A high-resolution haplotype-resolved Reference panel constructed from the China Kadoorie Biobank Study

Precision medicine depends on high-accuracy individual-level genotype data. However, the whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is still not suitable for gigantic studies due to budget constraints. It is particularly important to construct highly accurate haplotype reference panel for genotype imputation. In this study, we used 10 000 samples with medium-depth WGS to construct a reference panel that we named the CKB reference panel. By imputing microarray datasets, it showed that the CKB panel outperformed compared panels in terms of both the number of well-imputed variants and imputation accuracy. In addition, we have completed the imputation of 100 706 microarrays with the CKB panel, and the after-imputed data is the hitherto largest whole genome data of the Chinese population. Furthermore, in the GWAS analysis of real phenotype height, the number of tested SNPs tripled and the number of significant SNPs doubled after imputation. Finally, we developed an online server for offering free genotype imputation service based on the CKB reference panel (https://db.cngb.org/imputation/). We believe that the CKB panel is of great value for imputing microarray or low-coverage genotype data of Chinese population, and potentially mixed populations. The imputation-completed 100 706 microarray data are enormous and precious resources of population genetic studies for complex traits and diseases

Temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association with mortality: findings from the China Kadoorie Biobank study in Jiangsu Province

ObjectivesThe characteristics of multimorbidity in the Chinese population are currently unclear. We aimed to determine the temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association of multimorbidity with mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases.MethodsThis study analyzed data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study performed in Wuzhong District, Jiangsu Province. A total of 53,269 participants aged 30–79 years were recruited between 2004 and 2008. New diagnoses of 15 chronic diseases and death events were collected during the mean follow-up of 10.9 years. Yule's Q cluster analysis method was used to determine the clustering patterns of multimorbidity. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations of multimorbidity with mortalities.ResultsThe overall multimorbidity prevalence rate was 21.1% at baseline and 27.7% at the end of follow-up. Multimorbidity increased more rapidly during the follow-up in individuals who had a higher risk at baseline. Three main multimorbidity patterns were identified: (i) cardiometabolic multimorbidity (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and hypertension), (ii) respiratory multimorbidity (tuberculosis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and (iii) mental, kidney and arthritis multimorbidity (neurasthenia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease, and rheumatoid arthritis). There were 3,433 deaths during the follow-up. The mortality risk increased by 24% with each additional disease [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.20–1.29]. Compared with those without multimorbidity at baseline, both cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity were associated with increased mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was additionally associated with mortality from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, with HRs of 2.64 (95% CI = 2.19–3.19) and 28.19 (95% CI = 14.85–53.51), respectively. Respiratory multimorbidity was associated with respiratory disease mortality, with an HR of 9.76 (95% CI = 6.22–15.31).ConclusionThe prevalence of multimorbidity has increased substantially over the past decade. This study has revealed that cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity have significantly increased mortality rates. These findings indicate the need to consider high-risk populations and to provide local evidence for intervention strategies and health management in economically developed regions

Temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association with mortality: findings from the China Kadoorie Biobank study in Jiangsu Province

Objectives: The characteristics of multimorbidity in the Chinese population are currently unclear. We aimed to determine the temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association of multimorbidity with mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Methods: This study analyzed data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study performed in Wuzhong District, Jiangsu Province. A total of 53,269 participants aged 30–79 years were recruited between 2004 and 2008. New diagnoses of 15 chronic diseases and death events were collected during the mean follow-up of 10.9 years. Yule's Q cluster analysis method was used to determine the clustering patterns of multimorbidity. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations of multimorbidity with mortalities. Results: The overall multimorbidity prevalence rate was 21.1% at baseline and 27.7% at the end of follow-up. Multimorbidity increased more rapidly during the follow-up in individuals who had a higher risk at baseline. Three main multimorbidity patterns were identified: (i) cardiometabolic multimorbidity (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and hypertension), (ii) respiratory multimorbidity (tuberculosis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and (iii) mental, kidney and arthritis multimorbidity (neurasthenia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease, and rheumatoid arthritis). There were 3,433 deaths during the follow-up. The mortality risk increased by 24% with each additional disease [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.20–1.29]. Compared with those without multimorbidity at baseline, both cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity were associated with increased mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was additionally associated with mortality from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, with HRs of 2.64 (95% CI = 2.19–3.19) and 28.19 (95% CI = 14.85–53.51), respectively. Respiratory multimorbidity was associated with respiratory disease mortality, with an HR of 9.76 (95% CI = 6.22–15.31). Conclusion: The prevalence of multimorbidity has increased substantially over the past decade. This study has revealed that cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity have significantly increased mortality rates. These findings indicate the need to consider high-risk populations and to provide local evidence for intervention strategies and health management in economically developed regions

Lung cancer risk score for ever and never smokers in China

Background: Most lung cancer risk prediction models were developed in European and North-American cohorts of smokers aged ≥ 55 years, while less is known about risk profiles in Asia, especially for never smokers or individuals aged < 50 years. Hence, we aimed to develop and validate a lung cancer risk estimate tool for ever and never smokers across a wide age range. Methods: Based on the China Kadoorie Biobank cohort, we first systematically selected the predictors and explored the nonlinear association of predictors with lung cancer risk using restricted cubic splines. Then, we separately developed risk prediction models to construct a lung cancer risk score (LCRS) in 159,715 ever smokers and 336,526 never smokers. The LCRS was further validated in an independent cohort over a median follow-up of 13.6 years, consisting of 14,153 never smokers and 5,890 ever smokers. Results: A total of 13 and 9 routinely available predictors were identified for ever and never smokers, respectively. Of these predictors, cigarettes per day and quit years showed nonlinear associations with lung cancer risk (Pnon-linear < 0.001). The curve of lung cancer incidence increased rapidly above 20 cigarettes per day and then was relatively flat until approximately 30 cigarettes per day. We also observed that lung cancer risk declined sharply within the first 5 years of quitting, and then continued to decrease but at a slower rate in the subsequent years. The 6-year area under the receiver operating curve for the ever and never smokers’ models were respectively 0.778 and 0.733 in the derivation cohort, and 0.774 and 0.759 in the validation cohort. In the validation cohort, the 10-year cumulative incidence of lung cancer was 0.39% and 2.57% for ever smokers with low (< 166.2) and intermediate-high LCRS (≥ 166.2), respectively. Never smokers with a high LCRS (≥ 21.2) had a higher 10-year cumulative incidence rate than those with a low LCRS (< 21.2; 1.05% vs. 0.22%). An online risk evaluation tool (LCKEY; http://ccra.njmu.edu.cn/lckey/web) was developed to facilitate the use of LCRS. Conclusions: The LCRS can be an effective risk assessment tool designed for ever and never smokers aged 30 to 80 years

Maintaining healthy sleep patterns and frailty transitions: a prospective Chinese study

Background: Little is known about the effects of maintaining healthy sleep patterns on frailty transitions. Methods: Based on 23,847 Chinese adults aged 30–79 in a prospective cohort study, we examined the associations between sleep patterns and frailty transitions. Healthy sleep patterns included sleep duration at 7 or 8 h/d, without insomnia disorder, and no snoring. Participants who persisted with a healthy sleep pattern in both surveys were defined as maintaining a healthy sleep pattern and scored one point. We used 27 phenotypes to construct a frailty index and defined three statuses: robust, prefrail, and frail. Frailty transitions were defined as the change of frailty status between the 2 surveys: improved, worsened, and remained. Log-binomial regression was used to calculate the prevalence ratio (PR) to assess the effect of sleep patterns on frailty transitions. Results: During a median follow-up of 8.0 years among 23,847 adults, 45.5% of robust participants, and 10.8% of prefrail participants worsened their frailty status, while 18.6% of prefrail participants improved. Among robust participants at baseline, individuals who maintained sleep duration of 7 or 8 h/ds, without insomnia disorder, and no-snoring were less likely to worsen their frailty status; the corresponding PRs (95% CIs) were 0.92 (0.89–0.96), 0.76 (0.74–0.77), and 0.85 (0.82–0.88), respectively. Similar results were observed among prefrail participants maintaining healthy sleep patterns. Maintaining healthy sleep duration and without snoring, also raised the probability of improving the frailty status; the corresponding PRs were 1.09 (1.00–1.18) and 1.42 (1.31–1.54), respectively. Besides, a dose-response relationship was observed between constantly healthy sleep scores and the risk of frailty transitions (P for trend Conclusions: Maintaining a comprehensive healthy sleep pattern was positively associated with a lower risk of worsening frailty status and a higher probability of improving frailty status among Chinese adults

Cooking fuels and risk of all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality in urban China:a prospective cohort study

Background: Cooking practice has transitioned from use of solid fuels to use of clean fuels, with addition of better ventilation facilities. However, the change in mortality risk associated with such a transition remains unclear. Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) Study enrolled participants (aged 30–79 years) from ten areas across China; we chose to study participants from five urban areas where transition from use of solid fuels to clean fuels for cooking was prevalent. Participants who reported regular cooking (weekly or more frequently) at baseline were categorised as persistent clean fuel users, previous solid fuel users, or persistent solid fuel users, according to self-reported fuel use histories. All-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality were identified through linkage to China's Disease Surveillance Point system and local mortality records. Findings: Between June 24, 2004, and July 15, 2008, 226 186 participants living in five urban areas of China were enrolled in the CKB Study. Among 171 677 participants who reported cooking regularly (weekly or more frequently), 75 785 (44%) were persistent clean fuel users, 80 511 (47%) were previous solid fuel users, and 15 381 (9%) were persistent solid fuel users. During a mean of 9·8 (SD 1·7) years of follow-up, 10 831 deaths were documented, including 3819 cardiovascular deaths and 761 respiratory deaths. Compared with persistent clean fuel users, persistent solid fuel users had significantly higher risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1·19, 95% CI 1·10–1·28), cardiovascular mortality (1·24, 1·10–1·39), and respiratory mortality (1·43, 1·10–1·85). The excess risk of all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality fell by more than 60% in 5 years after cessation of solid fuel use and continued to decrease afterwards. Use of ventilation was associated with lower all-cause mortality risk, even among persistent clean fuel users (HR 0·78, 0·69–0·89). Interpretation: Solid fuel use for cooking is associated with a higher risk of mortality, and cessation of solid fuel use cuts excess mortality risks swiftly and substantially within 5 years. Ventilation use also lowers the risk of mortality, even among people who persistently use clean fuels. It is of prime importance for both policy makers and the public to accelerate the transition from solid fuels to clean fuels and promote efficient ventilation to minimise further adverse health effects.</p

Healthy lifestyle, DNA methylation age acceleration, and incident risk of coronary heart disease

Background DNA methylation clocks emerged as a tool to determine biological aging and have been related to mortality and age-related diseases. Little is known about the association of DNA methylation age (DNAm age) with coronary heart disease (CHD), especially in the Asian population. Results Methylation level of baseline blood leukocyte DNA was measured by Infinium Methylation EPIC BeadChip for 491 incident CHD cases and 489 controls in the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank. We calculated the methylation age using a prediction model developed among Chinese. The correlation between chronological age and DNAm age was 0.90. DNA methylation age acceleration (Δage) was defined as the residual of regressing DNA methylation age on the chronological age. After adjustment for multiple risk factors of CHD and cell type proportion, compared with participants in the bottom quartile of Δage, the OR (95% CI) for CHD was 1.84 (1.17, 2.89) for participants in the top quartile. One SD increment in Δage was associated with 30% increased risk of CHD (OR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.09, 1.56; Ptrend = 0.003). The average number of cigarette equivalents consumed per day and waist-to-hip ratio were positively associated with Δage; red meat consumption was negatively associated with Δage, characterized by accelerated aging in those who never or rarely consumed red meat (all P  Conclusions We first identified the association between DNAm age acceleration and incident CHD in the Asian population, and provided evidence that unfavorable lifestyle-induced epigenetic aging may play an important part in the underlying pathway to CHD

Associations between circulating proteins and cardiometabolic diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational and Mendelian randomisation studies

Background: Integration of large proteomics and genetic data in population-based studies can provide insights into discovery of novel biomarkers and potential therapeutic targets for cardiometabolic diseases (CMD). We aimed to synthesise existing evidence on the observational and genetic associations between circulating proteins and CMD. Methods: PubMed, Embase and Web of Science were searched until July 2023 for potentially relevant prospective observational and Mendelian randomisation (MR) studies investigating associations between circulating proteins and CMD, including coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, heart failure, atrial fibrillation and atherosclerosis. Two investigators independently extracted study characteristics using a standard form and pooled data using random effects models. Results: 50 observational, 25 MR and 10 studies performing both analyses were included, involving 26 414 160 non-overlapping participants. Meta-analysis of observational studies revealed 560 proteins associated with CMD, of which 133 proteins were associated with ≥2 CMDs (ie, pleiotropic). There were 245 potentially causal protein biomarkers identified in MR pooled results, involving 23 pleiotropic proteins. IL6RA and MMP12 were each causally associated with seven diseases. 22 protein-disease pairs showed directionally concordant associations in observational and MR pooled estimates. Addition of protein biomarkers to traditional clinical models modestly improved the accuracy of predicting incident CMD, with the highest improvement for heart failure (ΔC-index ~0.2). Of the 245 potentially causal proteins (291 protein-disease pairs), 3 pairs were validated by evidence of drug development from existing drug databases, 288 pairs lacked evidence of drug development and 66 proteins were drug targets approved for other indications. Conclusions: Combined analyses of observational and genetic studies revealed the potential causal role of several proteins in the aetiology of CMD. Novel protein biomarkers are promising targets for drug development and risk stratification. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42022350327

Development of a prediction model to identify undiagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients in primary care settings in China

Background: At present, a large number of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients are undiagnosed in China. Thus, this study aimed to develop a simple prediction model as a screening tool to identify patients at risk for COPD. Methods: The study was based on the data of 22,943 subjects aged 30 to 79 years and enrolled in the second resurvey of China Kadoorie Biobank during 2012 and 2013 in China. We stepwisely selected the predictors using logistic regression model. Then we tested the model validity through P–P graph, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), ten-fold cross validation and an external validation in a sample of 3492 individuals from the Enjoying Breathing Program in China. Results: The final prediction model involved 14 independent variables, including age, sex, location (urban/rural), region, educational background, smoking status, smoking amount (pack-years), years of exposure to air pollution by cooking fuel, family history of COPD, history of tuberculosis, body mass index, shortness of breath, sputum and wheeze. The model showed an area under curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72–0.73) for detecting undiagnosed COPD patients, with the cutoff of predicted probability of COPD=0.22, presenting a sensitivity of 70.13% and a specificity of 62.25%. The AUROC value for screening undiagnosed patients with clinically significant COPD was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66–0.69). Moreover, the ten-fold cross validation reported an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71–0.73), and the external validation presented an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.68–0.71). Conclusion: This prediction model can serve as a first-stage screening tool for undiagnosed COPD patients in primary care settings

Impacts of solid fuel use versus smoking on life expectancy at age 30 years in the rural and urban Chinese population: a prospective cohort study

Background: The impact of solid fuel use on life expectancy (LE) in less-developed countries remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the potential impact of household solid fuel use on LE in the rural and urban Chinese population, with the effect of smoking as a reference. Methods: We used data from China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) of 484,915 participants aged 30–79 free of coronary heart disease, stroke, or cancer at baseline. Analyses were performed separately for solid fuel use for cooking, solid fuel use for heating, and smoking, with participants exposed to the other two sources excluded. Solid fuels refer to coal and wood, and clean fuels refer to electricity, gas, and central heating. We used a flexible parametric Royston-Parmar model to estimate hazard ratios of all-cause mortality and predict LE at age 30. Findings: Totally, 185,077, 95,228, and 230,995 participants were included in cooking-, heating-, and smoking-related analyses, respectively. During a median follow-up of approximately 12.1 years, 12,725, 7,531, and 18,878 deaths were recorded in the respective analysis. Compared with clean fuel users who reported cooking with ventilation, participants who used solid fuels with ventilation and without ventilation had a difference in LE (95% confidence interval [CI]) at age 30 of −1.72 (−2.88, −0.57) and −2.62 (−4.16, −1.05) years for men and −1.33 (−1.85, −0.81) and −1.35 (−2.02, −0.67) years for women, respectively. The difference in LE (95% CI) for heating was −2.23 (−3.51, −0.95) years for men and −1.28 (−2.08, −0.48) years for women. In rural men, the LE reduction (95% CI) related to solid fuel use for cooking (−2.55; −4.51, −0.58) or heating (−3.26; −6.09, 0.44) was more than that related to smoking (−1.71; −2.54, −0.89). Conversely, in urban men, the LE reduction (95% CI) related to smoking (−3.06; −3.56, −2.56) was more than that related to solid fuel use for cooking (−1.28; −2.61, 0.05) and heating (−1.90; −3.16, −0.65). Similar results were observed in women but with a smaller magnitude. Interpretation: In this Chinese population, the harm to LE from household use of solid fuels was greater than that from smoking in rural residents. Conversely, the negative impact of smoking was greater than solid fuel use in urban residents. Our findings highlight the complexity and diversity of the factors affecting LE in less-developed populations