British economic growth and the business cycle, 1700-1870 : annual estimates

This paper provides the first annual GDP series for Great Britain over the period 1700-1870. The series is constructed in real terms from the output side, using volume indicators and value added weights. Sectoral estimates are provided for agriculture, industry and services, and for a number of sub-sectors. Estimates of nominal GDP are also provided, based on a benchmark for 1841 and projected back to 1700 and forward to 1870 using the real output series and sectoral price indices. The new data are used to provide a consistent account of economic growth and the business cycle. The results are broadly consistent with the long run path of real output suggested by Crafts and Harley, although growth rates for sub-periods differ, largely as a result of changes in the growth of agriculture. Nominal GDP increased more rapidly than suggested by Lindert and Williamson during the eighteenth century, and more slowly than suggested by Deane and Cole during the first half of the nineteenth century, as a result of differences in the price indices. We also refine the business cycle chronologies of Ashton and Gayer, Rostow and Schwartz

From Hipparcos to Gaia

The measurement of the positions, distances, motions and luminosities of stars represents the foundations of modern astronomical knowledge. Launched at the end of the eighties, the ESA Hipparcos satellite was the first space mission dedicated to such measurements. Hipparcos improved position accuracies by a factor of 100 compared to typical ground-based results and provided astrometric and photometric multi-epoch observations of 118,000 stars over the entire sky. The impact of Hipparcos on astrophysics has been extremely valuable and diverse. Building on this important European success, the ESA Gaia cornerstone mission promises an even more impressive advance. Compared to Hipparcos, it will bring a gain of a factor 50 to 100 in position accuracy and of a factor of 10,000 in star number, collecting photometric, spectrophotometric and spectroscopic data for one billion celestial objects. During its 5-year flight, Gaia will measure objects repeatedly, up to a few hundred times, providing an unprecedented database to study the variability of all types of celestial objects. Gaia will bring outstanding contributions, directly or indirectly, to most fields of research in astrophysics, such as the study of our Galaxy and of its stellar constituents, the search for planets outside the solar system.Comment: 6 pages. New Horizons in Time Domain Astronomy Proceedings IAU Symposium No. 285, 2012, E. Griffin, B. Hanisch & R. Seaman, ed

Many-body Green's function theory for electron-phonon interactions: ground state properties of the Holstein dimer

We study ground-state properties of a two-site, two-electron Holstein model describing two molecules coupled indirectly via electron-phonon interaction by using both exact diagonalization and self-consistent diagrammatic many-body perturbation theory. The Hartree and self-consistent Born approximations used in the present work are studied at different levels of self-consistency. The governing equations are shown to exhibit multiple solutions when the electron-phonon interaction is sufficiently strong whereas at smaller interactions only a single solution is found. The additional solutions at larger electron-phonon couplings correspond to symmetry-broken states with inhomogeneous electron densities. A comparison to exact results indicates that this symmetry breaking is strongly correlated with the formation of a bipolaron state in which the two electrons prefer to reside on the same molecule. The results further show that the Hartree and partially self-consistent Born solutions obtained by enforcing symmetry do not compare well with exact energetics, while the fully self-consistent Born approximation improves the qualitative and quantitative agreement with exact results in the same symmetric case. This together with a presented natural occupation number analysis supports the conclusion that the fully self-consistent approximation describes partially the bipolaron crossover. These results contribute to better understanding how these approximations cope with the strong localizing effect of the electron-phonon interaction.Comment: 9 figures, corrected typo

Does individual variation in metabolic phenotype predict fish behaviour and performance?

There is increasing interest in documenting and explaining the existence of marked intraspecific variation in metabolic rate in animals, with fishes providing some of the best-studied examples. After accounting for variation due to other factors, there can typically be a two to three-fold variation among individual fishes for both standard and maximum metabolic rate (SMR and MMR). This variation is reasonably consistent over time (provided that conditions remain stable), and its underlying causes may be influenced by both genes and developmental conditions. In this paper, current knowledge of the extent and causes of individual variation in SMR, MMR and aerobic scope (AS), collectively its metabolic phenotype, is reviewed and potential links among metabolism, behaviour and performance are described. Intraspecific variation in metabolism has been found to be related to other traits: fishes with a relatively high SMR tend to be more dominant and grow faster in high food environments, but may lose their advantage and are more prone to risk-taking when conditions deteriorate. In contrast to the wide body of research examining links between SMR and behavioural traits, very little work has been directed towards understanding the ecological consequences of individual variation in MMR and AS. Although AS can differ among populations of the same species in response to performance demands, virtually nothing is known about the effects of AS on individual behaviours such as those associated with foraging or predator avoidance. Further, while factors such as food availability, temperature, hypoxia and the fish's social environment are known to alter resting and MMRs in fishes, there is a paucity of studies examining how these effects vary among individuals, and how this variation relates to behaviour. Given the observed links between metabolism and measures of performance, understanding the metabolic responses of individuals to changing environments will be a key area for future research because the environment will have a strong influence on which animals survive predation, become dominant and ultimately have the highest reproductive success. Although current evidence suggests that variation in SMR may be maintained within populations via context-dependent fitness benefits, it is suggested that a more integrative approach is now required to fully understand how the environment can modulate individual performance via effects on metabolic phenotypes encompassing SMR, MMR and AS

Design and Analysis of Randomized and Non-randomized Studies: Improving Validity and Reliability

The aim of the thesis is to investigate how to optimize the design and analysis of randomized and non-randomized therapeutic studies, in order to increase the validity and reliability of causal treatment effect estimates, specifically in heterogeneous diseases. The following research questions will be addressed: __1)__ What are the benefits of more advanced statistical analyses to estimate treatment effects from RTCs in heterogeneous diseases? a. What is the heterogeneity in acute neurological diseases with regard to baseline severity and further course of the disease? b. What is the potential gain in efficiency of covariate adjustment and proportional odds analysis in RCTs in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS)? __2)__ What is the validity and reliability of the RD design compared to an RCT to estimate causal treatment effects? a. What are threats to the validity of the RD design to estimate treatment effects compared to an RCT? b. How efficient is the RD design to estimate treatment effects compared to an RCT? c. What are the potential benefits of an alternative assignment approach in an RD design

Some modifications to the SNIP journal impact indicator

The SNIP (source normalized impact per paper) indicator is an indicator of the citation impact of scientific journals. The indicator, introduced by Henk Moed in 2010, is included in Elsevier's Scopus database. The SNIP indicator uses a source normalized approach to correct for differences in citation practices between scientific fields. The strength of this approach is that it does not require a field classification system in which the boundaries of fields are explicitly defined. In this paper, a number of modifications that will be made to the SNIP indicator are explained, and the advantages of the resulting revised SNIP indicator are pointed out. It is argued that the original SNIP indicator has some counterintuitive properties, and it is shown mathematically that the revised SNIP indicator does not have these properties. Empirically, the differences between the original SNIP indicator and the revised one turn out to be relatively small, although some systematic differences can be observed. Relations with other source normalized indicators proposed in the literature are discussed as well

THE USEFULNESS OF ANALYTICAL TOOLS FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES

The aim of this study is to assess the usefulness of analytical tools for policy evaluation. The study focuses on a multi-method integrated toolkit, the so-called SMILE toolkit. This toolkit consist of the integration of three evaluation frameworks developed within an EU-funded consortium called Development and Comparison of Sustainability (DECOIN) and further applied within the consortium Synergies in Multi-Scale Inter-Linkages of Eco-social systems (SMILE). This toolkit is developed to provide reporting features that are required for monitoring policy-making. The sustainable development perspective is rather difficult to attempt due to its dynamism and its multi-dimensionality. Therefore, in this study, we aim to assess the usefulness of the SMILE toolkit to sustainable development issues on the basis of the critical factors of sustainable development. In other words, here, we will prove the usefulness of the toolkit to help policymakers to think about and work on sustainable developments in the future.