The economics of tobacco control in South Africa

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 193-207)

Impact of the Sectoral Determination for Farm Workers on the South African Sugar Industry: Case Study of the KwaZulu-Natal North and South Coasts

A survey of 103 sugarcane farmers on the KwaZulu-Natal coast was conducted in order to analyse the impact of the Sectoral Determination for Farm Workers (2002) on South African agriculture. The sample was separated into a high wage paying North Coast and lower wage paying South Coast. Typically farmers were unable to distinguish between the impact of the Sectoral Determination and other labour laws. Results indicate that the impact of the legislation is similar in each region. No respondents reported mass retrenchment, but job shedding is disguised by not replacing workers (especially unskilled workers) that leave the farm. A sizeable number of growers (17 per cent on the South Coast and 44 per cent on the North Coast) have reduced the working week to 27 hours (or 36 hours in the Felixton Mill Group Area) enabling them to pay wages on an hourly, rather than a weekly basis. This strategy reduces the effective wage. About 40 per cent of growers have reduced the in-kind benefits to their workers. About half of respondents indicated that they are likely to increase their use of seasonal and contract labour in future. Although a majority of respondents indicated that they considered mechanisation of the harvesting process, cost and topographical factors currently does not make this a serious alternative to manual harvesting. However, because of increased wage costs and the relatively strong currency in recent years, chemical weed control has become an attractive alternative to manual weed control.Crop Production/Industries, Labor and Human Capital,

Recent trends in smoking prevalence in South Africa - Some evidence from AMPS data

Objective. To estimate trends in smoking prevalence among different demographic and income segments for the period 1993- 2000.Methodology. Annual data were obtained from a commercially generated database focusing on product usage. Using regression techniques, trends in smoking prevalence were estimated.Results. Since 1993 aggregate cigarette consumption has decreased by 26%. Smoking prevalence has decreased from 32% to 27% of.the adult population. This is ascribed mainly to the sharp increase iri cigarette prices. Sixty per cent of the decrease in per capita cigarette consumption is explained by a reduction in average consumption of smokers. The other 40% is explained by a reduction in smoking prevalence. Smoking prevalence has been decreasing for most demographic and socio-economic groups. The most significant decreases have been recorded for males, blacks, young adults, and low-income households. Groups that have not experienced significant decreases in smoking prevalence include coloureds, whites,females, and highincome households. Conclusion. Rapidly increasing excise taxes are a powerful policy tool in reducing cigarette consumption. Because poor people spend a larger proportion of their income on cigarettes, their relative tax burden is higher than the more affluent sections of society. Cigarette excise taxes are therefore regressive, However, since the poor tend to reduce their consumption by a greater percentage than the rich in response to price increases, excise increases are likely to reduce the regressiveness of the tax. Nevertheless, in view of the low quitting rates, a strong case exists for the government to subsidise cessation and nicotine replacement therapies, especially among the poor

Effect of excise tax increases on cigarette prices in South Africa

The effectiveness of excise tax as a tool for reducing tobacco consumption depends largely on how the tax increases impact retail prices. The study estimates this price relationship in South Africa (2001–2015). The magnitude of the price increase depends on the degree to which the tax increase is passed through to consumers. The degree of passthrough thus determines effectiveness. This paper considers the dynamics of cigarette excise tax passthrough in South Africa. People change their purchasing behavior in response to retail price changes, not in response to excise tax changes.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation grant number 408254 (IRMA 20177

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa in 2000

Objectives. To quantify the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa for 2000. Design. The absolute difference between observed lung cancer death rate and the level in non-smokers, adjusted for occupational and indoor exposure to lung carcinogens, was used to estimate the proportion of lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking and the smoking impact ratio (SIR). The SIR was substituted for smoking prevalence in the attributable fraction formula for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cancers to allow for the long lag between exposure and outcome. Assuming a shorter lag between exposure and disease, the current prevalence of smoking was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAF) for the other outcomes. Relative risks (RR) from the American Cancer Society cancer prevention study (CPS-II) were used to calculate PAF. Setting. South Africa. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to lung and other cancers, COPD, cardiovascular conditions, respiratory tuberculosis, and other respiratory and medical conditions. Results. Smoking caused between 41 632 and 46 656 deaths in South Africa, accounting for 8.0 - 9.0% of deaths and 3.7 - 4.3% of DALYs in 2000. Smoking ranked third (after unsafe sex/sexually transmitted disease and high blood pressure) in terms of mortality among 17 risk factors evaluated. Three times as many males as females died from smoking. Lung cancer had the largest attributable fraction due to smoking. However, cardiovascular diseases accounted for the largest proportion of deaths attributed to smoking. Conclusion. Cigarette smoking accounts for a large burden of preventable disease in South Africa. While the government has taken bold legislative action to discourage tobacco use since 1994, it still remains a major public health priority

Building capacity for applied research to reduce tobacco- related harm in low- and middle-income countries : the Tobacco Control Capacity Programme (TCCP)

Background: Tobacco use is the leading cause of preventable deaths in the world. By 2030, more than 80% of these tobacco-related deaths will occur in low- and mid- dle-income countries (LMICs). The aim of the Tobacco Control Capacity Programme (TCCP) therefore, is to reduce tobacco-related mortality and morbidity by building research capacity in LMICs. Methods: A consortium of fifteen partner organisations across eight countries (Ban- gladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, South Africa, the Gambia, Uganda and the UK) will offer extensive research methods and leadership training opportunities to conduct high quality research projects on policy and practice and establish strong research partnerships. An example of one such study using a mixed method design to inves- tigate tobacco industry interference in Uganda is presented. Results: The TCCP programme will produce research that can inform policies and practice within countries to prevent or reduce tobacco use. By conducting research in three key areas (tobacco taxation, reducing illicit trade, and addressing tobacco industry interference, as well as other local priorities) the programme will help to reduce tobacco disease and death and also generate revenue for governments through taxation which aids other development priorities. While conducting research in LMICs on these themes TCCP will provide evidence to support better implementation of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Controls (FCTC), which will result in re- ductions in tobacco-related mortality and morbidity and also help generate revenue for governments through taxation which aids other development priorities. Conclusion: The TCCP programme will create a cohort of skilled early-career re- searchers and research leaders who will build cohesive and successful research teams in LMICs. It will also create several collaborative networks of researchers, policy- makers and advocates to co-produce context-specific research on tobacco control and its translation into policy. This will advance implementation science in LMICs and improve population health. By generating context-specific evidence, the TCCP will support advocacy efforts to shift attitudes within communities and governments towards a stronger tobacco control. Policy makers will be assisted by the evidence generated in this programme to challenge aggressive tobacco industry tactics and implement effective tobacco control

Tobacco Excise Simulation Model (TETSiM)

Tool for tobacco control advocates and government officials considering the impact of a change in tobacco excise taxes on a number of variables. Useful simulation for considering impact of changes in tobacco excise taxes on a number of variables. By changing some of the input parameters, you can see how this affects the output values

South African economic issues

Lecture series coordinated by Associate Professor Corne van Walbeek, Head of School of Economics, University of Cape Town. This series of audio lectures will be of interest to those who wish to learn more about the current economic climate of South Africa

How accurate are South African macroeconomic forecasts?

This paper considers the ex post accuracy of two published sets of macroeconomic forecasts: the Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU's) Country Report and the "Economist of the Year" consensus forecast, sponsored by Media 24. Root weighted mean square errors (RWMSEs) of these two competing entities' forecasts are, on average, about 60% of the RWMSEs of adaptive naïve predictions for current-year forecasts and about 75% of the RWMSEs of adaptive naïve predictions for one-year-ahead forecasts. There is no substantial difference in the forecast accuracy of the two entities, despite large differences in forecasting methodology. Forecasts are revised on a monthly basis. Monthly revisions in Media 24's consensus forecast are substantially more likely to reduce forecast errors than the EIU's monthly forecast revisions. Revisions in the next-year forecasts for GDP growth and inflation are only marginally better than random, and thus such revisions have little credibility