Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Risk factors for Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) death in a population cohort study from the Western Cape province, South Africa

Risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) death in sub-Saharan Africa and the effects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis on COVID-19 outcomes are unknown. We conducted a population cohort study using linked data from adults attending public-sector health facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa. We used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, location, and comorbidities, to examine the associations between HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19 death from 1 March to 9 June 2020 among (1) public-sector “active patients” (≥1 visit in the 3 years before March 2020); (2) laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 cases; and (3) hospitalized COVID-19 cases. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for COVID-19, comparing adults living with and without HIV using modeled population estimates.Among 3 460 932 patients (16% living with HIV), 22 308 were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 625 died. COVID19 death was associated with male sex, increasing age, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. HIV was associated with COVID-19 mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.70–2.70), with similar risks across strata of viral loads and immunosuppression. Current and previous diagnoses of tuberculosis were associated with COVID-19 death (aHR, 2.70 [95% CI, 1.81–4.04] and 1.51 [95% CI, 1.18–1.93], respectively). The SMR for COVID-19 death associated with HIV was 2.39 (95% CI, 1.96–2.86); population attributable fraction 8.5% (95% CI, 6.1–11.1)

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Information access and evaluation skills of secondary school students in Ghana

Information Literacy (IL) is a necessary skill needed by students to survive in the dynamic information environment of the 21st century. This study explored the IL skills of secondary school students in Ghana with specific focus on students’ abilities in finding and evaluating information. The study was conducted in two “first-class” secondary schools in the Kumasi Metropolis of the Ashanti Region of Ghana; Opoku Ware Senior High School and Yaa Asantewaa Girls’ Senior High School. A survey instrument was developed to assess the skills of the students in that regard. Questionnaires were distributed to an overall sample size of one hundred and seventy (170) students in the two schools. In addition, four teaching staff of the schools were also interviewed to corroborate the findings from the students. The findings revealed that students in the two schools lack the ability to effectively access information for their academic work. The study also discovered that students in the participating schools lack the basic skills to differentiate good information from bad ones. The study recommends, among others, the integration of IL into the secondary school curriculum in Ghana; and collaboration between librarians, teaching staff and the Ghana Education Service to promote IL among students to promote lifelong learning

Street foods in Accra, Ghana: how safe are they?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the microbial quality of foods sold on streets of Accra and factors predisposing to their contamination. METHODS: Structured questionnaires were used to collect data from 117 street vendors on their vital statistics, personal hygiene, food hygiene and knowledge of foodborne illness. Standard methods were used for the enumeration, isolation, and identification of bacteria. FINDINGS: Most vendors were educated and exhibited good hygiene behaviour. Diarrhoea was defined as the passage of > or = 3 stools per day) by 110 vendors (94.0%), but none associated diarrhoea with bloody stools; only 21 (17.9%) associated diarrhoea with germs. The surroundings of the vending sites were clean, but four sites (3.4%) were classified as very dirty. The cooking of food well in advance of consumption, exposure of food to flies, and working with food at ground level and by hand were likely risk factors for contamination. Examinations were made of 511 menu items, classified as breakfast/snack foods, main dishes, soups and sauces, and cold dishes. Mesophilic bacteria were detected in 356 foods (69.7%): 28 contained Bacillus cereus (5.5%), 163 contained Staphylococcus aureus (31.9%) and 172 contained Enterobacteriaceae (33.7%). The microbial quality of most of the foods was within the acceptable limits but samples of salads, macaroni, fufu, omo tuo and red pepper had unacceptable levels of contamination. Shigella sonnei and enteroaggregative Escherichia coli were isolated from macaroni, rice, and tomato stew, and Salmonella arizonae from light soup. CONCLUSION: Street foods can be sources of enteropathogens. Vendors should therefore receive education in food hygiene. Special attention should be given to the causes of diarrhoea, the transmission of diarrhoeal pathogens, the handling of equipment and cooked food, hand-washing practices and environmental hygiene

Street foods in Accra, Ghana: how safe are they?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the microbial quality of foods sold on streets of Accra and factors predisposing to their contamination. METHODS: Structured questionnaires were used to collect data from 117 street vendors on their vital statistics, personal hygiene, food hygiene and knowledge of foodborne illness. Standard methods were used for the enumeration, isolation, and identification of bacteria. FINDINGS: Most vendors were educated and exhibited good hygiene behaviour. Diarrhoea was defined as the passage of > or =3 stools per day) by 110 vendors (94.0%), but none associated diarrhoea with bloody stools; only 21 (17.9%) associated diarrhoea with germs. The surroundings of the vending sites were clean, but four sites (3.4%) were classified as very dirty. The cooking of food well in advance of consumption, exposure of food to flies, and working with food at ground level and by hand were likely risk factors for contamination. Examinations were made of 511 menu items, classified as breakfast/snack foods, main dishes, soups and sauces, and cold dishes. Mesophilic bacteria were detected in 356 foods (69.7%): 28 contained Bacillus cereus (5.5%), 163 contained Staphylococcus aureus (31.9%) and 172 contained Enterobacteriaceae (33.7%). The microbial quality of most of the foods was within the acceptable limits but samples of salads, macaroni, fufu, omo tuo and red pepper had unacceptable levels of contamination. Shigella sonnei and enteroaggregative Escherichia coli were isolated from macaroni, rice, and tomato stew, and Salmonella arizonae from light soup. CONCLUSION: Street foods can be sources of enteropathogens. Vendors should therefore receive education in food hygiene. Special attention should be given to the causes of diarrhoea, the transmission of diarrhoeal pathogens, the handling of equipment and cooked food, hand-washing practices and environmental hygiene

Street foods in Accra, Ghana: how safe are they?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the microbial quality of foods sold on streets of Accra and factors predisposing to their contamination. METHODS: Structured questionnaires were used to collect data from 117 street vendors on their vital statistics, personal hygiene, food hygiene and knowledge of foodborne illness. Standard methods were used for the enumeration, isolation, and identification of bacteria. FINDINGS: Most vendors were educated and exhibited good hygiene behaviour. Diarrhoea was defined as the passage of > or = 3 stools per day) by 110 vendors (94.0%), but none associated diarrhoea with bloody stools; only 21 (17.9%) associated diarrhoea with germs. The surroundings of the vending sites were clean, but four sites (3.4%) were classified as very dirty. The cooking of food well in advance of consumption, exposure of food to flies, and working with food at ground level and by hand were likely risk factors for contamination. Examinations were made of 511 menu items, classified as breakfast/snack foods, main dishes, soups and sauces, and cold dishes. Mesophilic bacteria were detected in 356 foods (69.7%): 28 contained Bacillus cereus (5.5%), 163 contained Staphylococcus aureus (31.9%) and 172 contained Enterobacteriaceae (33.7%). The microbial quality of most of the foods was within the acceptable limits but samples of salads, macaroni, fufu, omo tuo and red pepper had unacceptable levels of contamination. Shigella sonnei and enteroaggregative Escherichia coli were isolated from macaroni, rice, and tomato stew, and Salmonella arizonae from light soup. CONCLUSION: Street foods can be sources of enteropathogens. Vendors should therefore receive education in food hygiene. Special attention should be given to the causes of diarrhoea, the transmission of diarrhoeal pathogens, the handling of equipment and cooked food, hand-washing practices and environmental hygiene

Crystallization of a Metastable Solvate and Impact of the Isolation Method on the Material Properties of the Anhydrous Product

We report the crystallization of a metastable small-molecule solvate and the effect of the isolation method on the physical and material properties of the resulting anhydrous material. The anhydrous crystalline products obtained from two different isolation routes using either a temperature-driven form change or a solvent-wash-mediated form change were analyzed by a suite of material-sparing characterization methods probing both physical form and material properties such as particle size distribution and powder flow behavior. The temperature-driven desolvation method was found to be time-consuming and undesirable. A relatively rapid desolvation approach was obtained using an ethyl acetate wash-mediated process. However, this method leads to powder with a broader particle size distribution, poorer flowability, higher interparticulate friction, and lower bulk density compared with the powder obtained by the temperature-driven desolvation process. The direct impact of the method of isolation on the material properties of the drug substance highlights the importance of not only understanding the crystallization process and form landscape but also the ability to implement systematic characterization to identify key powder properties of drug candidates early in the drug development process

Molecular Characterization of Circulating Yellow Fever Viruses from Outbreak in Ghana, 2021–2022

Yellow fever virus, transmitted by infected Aedes spp. mosquitoes, causes an acute viral hemorrhagic disease. During October 2021–February 2022, a yellow fever outbreak in some communities in Ghana resulted in 70 confirmed cases with 35 deaths (case-fatality rate 50%). The outbreak started in a predominantly unvaccinated nomadic community in the Savannah region, from which 65% of the cases came. The molecular amplification methods we used for diagnosis produced full-length DNA sequences from 3 confirmed cases. Phylogenetic analysis characterized the 3 sequences within West Africa genotype II; strains shared a close homology with sequences from Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal. We deployed more sensitive advanced molecular diagnostic techniques, which enabled earlier detection, helped control spread, and improved case management. We urge increased efforts from health authorities to vaccinate vulnerable groups in difficult-to-access areas and to educate the population about potential risks for yellow fever infections