From Discrete to Continuous: Modeling Volatility of the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market with GARCH and COGARCH

The objective of this paper is to model the volatility of Istanbul Stock Exchange market, ISE100 Index by ARMA and GARCH models and then take a step further into the analysis from discrete modeling to continuous modeling. Through applying unit root and stationary tests on the log return of the index, we found that log return of ISE100 data is stationary. Best candidate model chosen was found to be AR(1)~GARCH(1,1) by AIC and BIC criteria. Then using the parameters from the discrete model, COGARCH(1,1) was applied as a continuous model

From Discrete to Continuous: Modeling Volatility of the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market with GARCH and COGARCH

The objective of this paper is to model the volatility of Istanbul Stock Exchange market, ISE100 Index by ARMA and GARCH models and then take a step further into the analysis from discrete modeling to continuous modeling. Through applying unit root and stationary tests on the log return of the index, we found that log return of ISE100 data is stationary. Best candidate model chosen was found to be AR(1)~GARCH(1,1) by AIC and BIC criteria. Then using the parameters from the discrete model, COGARCH(1,1) was applied as a continuous model.ISE100,IMKB100,GARCH Modeling,COGARCH Modeling,discrete modeling,continuous modeling

A Vector Auto-Regressıve (VAR) Model for the Turkish Financial Markets

In this paper, we develop a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of the Turkish financial markets for the period of June 15 2006 – June 15 2010 and forecasts ISE100 index, TRY/USD exchange rate, and short-term interest rates. The out-of-sample forecast performance of the VAR model is compared with the results from the univariate models. Moreover, the dynamics of the financial markets are analyzed through Granger causality and impulse response analysis.multivariate financial time series; vector auto-regressive (VAR) model; impulse response analysis; Granger causality

Effects of Direct Foreign Investment On Economic Development: A Study of the Turkish Experience, 1980-1995

Economic

EFFECTS OF THE GEZI PARK MOVEMENT ON RENEWAL OF THE DEMOCRATIZATION DEBATE IN TURKEY

*This is an English version of an original article:    Yavuz Yildirim, "Los Efectos Del Movimiento Del Parque Gezi En La Renovacion Del Debate Sobre La Democratizacion En Turquia" in: Un Retrato De La Turquia Contemporanea (eds. Federico Donelli, Alessia Chiriatti, Manuel Férez), Mexico: Universidad Anahuac Mexico, 2016, pp. 299-310.The text presents the history of attempts at democratization of the political system in Turkey, where despite the nominal presence of democratic institutions, changes traditionally have come from the top. Following a brief presentation of the unsuccessful civil movements from the 1970s onwards, it focuses on the 2010s transition in approaches to building democratic culture, and in particular on the Gezi Park resistance, where a relatively minor local issue sparked a country-wide citizens’ protest against the conservative democracy of the ruling AK Party. The event is shown as an entirely new type of protest, a spontaneous civil movement with horizontal structure, inspired by the Occupy movements, and an expression of the new generation’s approach to politics. It also gave rise to a movement which contributed to rethinking the Turkish democratization process by breaking with the established thinking with a bottom-to-top approach

From Discrete to Continuous: Modeling Volatility of the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market with GARCH and COGARCH

The objective of this paper is to model the volatility of Istanbul Stock Exchange market, ISE100 Index by ARMA and GARCH models and then take a step further into the analysis from discrete modeling to continuous modeling. Through applying unit root and stationary tests on the log return of the index, we found that log return of ISE100 data is stationary. Best candidate model chosen was found to be AR(1)~GARCH(1,1) by AIC and BIC criteria. Then using the parameters from the discrete model, COGARCH(1,1) was applied as a continuous model

A Vector Auto-Regressıve (VAR) Model for the Turkish Financial Markets

In this paper, we develop a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of the Turkish financial markets for the period of June 15 2006 – June 15 2010 and forecasts ISE100 index, TRY/USD exchange rate, and short-term interest rates. The out-of-sample forecast performance of the VAR model is compared with the results from the univariate models. Moreover, the dynamics of the financial markets are analyzed through Granger causality and impulse response analysis

A Vector Auto-Regressıve (VAR) Model for the Turkish Financial Markets

In this paper, we develop a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of the Turkish financial markets for the period of June 15 2006 – June 15 2010 and forecasts ISE100 index, TRY/USD exchange rate, and short-term interest rates. The out-of-sample forecast performance of the VAR model is compared with the results from the univariate models. Moreover, the dynamics of the financial markets are analyzed through Granger causality and impulse response analysis

High mobility group box protein-1 (HMGB-1) as a new diagnostic marker in patients with acute appendicitis

<p/> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this prospective study was therefore to evaluate the diagnostic value of preoperative serum High Mobility Group Box Protein-1 (HMGB-1) levels in patients with Acute Appendicitis (AA) who show normal white blood cell count (WBC) counts.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Our study was carried out from October 2010 through November 2010 and included 20 healthy control group participants and 60 patients who presented at the emergency department of Erzurum Training and Research Hospital in Turkey with acute abdominal pain complaints, who were pathologically diagnosed with AA after laparotomy, and who agreed to participate in the study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 60 patients who underwent appendectomies, 36 were male and 24 were female, and of the healthy group, 12 were male and 8 female. The age averages of the patients in Groups 1, 2 and 3 were, respectively, 31.3+15.4, 34.0+16.3 and 31.0+13.1 years. The WBC averages of Groups 1, 2 and 3 were, respectively, 7.41+2.02 (x10⁹/L), 15.71+2.85 (x10⁹/L) and 8.51+1.84 (x10⁹/L). The HMGB-1 levels for Groups 1 (healthy persons), 2 (AA patients with high WBC counts ) and 3 (AA patients with normal WBC counts) were, respectively, 21.71 ± 11.36, 37.28+13.37 and 36.5 ± 17.73 ng/ml. The average HMGB-1 level of the patients with AA was 36.92 ± 15.43 ng/ml while the average HMGB-1 value of the healthy group was 21.71 ± 11.36 ng/ml.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The significantly higher levels of HMGB-1 in AA patients compared to healthy persons infer that HMGB-1 might be useful in the diagnosis of AA. Use of HMGB-1, especially in patients with normal WBC counts, will reduce the number of unnecessary explorations.</p