Disposition effect, demographics and risk taking

Purpose – This study aims to investigate the association of demographic characteristics, market conditions and risk taking with the disposition effect using data on Brazilian individual investors. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses a unique data set with monthly data from June 2007 to February 2017 provided by one of the largest asset management firms in Brazil. This paper computes the proportion of gains realized and the proportion of losses realized to see if investors incur the disposition effect. This paper then performs logistic regressions to verify the association between investors’ disposition effects and demographic and portfolio characteristics. This paper analyses the prevalence of cognitive biases depending on market conditions (bull or bear markets) and include regressions by asset class as robustness checks. Findings – This paper finds evidence that risk averse investors are more prone to the disposition effect, male subjects are less prone to this cognitive bias and age is not associated with the disposition effect. This paper observes that the tendency to incur the disposition effect decreases during bull markets but increases during bear markets. Also, this paper finds that sophisticated investors are more prone to selling winning assets and holding on to losses. Research limitations/implications – First, paper gains and losses are based on the highest and lowest prices of the month and not on the price at the moment the sale occurred. Second, this paper had access only to end-of-month information, not to actual daily trading records. Third, because the data set relates to individual investors who trade investment funds, this paper cannot determine whether firm size is associated with the disposition effect. Fourth, age may not necessarily be a proxy for investor experience, so one should interpretthe lack of significance for age in terms of generational differences. Practical implications – This paper demonstrates that the disposition effect is prevalent even among wealthier and more educated investors with delegated asset classes. This paper also presents evidence on the association between demographic characteristics and cognitive biases considering a liquidity-constrained, highly volatile and developing market. Social implications – This paper demonstrates that gender is an important characteristic to understand cognitive biases and that investor sophistication may not necessarily be an attenuation factor for the disposition effect in a liquidity-constrained market. Originality/value – This is the first study to analyse the role of demographic characteristics and risk taking to explain the disposition effect using real information at the individual level about Brazilian investors. It is also the first to analyse the intensity of cognitive biases during bull and bear markets in the Brazilian economy. &nbsp

The Relationship between Market Sentiment Index and Stock Rates of Return: a Panel Data Analysis

This article analyzes the relationship between market sentiment and future stock rates of return. We used amethodology based on principal component analysis to create a sentiment index for the Brazilian market withdata from 1999 to 2008. The sample consisted of companies listed on BM&FBOVESPA which were groupedinto quintiles, each representing a portfolio, according to the magnitude of the following characteristics: marketvalue, total annualized risk and listing time on BM&FBOVESPA. Next, we calculated the average return of eachportfolio for every quarter. The data for the first and last quintiles were analyzed via two-factor ANOVA, usingsentiment index of the previous period (positive or negative) as the main factor and each characteristic ascontrolling factors. Finally, the sentiment index was included in a panel data pricing model. The results indicatea significant and negative relationship between the market sentiment index and the future rates of return. Thesefindings suggest the existence of a reversion pattern in stock returns, meaning that after a positive sentimentperiod, the impact on subsequent stock returns is negative, and vice-versa

PERFORMANCE OF FIXED INCOME FUNDS IN BRAZIL: MARKET-TIMING AND STYLE ANALYSIS

This study investigates whether managers of Fixed Income Brazilian funds exhibit market-timing abilities and what are the main components driving a fund’s return. Measuring timing ability of Fixed Income funds’ managers has a lot to do with their ability to anticipate interest rate movements. We also conduct a style analysis in order to check the main drives of return of these funds. We collected information on 338 Brazilian FI funds, and data goes from January 2003 to April 2016. Our results indicate that managers of FI funds in Brazil do not exhibit market-timing abilities, which is, they consistently underperform the market. Style analysis demonstrates that funds are well classified. We contribute to the literature by providing evidence on market timing abilities of Fixed Income fund managers.

Crítica à teoria dos stakeholders como função-objetivo corporativa

At the core of the issue of management models on corporate governance are some basic questions such as these that must be addressed. What is the corporate-function? Which are the criteria for decision-making and performance evaluation? Literature cites two corporate objective-functions which stand out, one which maximizes shareholder value and the other which balances the interests of stakeholders. A critical approach to the stakeholder theory is made including the origin, concepts, advantages and disadvantages in a comparison to that of the shareholders. The conceptual deficiencies of the stakeholder theory point to the maximization of the shareholder value as a more robust objective-function for achieving a higher level of social welfare, maximization of corporate efficiency and productivity while providing a better evaluation of managers.No cerne das discussões sobre a concepção de modelos de gestão e de governança corporativa estão questões básicas que precisam ser respondidas por qualquer corporação, tais como: qual a função da empresa? Quais devem ser os critérios para a tomada de decisão e a avaliação de desempenho? Duas funções-objetivo da corporação destacam-se na literatura de Administração de empresas: a teoria da maximização da riqueza dos acionistas e a teoria de equilíbrio dos interesses dos públicos afetados pela companhia (stakeholders). O presente trabalho aborda de maneira crítica a teoria dos stakeholders, apresentando suas origens, conceitos, aspectos positivos e negativos e comparando-a com a teoria da maximização da riqueza dos acionistas. A análise expõe fragilidades conceituais da teoria dos stakeholders, que levam à consideração da teoria da maximização da riqueza dos acionistas como a função-objetivo da corporação mais robusta conceitualmente para o alcance de maior bem-estar social, a maximização da produtividade e eficiência da companhia e uma melhor avaliação do desempenho dos administradores

Finanças comportamentais: uma introdução

A subject often debated in Finance is the validity of assumptions regarding traditional theories, especially in relation to the rationality of economic agents. Studies endeavoring to improve theoretical models have incorporated behavioral aspects previously disregarded thereby creating the new and promising field of behavioral finance. The remarkable growth of this unorthodox approach has been spurred by attempts to explain phenomena in the financial markets which are incompatible with traditional model forecasts. A brief introduction to the concepts of behavioral finance was presented with comments on pioneer applications that incorporated two frequent examples of cognitive biases, namely optimism and excessive confidence, for the purpose of building a new theoretical paradigm.Dentre as principais questões que vêm sendo debatidas em Finanças está a validade das premissas assumidas por suas teorias mais tradicionais, em particular a da racionalidade dos agentes econômicos. Nesse contexto, surgiram diversos trabalhos com o objetivo de aprimorar os modelos teóricos dominantes, incorporando aspectos comportamentais antes desconsiderados. Essas linhas de pesquisa deram origem a um novo e promissor campo de estudo denominado Finanças Comportamentais. O notável crescimento dessa abordagem não ortodoxa tem sido motivado, em especial, pela tentativa de explicação satisfatória de uma gama de fenômenos regularmente observados nos mercados financeiros e incompatíveis com as predições dos modelos tradicionais. Este ensaio apresenta uma introdução sucinta aos conceitos fundamentais da área de Finanças Comportamentais e comenta duas aplicações pioneiras que incorporam dois dos vieses cognitivos mais bem documentados - otimismo e confiança excessiva

Overreaction in the Brazilian Stock Market from 1995 until 2003

Esta dissertação analisa a existência de oportunidades de obtenção de ganhos econômicos através da adoção de estratégias de investimento que explorem o viés de sobre-reação de preços no mercado de ações brasileiro no período de 1995 a 1998. De forma complementar, busca identificar se os resultados são persistentes a alterações do indicador de retorno utilizado, período de tempo da análise, método de acumulação de retornos e número de ativos da carteira. Os indicadores de retorno utilizados foram: retorno total, excesso de retorno de mercado e retorno ajustado ao risco, para períodos mensais, trimestrais, semestrais, anuais e bianuais. Utilizou-se a acumulação aritmética e composta, bem como diferentes quantidades de ações (fixas de 5 e 10 ações e variável de 5% e 10% da carteira total). Os instrumentos utilizados para os testes estatísticos de associação foram o teste de diferença de médias para duas amostras independentes, o teste de proporções, além do coeficiente de correlação de Spearman. A amostra compreendeu todas as ações existentes no período, cujos dados estavam disponíveis no banco de dados Economática. Os resultados demonstraram que existe a oportunidade de se obter ganhos no curto prazo, pois a estratégia contrária de investimento apresentou ganhos estatisticamente significantes para os períodos mensal e trimestral.This dissertation analyzes the possibility of obtaining gains by adopting contrarian investments policy in the Brazilian Stock Market during the period from 1995 to 2003, in order to prove the existence of the overreaction bias in the investors? behavior. As a complementary objective, it was explored whether the strategy performance depends upon the measure employed to address performance, time period, cumulating returns method or number of securities in the portfolios. The research has involved different measures of performance: total return, market excess return and risk-adjusted return for different time horizons: monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, annually and biannually. It was computed two methods for cumulating returns, arithmetic and buy-and-hold, and also various quantitites of securities in each portfolio. The statistical procedures used to measure the degree of association were: difference of sample means test, proportions test and Spearman?s correlation coefficients. The sample included all stocks listed in Bovespa, with available data in the Economática database. Results show that there is an opportunity to gain in the short-time horizon, once the contrarian investment strategy presented statistically significant gains for monthly and quarterly periods

The relationship between market sentiment index and stock returns: a panel data analysis

Na teoria clássica de finanças, o sentimento do investidor não é considerado um fator importante sobre os preços das ações. Embora a existência do sentimento do investidor não seja negada, as teorias normalmente partem do princípio de que, em mercados financeiros competitivos, comportamentos de agentes quase-racionais são rapidamente eliminados. Esta tese tem o objetivo de investigar a relação entre o sentimento de mercado e as taxas de retorno futuras das ações. É proposta uma metodologia para a criação de um índice de sentimento específico para o mercado brasileiro com uso da análise de componentes principais. Com o objetivo de verificar a relação deste índice de sentimento com as taxas de retorno das ações, foi estimado um modelo de apreçamento em que esta variável foi incluída, para o período de 1999 a 2008. A amostra foi composta por empresas não-financeiras com ações listadas na BOVESPA, com uma negociabilidade mínima que garantisse observações suficientes e representativas para validar os resultados encontrados na pesquisa. O modelo de apreçamento foi estimado por GMM, levando em consideração o índice de sentimento de mercado, o risco sistêmico das empresas (medido pelo beta) e fatores como tamanho, índice market-to-book, alavancagem, momentum e crescimento da receita. Empregaram-se diferentes procedimentos para estimar os parâmetros dos modelos empíricos formulados, com o propósito de isolar influências espúrias, ocasionadas pela presença de heterogeneidade não-observada, pela existência de eventuais observações extremas ou mesmo pela possível endogeneidade dos regressores. Os resultados deste estudo empírico sugerem que o sentimento é um fator relevante no apreçamento das ações no mercado brasileiro. A relação negativa e significante entre o índice de sentimento e as taxas de retorno, encontrada consistentemente em diferentes modelos, indica um padrão de reversão nas taxas de retornos, ou seja, após um período de sentimento positivo, o impacto nas taxas de retorno no período seguinte é negativo, e vice-versa.In classical finance theory investor sentiment is not considered an important factor in asset pricing. Although the existence of investor sentiment is not denied, theories assume that in competitive markets quasi-rational behavior is quickly offset by rational agents. The main goal of this thesis is to investigate the relationship between investor sentiment and future stock return rates. It is proposed a methodology to create a sentiment index specifically to the Brazilian market using principal components analysis. In order to analyze the relationship between this sentiment index and the future stock returns, it was estimated a pricing model including this variable for the period comprehending 1999 to 2008. Considering a negotiability restriction to assure representative and sufficient observations to validate a pricing model, the sample consisted of non-financial firms listed at BOVESPA. The pricing model was estimated by GMM considering the sentiment index, systematic risk (market beta) and factors as firm size, market-to-book ratio, leverage and return predictability measured by momentum or income growth. Different estimation procedures were applied to find empirical models coefficients which are less affected by spurious influence such as unobserved heterogeneity, outliers or possible regressors endogeneity. Results of the empirical study suggest that sentiment is a relevant factor in Brazilian asset pricing models. A negative and statistically significant relationship between the sentiment index and stock returns was consistently found in different models specifications. These findings suggest the existence of a reversion pattern in stock returns, meaning that after a positive sentiment period, the impact on subsequent stock returns is negative and vice-versa

Overreaction in the Brazilian Stock Market from 1995 until 2003

Esta dissertação analisa a existência de oportunidades de obtenção de ganhos econômicos através da adoção de estratégias de investimento que explorem o viés de sobre-reação de preços no mercado de ações brasileiro no período de 1995 a 1998. De forma complementar, busca identificar se os resultados são persistentes a alterações do indicador de retorno utilizado, período de tempo da análise, método de acumulação de retornos e número de ativos da carteira. Os indicadores de retorno utilizados foram: retorno total, excesso de retorno de mercado e retorno ajustado ao risco, para períodos mensais, trimestrais, semestrais, anuais e bianuais. Utilizou-se a acumulação aritmética e composta, bem como diferentes quantidades de ações (fixas de 5 e 10 ações e variável de 5% e 10% da carteira total). Os instrumentos utilizados para os testes estatísticos de associação foram o teste de diferença de médias para duas amostras independentes, o teste de proporções, além do coeficiente de correlação de Spearman. A amostra compreendeu todas as ações existentes no período, cujos dados estavam disponíveis no banco de dados Economática. Os resultados demonstraram que existe a oportunidade de se obter ganhos no curto prazo, pois a estratégia contrária de investimento apresentou ganhos estatisticamente significantes para os períodos mensal e trimestral.This dissertation analyzes the possibility of obtaining gains by adopting contrarian investments policy in the Brazilian Stock Market during the period from 1995 to 2003, in order to prove the existence of the overreaction bias in the investors? behavior. As a complementary objective, it was explored whether the strategy performance depends upon the measure employed to address performance, time period, cumulating returns method or number of securities in the portfolios. The research has involved different measures of performance: total return, market excess return and risk-adjusted return for different time horizons: monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, annually and biannually. It was computed two methods for cumulating returns, arithmetic and buy-and-hold, and also various quantitites of securities in each portfolio. The statistical procedures used to measure the degree of association were: difference of sample means test, proportions test and Spearman?s correlation coefficients. The sample included all stocks listed in Bovespa, with available data in the Economática database. Results show that there is an opportunity to gain in the short-time horizon, once the contrarian investment strategy presented statistically significant gains for monthly and quarterly periods

Self-assessment Accuracy, Overconfidence and Student Performance

We have analyzed results of the Brazilian National Student Performance exam, applied by the Ministry of Education, to verify overconfidence in students. Looking at 549,487 student-level observations, we estimated an overconfidence score, comparing the perceived performance with the actual grade in two different parts of the exam. Ordered logit models suggest that overconfidence in Brazilian students is positively correlated with income and that overconfident students took less time to complete the exam. Contrary to previous studies conducted in other countries, male students presented lower overconfidence in our sample. Moreover, performance was inversely related to the overconfidence score, indicating that students with better performance “know more about what they do not know”, as already widely discussed in the education literature