Statistical modelling and forecasting of outstanding liabilities in non-life insurance

Non-life insurance companies need to build reserves to meet their claims liability cash flows. They often work with aggregated data. Recently it has been suggested that better statistical properties can be obtained when more aggregated data is available for the statistical analysis than just the classical aggregated payments. When also the aggregated number of claims is available one can define a full statistical model of the nature of the number of claims, their delay until payment and the nature of these payments. In this paper we provide a new development in this direction by entering yet another set of aggregated data, namely the number of payments and when they occurred. A new element of our statistical analysis is that we are able to incorporate inflationary trends of payments in a direct and explicit way. Our new method is illustrated on a real life data set and the conclusion are informative and useful

Sex Does Not Affect Survival: A Propensity Score-Matched Comparison in a Homogenous Contemporary Radical Cystectomy Cohort.

OBJECTIVES To determine whether biological sex affects oncological outcome after extended pelvic lymph node dissection, radical cystectomy, and urinary diversion for muscle-invasive bladder cancer, and to identify risk factors impacting outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS We performed a single-center, retrospective observational cohort study with prospective data collection with a propensity score matched population. A total of 1165 consecutive patients from 2000 to 2020, (317 women and 848 men) scheduled for open extended pelvic lymph node dissection, radical cystectomy, and urinary diversion for urothelial bladder cancer were included in the final analysis. Overall Survival (OS), Cancer-Specific-Survival (CSS), and Recurrence-Free-survival (RFS) were assessed with multivariable weighted Cox regression analysis as well as with propensity score matched Cox-Regression. RESULTS No significant difference was found between sexes regarding OS (HR 1.18, [0.93-1.49], P = .16), CSS (HR 0.87, [0.64-1.18], P = .38), or RFS (HR 0.80, [0.59-1.07], P = .13). These results were confirmed after propensity score matching: female sex was not associated with inferior OS (HR 1.20, [0.91-1.60], P = .19), CSS (HR 1.01, [0.75-1.35], P = .97) or RFS (HR 0.98, [0.75-1.27], P = .86). CONCLUSIONS We did not find a significant difference in cancer-related outcomes or overall survival after extended pelvic lymph node dissection, open radical cystectomy, and urinary diversion for urothelial cancer between males and females even after adjustment with propensity matching score for multiple factors including oncological parameters, smoking status, and renal function

Clinical implementation of deep learning-based automated left breast simultaneous integrated boost radiotherapy treatment planning.

Automation in radiotherapy treatment planning aims to improve both the quality and the efficiency of the process. The aim of this study was to report on a clinical implementation of a Deep Learning (DL) auto-planning model for left-sided breast cancer. The DL model was developed for left-sided breast simultaneous integrated boost treatments under deep-inspiration breath-hold. Eighty manual dose distributions were revised and used for training. Ten patients were used for model validation. The model was then used to design 17 clinical auto-plans. Manual and auto-plans were scored on a list of clinical goals for both targets and organs-at-risk (OARs). For validation, predicted and mimicked dose (PD and MD, respectively) percent error (PE) was calculated with respect to manual dose. Clinical and validation cohorts were compared in terms of MD only. Median values of both PD and MD validation plans fulfilled the evaluation criteria. PE was < 1% for targets for both PD and MD. PD was well aligned to manual dose while MD left lung mean dose was significantly less (median:5.1 Gy vs 6.1 Gy). The left-anterior-descending artery maximum dose was found out of requirements (median values:+5.9 Gy and + 2.9 Gy, for PD and MD respectively) in three validation cases, while it was reduced for clinical cases (median:-1.9 Gy). No other clinically significant differences were observed between clinical and validation cohorts. Small OAR differences observed during the model validation were not found clinically relevant. The clinical implementation outcomes confirmed the robustness of the model

Parallel computation of radio listening rates

Obtaining the listening rates of radio stations in function of time is an important instrument for determining the impact of publicity. Since many radio stations are financed by publicity, the exact determination of radio listening rates is vital to their existence and to further development. Existing methods of determining radio listening rates are based on face to face interviews or telephonic interviews made with a sample population. These traditional methods however require the cooperation and compliance of the participants. In order to significantly improve the determination of radio listening rates, special watches were created which incorporate a custom integrated circuit sampling the ambient sound during a few seconds every minutes. Each watch accumulates these compressed sound samples during one full week. Watches are then sent to an evaluation center, where the sound samples are matched with the sound samples recorded from candidate radio stations. The present paper describes the processing steps necessary for computing the radio listening rates, and shows how this application was parallelized on a cluster of PCs using the CAP Computer-aided parallelization framework. Since the application must run in a production environment, the paper describes also the support provided for graceful degradation in case of transient or permanent failure of one of the system's components. The parallel sound matching server offers a linear speedup up to a large number of processing nodes thanks to the fact that disk access operations across the network are done in pipeline with computations

Site-specific protein modification using immobilized sortase in batch and continuous-flow systems

Transpeptidation catalyzed by ​sortase A allows the preparation of proteins that are site-specifically and homogeneously modified with a wide variety of functional groups, such as fluorophores, PEG moieties, lipids, glycans, bio-orthogonal reactive groups and affinity handles. This protocol describes immobilization of ​sortase A on a solid support (Sepharose beads). Immobilization of ​sortase A simplifies downstream purification of a protein of interest after labeling of its N or C terminus. Smaller batch and larger-scale continuous-flow reactions require only a limited amount of enzyme. The immobilized enzyme can be reused for multiple cycles of protein modification reactions. The described protocol also works with a Ca²⁺-independent variant of ​sortase A with increased catalytic activity. This heptamutant variant of ​sortase A (7M) was generated by combining previously published mutations, and this immobilized enzyme can be used for the modification of calcium-senstive substrates or in instances in which low temperatures are needed. Preparation of immobilized ​sortase A takes 1–2 d. Batch reactions take 3–12 h and flow reactions proceed at 0.5 ml h⁻¹, depending on the geometry of the reactor used.United States. National Institutes of Health (RO1 AI087879

Global gene disruption in human cells to assign genes to phenotypes

Insertional mutagenesis in a haploid background can disrupt gene function[superscript 1]. We extend our earlier work by using a retroviral gene-trap vector to generate insertions in >98% of the genes expressed in a human cancer cell line that is haploid for all but one of its chromosomes. We apply phenotypic interrogation via tag sequencing (PhITSeq) to examine millions of mutant alleles through selection and parallel sequencing. Analysis of pools of cells, rather than individual clones[superscript 1] enables rapid assessment of the spectrum of genes involved in the phenotypes under study. This facilitates comparative screens as illustrated here for the family of cytolethal distending toxins (CDTs). CDTs are virulence factors secreted by a variety of pathogenic Gram-negative bacteria responsible for tissue damage at distinct anatomical sites[superscript 2]. We identify 743 mutations distributed over 12 human genes important for intoxication by four different CDTs. Although related CDTs may share host factors, they also exploit unique host factors to yield a profile characteristic for each CDT

C5b-9 membrane attack complex formation and extracellular vesicle shedding in Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma

The early complement components have emerged as mediators of pro-oncogenic inflammation, classically inferred to cause terminal complement activation, but there are limited data on the activity of terminal complement in cancer. We previously reported elevated serum and tissue C9, the terminal complement component, in esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) compared to the precursor condition Barrett’s Esophagus (BE) and healthy controls. Here, we investigate the level and cellular fates of the terminal complement complex C5b-9, also known as the membrane attack complex. Punctate C5b-9 staining and diffuse C9 staining was detected in BE and EAC by multiplex immunohistofluorescence without corresponding increase of C9 mRNA transcript. Increased C9 and C5b-9 staining were observed in the sequence normal squamous epithelium, BE, low- and high-grade dysplasia, EAC. C5b-9 positive esophageal cells were morphologically intact, indicative of sublytic or complement-evasion mechanisms. To investigate this at a cellular level, we exposed non-dysplastic BE (BAR-T and CP-A), high-grade dysplastic BE (CP-B and CP-D) and EAC (FLO-1 and OE-33) cell lines to the same sublytic dose of immunopurified human C9 (3 µg/ml) in the presence of C9-depleted human serum. Cellular C5b-9 was visualized by immunofluorescence confocal microscopy. Shed C5b-9 in the form of extracellular vesicles (EV) was measured in collected conditioned medium using recently described microfluidic immunoassay with capture by a mixture of three tetraspanin antibodies (CD9/CD63/CD81) and detection by surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) after EV labelling with C5b-9 or C9 antibody conjugated SERS nanotags. Following C9 exposure, all examined cell lines formed C5b-9, internalized C5b-9, and shed C5b-9+ and C9+ EVs, albeit at varying levels despite receiving the same C9 dose. In conclusion, these results confirm increased esophageal C5b-9 formation during EAC development and demonstrate capability and heterogeneity in C5b-9 formation and shedding in BE and EAC cell lines following sublytic C9 exposure. Future work may explore the molecular mechanisms and pathogenic implications of the shed C5b-9+ EV

The Cerebral Microvasculature in Schizophrenia: A Laser Capture Microdissection Study

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of brain and peripheral tissues in schizophrenia patients have indicated impaired energy supply to the brain. A number of studies have also demonstrated dysfunction of the microvasculature in schizophrenia patients. Together these findings are consistent with a hypothesis of blood-brain barrier dysfunction in schizophrenia. In this study, we have investigated the cerebral vascular endothelium of schizophrenia patients at the level of transcriptomics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used laser capture microdissection to isolate both microvascular endothelial cells and neurons from post mortem brain tissue from schizophrenia patients and healthy controls. RNA was isolated from these cell populations, amplified, and analysed using two independent microarray platforms, Affymetrix HG133plus2.0 GeneChips and CodeLink Whole Human Genome arrays. In the first instance, we used the dataset to compare the neuronal and endothelial data, in order to demonstrate that the predicted differences between cell types could be detected using this methodology. We then compared neuronal and endothelial data separately between schizophrenic subjects and controls. Analysis of the endothelial samples showed differences in gene expression between schizophrenics and controls which were reproducible in a second microarray platform. Functional profiling revealed that these changes were primarily found in genes relating to inflammatory processes. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides preliminary evidence of molecular alterations of the cerebral microvasculature in schizophrenia patients, suggestive of a hypo-inflammatory state in this tissue type. Further investigation of the blood-brain barrier in schizophrenia is warranted