Robust adaptation decision-making under uncertainty: Real Options Analysis for water storage

Abstract

Planning for climate change adaptation is challenging due to the inherent uncertainty associated with future climate changes. Although we have a range of climate projections, even these cannot provide a definitive picture of the future, with little certainty regarding the timing, magnitude and location of change. As a result there is increasing interest in approaches that can accommodate uncertainty better. A range of approaches exist and are being developed across several disciplines. Each has advantages and disadvantages and is suited for different types of decisions. In this study we focus on one of these approaches, Real Options Analysis (ROA), and chose water storage for irrigation as an example to demonstrate its use in uncertain futures

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