситуация в РД характеризуется: высоким темпом естественного прироста населения за счет высокого растущего уровня рождаемости, стабильно превышающего показатель в РФ более, чем в 1,5 раза на фоне низкого показателя общей смертности населения, который прогрессивно снижаясь, остается ниже, чем в РФ не менее, чем в 2,4 раза; увеличением показателя естественного прироста населения в 2005- 2012гг. на 58% с достижением в 2012г. уровня 13,4на 1000 населения, что выше, чем в РФ(0 на 1000 населения); высокой долей сельского населения, превышающей показатель в РФ более, чем в 2 раза (55,4% и 26% соответственно);высокой долей женщин детородного возраста (56,3 % от общей численности женского населения), большая часть которых проживает в сельской местности (55%);высокой долей детского населения (0-14 лет), превышающей показатель в РФ в 1,6 раза, что составляет 24,9% и 15,5% соответственно и при равном показателе доли трудоспособного населения (62,2% и63,2% соответственно), свидетельствует о высокой демографической и социально-экономической нагрузке на трудоспособное население РД. Область применения результатов: при формировании Программ оптимизации структуры оказания медицинской помощи в РД и других субъектах РФ; при формировании территориальных программ Государственных гарантий оказания медицинской помощи в РД и других субъектах РФ. Выводы: комплексная оценка географических особенностей, транспортного сообщения, особенностей демографической ситуации в регионе, детальное изучение причин, по которым показатели смертности населения превышают общероссийские показатели, необходимо учитывать при планировании структуры и объемов медицинской помощи в регионе

Antifascism, the 1956 Revolution and the politics of communist autobiographies in Hungary 1944-2000

This is a postprint of an article whose final and definitive form has been published in Europe-Asia Studies © 2006 University of Glasgow; Europe-Asia Studies is available online at http://www.informaworld.com.Using oral history, this contribution explores the reshaping of individuals' public and private autobiographies in response to different political environments. In particular, it analyses the testimony of those who were communists in Hungary between 1945 and 1956, examining how their experiences of fascism, party membership, the 1956 Revolution and the collapse of communism led them in each case to refashion their life stories. Moreover, it considers how their biographies played varying functions at different points in their lives: to express identification with communism, to articulate resistance and to communicate ambition before 1956; to protect themselves from the state after 1956; and to rehabilitate themselves morally in a society which stigmatised them after 1989.I didn't use this word 'liberation' (felszabadulás), because in 1956 my life really changed. Everybody's lives went through a great change, but mine especially. … I wasn't disgusted with myself that I had called the arrival of the Red Army in 1945 a liberation, but [after 1956] I didn't use it anymore