8 research outputs found
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Finescale Evaluation of Drought in a Tropical Setting: Case Study in Sri Lanka
In regions of climatic heterogeneity, finescale assessment of drought risk is needed for policy making and drought management, mitigation, and adaptation. The relationship between drought relief payments (a proxy for drought risk) and meteorological drought indicators is examined through a retrospective analysis for Sri Lanka (1960–2000) based on records of district-level drought relief payments and a dense network of 284 rainfall stations. The standardized precipitation index and a percent-of-annual-average index for rainfall accumulated over 3, 6, 9, and 12 months were used, gridded to a spatial resolution of 10 km. An encouraging correspondence was identified between the spatial distribution of meteorological drought occurrence and historical drought relief payments at the district scale. Time series of drought indices averaged roughly over the four main climatic zones of Sri Lanka showed statistically significant (p < 0.01) relationships with the occurrence of drought relief. The 9-month cumulative drought index provided the strongest relationships overall, although 6- and 12-month indicators provided generally similar results. Some cases of appreciable drought without corresponding relief payments could be attributed to fiscal pressures, as during the 1970s. Statistically significant relationships between drought indicators and relief payments point to the potential utility of meteorological drought assessments for disaster risk management. In addition, the study provides an empirical approach to testing which meteorological drought indicators bear a statistically significant relationship to drought relief across a wide range of tropical climates
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Predictability of Sri Lankan rainfall based on ENSO
Investigating the year-round rainfall of Sri Lanka provides understanding into the South Asian monsoon system as it compliments studies on the Indian summer monsoon. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a primary mode of climate variability of this area. Here, the predictability of Sri Lanka rainfall based on ENSO is quantified based on composite analysis, correlations and contingency tables. The rainfall is modestly predictable based on ENSO during January-March, July-August and October-December. El Niño typically leads to wetter conditions during October to December and drier conditions during January to March and July to August on average. The correlations of ENSO indices with rainfall are statistically significant for October to December, January to March and July to August and an analysis based on contingency tables shows modest predictability. The use of ENSO indices derived from the central Pacific sea surfaces improves the predictability from January to June. The predictability in the mountain regions is diminished when garnering orographic rainfall. The predictability in the east is diminished during the cyclone season. The predictability based on ENSO for October to December rainfall is robust on a decadal scale while the predictability of January to March and July to August rainfall has acquired significance in recent decades. An ENSO-based scheme that is adapted to each season and region, and takes account of decadal variations can thus provide skillful rainfall predictions
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Fine Scale Natural Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Identification Informed by Climate
Although many natural disasters have hydro-meteorological antecedents, little advantage has been taken of the availability of weather and climate data, advanced diagnostics and seasonal predictions for disaster risk management. In this study, methodologies for use of hydro-meteorological data in hazard risk assessment are presented laying the ground work for future dynamic hazard predictions. A high-resolution assessment of natural hazards, vulnerability to hazards and of multihazard disaster risk has been carried out for Sri Lanka. Drought, flood, cyclone and landslide hazards, and vulnerability were identified using data from Sri Lankan government agencies. Drought and flood prone areas were mapped using rainfall data that was gridded at a resolution of 10-km. Cyclone and landslide hazardousness were mapped based on long-term historical incidence data. Indices for regional industrial development, infrastructure development and agricultural production were estimated based on proxies. An assessment of regional food insecurity from the World Food Programme was used in the analysis. Records of emergency relief were used in estimating a spatial proxy for disaster risk. A multi-hazardousness map was developed for Sri Lanka. The hazardousness estimates for drought, floods, cyclones, landslides were weighted for their associated disaster risk with proxies for economic losses to provide a risk map or a hotspots map. Our principal findings are summarized below. Useful hazard and vulnerability analysis can be carried out with the type of data that is available in-country. The hazardousness estimates for droughts, floods, cyclones and landslides show marked spatial variability. Vulnerability shows marked spatial variability as well. Thus, the resolution of analysis needs to match the resolution of spatial variations in relief, climate and other features. The higher resolution information is needed in planning and action for disaster management. Multi-hazard analysis brought out regions of high risk in Sri Lanka such as the Kegalle and Ratnapura Districts in the South West and Ampara, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Mullaitivu and Killinochchi districts in the North-East and the districts of Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Ampara and Matale that contain some of the sharpest hill slopes of the central mountain massifs. There is a distinct seasonality to risks posed by drought, floods, landslides and cyclones. Whereas the Eastern slopes regions have hotspots during the boreal fall and early winter, the Western slopes regions is risk prone in the summer and the early fall. Thus attention is warranted not only on Hot-Spots but also on "Hot-Seasons." Climate data was useful in estimating hazardousness in the case of droughts, floods and cyclones and for estimating flood and landslide risk. The methodologies presented here for hazard analysis of floods and droughts present an explicit link between climate and hazard. The results from this study coupled with the high-resolution seasonal climate prediction techniques developed in a related study point the way to using historical, current and predictive climate information to inform disaster management policy, and early warning systems. Climate, environmental and social change such as deforestation, urbanization and war affect the hazardousness and vulnerability. It is more difficult to quantify such changes rather than the baseline conditions. Our analysis was carried out for a period since 1960 that included a period of civil war after 1983. This war affected the North-East of the island in particular. To put things in context, while natural disasters accounted for 1,483 fatalities in this period, the civil wars accounted for over 65,000. Wars and conflict poses complications for hazard and vulnerability analysis. Yet, the vulnerabilities created by the war make such efforts to reduce disaster risks all the more important. Technical details of our work have been included in a case study published by the World Bank and in journals listed in the outputs
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Impact assessment and adaptation to climate change of plantations in Sri Lanka
This report documents the work undertaken by the IRI, FECT, NRMS and University of
Peradeniya as part of the overall project. Separate reports were prepared by the Tea
Research Institute, Coconut Research Institute and the Department of Meteorology in Sri
Lanka. The work at IRI, FECT and NRMS has proceeded satisfactorily. The work was in
the domain of climate and climate change, crop-climate impact analysis and contributions
to synthesis. We have contributed significantly in terms of research output and in
capacity building, which were the goals of the AIACC project
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Climate Influences on Human-Elephant Conflict in Sri Lanka
Contemporary ecological research supports focus on the preservation of habitats and the preservation of keystone species that are critical to the ecological character of the habitats. Conservation of endangered species works best with attention not only to the species but also to the needs of the people who may be adjacent to or bordering habitats. Southern Sri Lanka fall into the category of globally important biodiversity hotspots. The biggest land animal, the elephant is the keystone species in Sri Lanka outside the highlands. The population of elephants in Sri Lanka is estimated to be between 3000 and 4,000; yet there has been an alarming loss of 1000 elephants during from 1990-2003. Given its island setting and rich hydro-climatic data, Sri Lanka provides a unique opportunity to study the dynamics leading to species loss. Our work in this project was initially motivated by the practical concerns of our project partners in the Mahaweli River Basin in Sri Lanka where the human-elephant conflict was a major problem. The question that arose was: "Are the climate, water availability and river basin management practices contributing to conflict between elephants and people?" If this was indeed the case, then, could one adaptively manage the river basin, organize agricultural practices, and prioritize conflict mitigation options such as separate habitat enrichment programs? Moreover, could we propose various adaptive measures in changes if one could monitor the climate and environmental conditions and take advantage of seasonal climate predictions
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Analysis of impacts of climate variability on malaria transmission in Sri Lanka and the development of an early warning system
This project set goals of bringing together a multi-disciplinary, multi-national and multi-institutional team to address the relationship between climate and malaria in aggregate terms for Sri Lanka, and in detail for the Uva Province to help develop early warning systems. The project was undertaken in partnership with Sri Lanka’s Anti-Malaria Campaign (AMC) and the Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology, Sri Lanka (FECT). Overall, we have accomplished the projected outcomes in spite of several setbacks
Epochal changes in the association between malaria epidemics and El Niño in Sri Lanka
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens
Climate Change Impacts on Rice Farming Systems in Northwestern Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka has achieved tremendous progress since 1950 in crop production and food availability. Yields grew at an impressive rate until leveling off in the mid-eighties. Sri Lanka's population is anticipated to grow in the coming decades, creating an ever-greater demand for food security on the household, sub-district, regional, and national scales.The agricultural sector in Sri Lanka is vulnerable to climate shocks. An unusual succession of droughts and floods from 2008 to 2014 has led to both booms and busts in agricultural production, which were reflected in food prices. In both instances, the majority of farmers and consumers were adversely affected.At present the rice-farming systems are under stress due to inadequate returns for the farmers and difficulty in coping with shocks due to climate, pests, and diseases, and prices for produce. There are government price-support mechanisms, fertilizer-subsidy schemes, and crop insurance schemes, but the levels of the supports are modest and often do not effectively reach the farmers