Trade liberalisation and greenhouse gas emissions: the case of dairying in the European Union and New Zealand

International Relations/Trade,

Advancing primary sector adaptation in Aotearoa New Zealand

Climate change is already being experienced across the primary sector in Aotearoa New Zealand. Adapting to the impacts already being observed, while also anticipating future impacts, requires consideration of different time frames as well as grounding within the farmer or grower’s own contexts. Uncertainty regarding longer-term climatic changes can present challenges for decision-making in the present time, but a growing body of analytical and practical processes can support this. Although some farmers are experimenting with different types of adaptation, more generally there is a dearth of action, particularly planning beyond the present and immediate future. Policy for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness and lifetimes of adaptation actions is required, as well as extension services supporting farmers and growers

Adapting to Avoidable and Unavoidable Climate Change: What must Aotearoa New Zealand do?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report Climate Change 2022: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability gives a stark warning of the urgency to adapt to avoidable and unavoidable climate change impacts and to transition to a more climate-resilient future. Aotearoa New Zealand has made some progress in setting up the institutional and planning frameworks for adaptation, but implementation is slow. Delay will increase the adverse consequences for humans and ecosystems, widen the adaptation gap, and increase the cost and damage burden to current and future generations, and those least able to adjust. Taking proactive actions today to avoid further exposure will enable a fairer and more robust and effective path for adaptation. Here we develop a report card for Aotearoa New Zealand’s adaptation effort and recommend what we must do next

Robust adaptation decision-making under uncertainty: Real Options Analysis for water storage

Planning for climate change adaptation is challenging due to the inherent uncertainty associated with future climate changes. Although we have a range of climate projections, even these cannot provide a definitive picture of the future, with little certainty regarding the timing, magnitude and location of change. As a result there is increasing interest in approaches that can accommodate uncertainty better. A range of approaches exist and are being developed across several disciplines. Each has advantages and disadvantages and is suited for different types of decisions. In this study we focus on one of these approaches, Real Options Analysis (ROA), and chose water storage for irrigation as an example to demonstrate its use in uncertain futures

The real economic dimensions of climate change

The impacts of COVID-19 and efforts to stimulate recovery from the pandemic have highlighted the need for information about how disasters affect the real economy: temporal and spatial dynamics, cascading risks of disruption to employment, debt, trade, investments, bond markets, and real estate markets, among others. This commentary explores what information on the economic dimensions of climate change is needed to inform decisions about adapting to and effectively averting, minimizing, and addressing climate risks. We review the economic information presented in special reports from the IPCC AR6 cycle (SR1.5, SROCC, and SRCCL). We find that the information presented in these reports expands beyond costs of mitigation options, and potential negative GDP effects of climate impacts to include real economic dimensions in food production and land use (forestry and agriculture), coastal areas and fisheries, among others. This reflects an emerging literature which addresses a wider spectrum of economic and financial aspects relevant to climate change and national and regional priorities. Five emerging areas of work related to climate impacts on the real economy and on financial services provide essential additional information for decisions about efforts at all levels to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement and the overall objective of the UNFCCC Convention. Insights from economic analysis of the coronavirus pandemic—a sustained, complex disaster with global consequences across the real economy and financial services—can help highlight useful areas of research and discussion for policy makers considering climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks

‘As a farmer you've just got to learn to cope’: Understanding dairy farmers' perceptions of climate change and adaptation decisions in the lower South Island of Aotearoa-New Zealand

The impacts and implications of climate change – such as floods, droughts, heavy rainfall and increased regulation – are affecting dairy farming practices in the lower South Island (Te Waipaounamu) of Aotearoa-New Zealand. Adapting to these changes, in an equitable and transformational manner, is dependent on understanding the underlying root causes of vulnerability alongside local knowledge and values. We apply an intersectional values-based and contextual analysis to describe how past and present processes of agrarian change interact across different farmer identities to influence adaptive pathways. Local knowledge, place-based experience, values and perceptions of fairness intersect with different facets of a farmer's identity – such as financial capacity, land ownership status, debt arrangements, age and gendered participation – to enable or constrain adaptive action. Notably, notions of fairness, whether real or perceived, vary across farmer groups, and influence the kinds of adaptation activities that dairy farmers are willing, or potentially able, to engage in. The results call for more contextualised engagement with farming communities, and highlight the need to build a shared understanding of the complex historical, social, economic, cultural and environmental drivers of past, present and future change, in this highly productive, yet risky, agricultural landscape

Understanding the influence of indigenous values on change in the dairy industry

Communities, scientists, policy-makers and industries are requiring farmers to address environmental and wellbeing challenges in their on-farm management, transitioning away from a productivity dominated focus towards a multi-faceted system focus that includes environmental and social values. This paper analyses how Miraka Ltd., an Aotearoa-New Zealand indigenous owned and operated milk company, has taken on the role of institutional entrepreneur to enable and support change towards a multi-faceted system amongst its supply farmers. Observations and interviews were carried out to: (i) identify farmers’ changes in practices, beliefs and values over the last ten years; and (ii) identify how Miraka functions as an indigenous entrepreneur in the agricultural sector. Findings show that interviewees were initially guided by business and family-oriented values, beliefs and practices, but in response to the institutional entrepreneurship by Miraka, approximately half of the interviewees changed these values, beliefs and practices, by internalising people and environmental values. The main strategies employed by Miraka were mobilisation of material resources such as incentives and awards, creation of a rationale addressing environmental and social concerns in the dairy sector, and proactive connection with new actors. The research shows an indigenous owned small-medium enterprise can make changes in values, beliefs and practices amongst its supply farmers, but requires a stronger shared base of values to contribute to a wider economic change. The discussion connects these findings to wider literature on diverse economies and indigenous entrepreneurship to identify to what extent an indigenous small-medium enterprise can contribute to a system change

Tools for adaptive governance for complex social-ecological systems: A review of role-playing-games as serious games at the community-policy interface

The management of natural resources—from forests to fisheries to freshwater—is becoming increasingly complex and requires new tools and processes for engaging with individuals, communities, and decision-makers. Policy makers and practitioners have begun using serious games (SGs) (those used for purposes other than entertainment) to overcome some of the complex challenges of governing resources in social-ecological systems. This paper uses a systematic literature review methodology to assess role-playing SGs for natural resource management. Fifty-two articles from the role-playing game (RPG) subset of SGs are identified, synthesised and analysed using a multi-criteria evaluation framework. First, we explore three theoretical and conceptual elements of games: principles of RPGs, functions of games, and (practical) game characteristics. We evaluate game elements, including game design, adherence to reality and the degree to which games integrate elements of participatory—and action research. These dimensions of RPGs are then analysed and discussed. Particular attention is paid to the value and application of RPGs to address complex problems with interacting environmental, social, cultural and economic challenges, and the extent to which they can inform adaptive governance solutions. Results show that RPGs can be a valuable tool at different levels; however, we also identify important gaps in the current state of knowledge, in particular, related to bridging community—and higher-level decision-making scales through RPGs

Severe climate change risks to food security and nutrition

This paper discusses severe risks to food security and nutrition that are linked to ongoing and projected climate change, particularly climate and weather extremes in global warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation. We specifically consider the impacts on populations vulnerable to food insecurity and malnutrition due to lower income, lower access to nutritious food, or social discrimination. The paper defines climate-related “severe risk” in the context of food security and nutrition, using a combination of criteria, including the magnitude and likelihood of adverse consequences, the timing of the risk and the ability to reduce the risk. Severe climate change risks to food security and nutrition are those which result, with high likelihood, in pervasive and persistent food insecurity and malnutrition for millions of people, have the potential for cascading effects beyond the food systems, and against which we have limited ability to prevent or fully respond. The paper uses internationally agreed definitions of risks to food security and nutrition to describe the magnitude of adverse consequences. Moreover, the paper assesses the conditions under which climate change-induced risks to food security and nutrition could become severe based on findings in the literature using different climate change scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways. Finally, the paper proposes adaptation options, including institutional management and governance actions, that could be taken now to prevent or reduce the severe climate risks to future human food security and nutrition

Adaptation knowledge for New Zealand’s primary industries: Known, not known and needed

Climate sensitive primary industries including pastoral farming, high-value horticulture and viticulture are central to Aotearoa-New Zealand’s economy. While advances have been made in understanding the impacts and implications of climate change critical knowledge gaps remain, particularly for adaptation. This study develops and applies a novel methodology to identify and characterise adaptation knowledge for primary industries. The basis for the review is ten years’ of research and action under the Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change (SLMACC) program, supplemented with a systematic review of the published literature. Reports (n = 32) and literature (n = 22) are reviewed and assessed using the Adaptation Knowledge Cycle to characterise analytical and empirical foci. The detailed assessment of knowledge for Impacts, Implications, Decisions or Actions enables a robust and rigorous assessment of existing knowledge, identifies critical research gaps and emerging needs. Results show research to date has focused almost exclusively on understanding the impact of climate variability and extremes on land management. There are significant empirical (e.g. location and sector) and methodological (e.g. integrated assessments, scenarios, and vulnerability assessment) gaps, for at risk regions and sectors, and limited understanding of the decisions and actions necessary to enable successful adaptation. To inform future adaptation planning, additional work is required to better understand the implications, decision-making processes and obstacles to action. More detailed understanding of location-, season-, time- and sector-specific responses to climate change is also necessary. Findings advance our understanding of adaptation knowledge and reflect on diversity of information necessary to enable and sustain resilient rural futures and provide a conceptual and methodological basis for similar assessments elsewhere