Ecology and behavior of reintroduced Hawaiian geese

[no abstract

Are Markets Rational? Investors’ Response to Persistent Bias in Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts

This dissertation intends to address the following two issues: 1) Persistence of the bias in analysts\u27 earnings forecasts; 2) Investors’ response to such bias. It extends the understanding of information economics in earnings studies, and is expected to improve asset pricing models, suggest better model specifications for earnings studies, provide regulatory policy implications, and facilitate discussions on investor rationality. Using two look-back portfolio formation methods that capture salient features of analysts\u27 past forecasting behavior, I form quintile portfolios that describe the range of analysts\u27 forecasting behavior. The optimistic portfolios refer to the portfolios containing firm-quarters whose contemporaneous forecast errors are likely to be negative, while the pessimistic portfolios refer to the portfolios containing firm-quarters whose contemporaneous forecast errors are likely to be positive. Evidence that the two formation methods have significant predictive power for the contemporaneous forecast errors is found and this suggests that there is persistent bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. Investors’ response to the persistent bias is characterized by two hypotheses. The naïve expectations hypothesis (NEH) predicts that investors naively follow analysts’ past forecasting behavior, while the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) predicts that investors fully adjust for analysts’ past forecasting behavior when investors form their own expectations about contemporaneous earnings. Major findings are reported regarding behaviors of two market participants − financial analysts and investors − in forming their expectations in quarterly earnings. The first set of findings provides strong evidence of persistent bias in analysts\u27 forecasts. The second set of findings suggests that investors’ reaction to analysts’ forecasting behavior is complex. The data does not strongly reject the NEH in favor of the REH. It is speculated that investors sometimes seem neither naïve nor rational. Rather, they seem to possess another type of quasi-rational behavior other than naïve. As a result, the simple framework (NEH versus REH) used in this dissertation has a limit. The examination of a full range of investor behavior is encouraged for future research

Wintry distribution patterns and habitat use of Greylag Geese Anser anser in a city in southern Germany

Anders als bei den meisten nordischen wilden Gänsepopulationen konnte bei den verwilderten Graugänsen in Stuttgart bisher kein ausgeprägtes Zugverhalten beobachtet werden. Über ihre Verbreitung im Winter war bisher wenig bekannt. Es wurde daher untersucht, ob winterliche Witterung zu Veränderungen der Verbreitungsmuster und des Habitatgebrauchs dieser sesshaften Gänse führte. Dafür wurden drei Methoden angewandt: (1) Der Bestand der im Winter 2004/05 im Stadtbereich anzutreffenden Gänse wurde wöchentlich erfasst, (2) die Veränderungen der Verbreitungsmuster und der Habitatnutzung anhand von Ringablesungen dokumentiert und (3) Faecestransekte zur Messung der relativen Beweidungsintensität auf verschiedenen Wiesen eingerichtet. Bei den wöchentlichen Zählungen hielten sich zwischen 80 und 159 Graugänse im Untersuchungsgebiet auf. Einige Gänse verließen zeitweise das Stadtgebiet, andere wanderten ein. Die Verteilungsmuster variierten individuell: Während einige Gänse nur wenige Gebiete nutzten, flogen andere weiter umher. Die wöchentliche Beweidungsintensität war am Max- Eyth-See höher als in den städtischen Parks. Bei zugefrorenen Seen suchten viele Gänse das Neckarufer beim Max-Eyth-See auf, das sonst wenig genutzt wurde. Eine weitere Populationszunahme könnte in absehbarer Zeit zu Veränderungen im Verteilungsmuster der Gänse und zur Besiedlung neuer Gebiete im weiteren Umkreis führen.Unlike most wild Nordic goose populations, the feral Greylag Geese in Stuttgart so far do not show marked migratory behaviour. We investigated how wintry weather conditions changed distribution patterns and habitat use of these usually sedentary geese and whether they were forced to switch to snow- and ice-free areas. Th ree diff erent methods were used to investigate this: (1) Th e number of geese present in diff erent areas of the city during winter 2004/05 was recorded, (2) the changes in distribution patterns of ringed individuals noted and (3) faeces transects established on diff erent pastures to measure relative grazing pressure on a weekly basis. During weekly counts 80 - 159 Greylags were recorded throughout the study area indicating temporal immigration and emigration of geese. Distribution patterns showed large individual variation: Whereas some geese used only few areas some others roamed more widely.Weekly grazing intensity at the Max-Eyth-Lake was always higher than within the city. While the lakes were frozen up most geese used habitats along the river Neckar adjacent to the Max-Eyth-Lake. During these periods the river Neckar was the only stretch of open water in the study area and became more important to the geese. A further increase in numbers might change the distribution pattern of the geese and may lead to colonisation of more distant areas in the future

Shareholder Protection And Forecast Bias

This research explores whether shareholder protection influences analyst optimism and forecast accuracy in a global setting. The first set of empirical results suggests that, as commonly observed in the existing domestic literature, analyst optimism characterizes analysts’ forecasts in the 19 sample countries. Further empirical results provide evidence that analyst forecasts issued in countries with strong shareholder protection laws are less optimistic and more accurate than analyst forecasts published in countries with weak protection laws. It is also observed that analyst forecast is superior to a naïve model of no change in earnings. (JEL: G15, G18

Agency Conflicts, Financial Distress, and Syndicate Structure: Evidence from Japanese Borrowers

We examine how borrower firm characteristics affect the size structure in the Japanese syndicated loan market for the 1999-2003 period. Consistent with the view by Lee and Mullineaux (2004), we find that syndicates are smaller when borrowers have higher credit risk, while firms with greater information asymmetry are associated with larger syndicates in Japan. These results are primarily driven by nonkeiretsu (non-business group) firms. This suggests that the role of enhanced monitoring and facilitated renegotiation is especially useful for banks participating in Japanese syndicated loan for non-keiretsu firms. On the other hand, information problems seem to be less severe for keiretsu (business group) firms which tend to have easier access to syndicated loan via the intermediation of in-house banks in the relevant syndicate. Finally, we find that keiretsu (non-keiretsu) firms have less (more) fraction of loan by their agent banks as the maturity rises. It appears that main banks of keiretsu firms with informational advantage are likely to retain less of the loan and form a more dispersed syndicate to "signal' that the loan is of high quality with increased maturity. This further confirms the view that information problems are less severe in the keiretsu firms.

Non-native and naturalized bird species (neozoa) in Germany, part I: occurrence, population size and status

Dies ist der erste Bericht der Projektgruppe Neozoen der DO-G. Er beinhaltet eine Zusammestellung aller bisher bekannt gewordenen Vorkommen von nichtheimischen Vogelarten in Deutschland und fasst unsere Kenntnisse über Auftreten, Brutbestand, Bestandstrend und Status (in definierten Statuskategorien) zusammen. Bis 2007 wurden in Deutschland 341 nichtheimische Vogelarten festgestellt, von denen 251 wohl nicht im Freiland gebrütet haben und nach derzeitigem Kenntnisstand keine biologische Relevanz für die heimischen Artengemeinschaft haben. Andererseits haben 90 Neozoenarten mindestens einmal in Deutschland gebrütet, und ihr derzeitiger Brutstatus wird (+/-) ausführlich beschrieben. Eine Reihe dieser Arten haben sich inzwischen in Deutschland fest etabliert (Kategorie C), weil sie seit mindestens 25 Jahren und mindestens drei Generationen hier brüten (C1); dies sind Kanadagans, Rostgans, Mandarinente, Jagdfasan, Straßentaube und Halsbandsittich. Bei zwei weiteren Arten werden die Kriterien für die Etablierung in wenigen Jahren erfüllt sein: Alexandersittich und Gelbkopfamazone. Bei mehreren Arten existieren neben den Wildvogelpopulationen auch Brutbestände von Neozoen (sowie Mischbestände), u.a. Höckerschwan, Graugans, Weißwangengans und Stockente. Die Nilgans hat den Etablierungsstatus C1 zwar in Deutschland noch nicht erreicht, jedoch in einigen Nachbarländern, und wird daher in der Kategorie C5 als etabliert geführt, bis eine Überführung in Kategorie C1 als voll etabliert im Jahr 2009 möglich ist. Angesichts derzeitiger Entwicklungen in Handel und Haltung exotischer Vögel ist mit einer anhaltenden Zunahme des Auftretens und der Etablierung von Neozoen in unserem Raum zu rechnen.This is the first report of the German Neozoa Working Group (PG Neozoen der DO-G), on the occurrence, status, population size and population trend of all introduced/naturalized species recorded in Germany (and adjacent countries). Up to 2007, 341 introduced bird species have been recorded in Germany, the majority of which do not have any importance with regard to the national avifauna (251 species in status category E3 are “non-breeding”). There are, however, 90 species which have bred in the wild at least once in Germany. Quite a range of introduced species have reached the status of formal establishment (category C) having bred in Germany for at least 25 years and over at least three generations (C1), e.g. Canada Goose, Ruddy Shelduck, Mandarin Duck, Ring-necked Pheasant, Feral Pigeon, and Ring-necked Parakeet; in two more species the criteria for establishment will soon be fulfilled, e.g. Alexandrine Parakeet and Yellow-headed Amazon. At least four species have naturalized populations next to indigenous ones, i.e. Mute Swan, Barnacle Goose, Greylag Goose, and Mallard. One species, the Egyptian Goose, has not yet achieved C1-Status in Germany, but has done so in adjacent countries, thus qualifying for C5 status (until fully established in Germany in 2009). Considering current developments in exotic bird trade and bird keeping, further increases in occurrence and naturalization of neozoan bird species in Germany are to be expected. The consequences of this development will be discussed in later reports

What is Needed the Most in MT-Supported Paper Writing

PACLIC / The University of the Philippines Visayas Cebu College Cebu City, Philippines / November 20-22, 200