A global evaluation of forest interior area dynamics using tree cover data from 2000 to 2012

Context Published maps of global tree cover derived from Landsat data have indicated substantial changes in forest area from 2000 to 2012. The changes can be arranged in different patterns, with different conse- quences for forest fragmentation. Thus, the changes in forest area do not necessarily equate to changes in forest sustainability. Objective The objective is to assess global and regional changes in forest fragmentation in relation to the change of forest area from 2000 to 2012. Methods Using published global tree cover data, forest and forest interior areas were mapped in 2000 and 2012. The locations of forest interior change were compared to the locations of overall forest change to identify the direct (pixel level) and indirect (landscape level) components of forest interior change. The changes of forest interior area were compared to the changes of total forest area in each of 768 ecological regions. Results A 1.71 million km2 (3.2 %) net loss of global forest area translated to a net loss of 3.76 million km2 (9.9 %) of forest interior area. The difference in loss rates was consistent in most of the 768 ecological regions. The indirect component accounted for 2.44 million km2 of the net forest interior change, com- pared to 1.32 million km2 that was attributable to the direct component. Conclusion Forest area loss alone from 2000 to 2012 underestimates ecological risks from forest fragmen- tation. In addition to the direct loss of forest, there was a widespread shift of the remaining global forest to a more fragmented condition.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Beyond expectations: the physiological basis of sensory-enhancement of satiety

Background/Objectives: Consumption of high-energy beverages has been implicated as a risk factor for weight gain, yet why nutrients ingested as beverages fail to generate adequate satiety remains unclear. In general consumers do not expect drinks to be satiating, but drinks generate greater satiety when their sensory characteristics imply they may be filling. These findings challenge traditional bottom-up models of how gut-based satiety signals modify behavior to suggest that beliefs at the point of ingestion modify gut-based satiety signaling. Subjects/Methods: Healthy volunteers (n = 23) consumed four different beverages, combining an overt sensory manipulation (thin, Low Sensory, LS, or thicker and more creamy, Enhanced Sensory, ES) and covert nutrient manipulation (low energy, LE, 78kcal; high energy, HE, 267 kcal) on different days. Effects on satiety were assessed through rated appetite and levels of glucose, insulin, pancreatic polypeptide (PP) and cholesystokinin (CCK) recorded periodically over 90 minutes, and through intake at an ad libitum test lunch. Results: Intake at the test lunch and rated appetite were both altered by both the sensory and nutrient manipulations, with lowest intake and greatest suppression of hunger post-drink in the ESHE condition. Insulin increased more after HE than LE drinks, and after ES than LS drinks, while PP levels were higher after ES than LS versions. CCK levels only increased after the ESHE drink. Conclusions: These data confirm acute sensitivity of satiety after consuming a drink both to the sensory characteristics and nutrient content of the drink, and suggest that this may be at least in part due to top-down modulation of release of satiety-related gut hormones

Discrete Model of Ideological Struggle Accounting for Migration

A discrete in time model of ideological competition is formulated taking into account population migration. The model is based on interactions between global populations of non-believers and followers of different ideologies. The complex dynamics of the attracting manifolds is investigated. Conversion from one ideology to another by means of (i) mass media influence and (ii) interpersonal relations is considered. Moreover a different birth rate is assumed for different ideologies, the rate being assumed to be positive for the reference population, made of initially non-believers. Ideological competition can happen in one or several regions in space. In the latter case, migration of non-believers and adepts is allowed; this leads to an enrichment of the ideological dynamics. Finally, the current ideological situation in the Arab countries and China is commented upon from the point of view of the presently developed mathematical model. The massive forced conversion by Ottoman Turks in the Balkans is briefly discussed.Comment: 24 pages, with 5 figures and 52 refs.; prepared for a Special issue of Advances in Complex System

Let me Google that for you:a time series analysis of seasonality in internet search trends for terms related to foot and ankle pain

BACKGROUND: The analysis of internet search traffic may present the opportunity to gain insights into general trends and patterns in information seeking behaviour related to medical conditions at a population level. For prevalent and widespread problems such as foot and ankle pain, this information has the potential to improve our understanding of seasonality and trends within these conditions and their treatments, and may act as a useful proxy for their true incidence/prevalence characteristics. This study aimed to explore seasonal effects, general trends and relative popularity of internet search terms related to foot and ankle pain over the past decade. METHODS: We used the Google Trends tool to obtain relative search engine traffic for terms relating to foot and ankle pain and common treatments from Google search and affiliated pages for major northern and southern hemisphere English speaking nations. Analysis of overall trends and seasonality including summer/winter differences was carried out on these terms. RESULTS: Searches relating to general foot pain were on average 3.4 times more common than those relating to ankle pain, and twice as common as searches relating to heel pain. Distinct seasonal effects were seen in the northern hemisphere, with large increases in search volumes in the summer months compared to winter for foot (p = 0.004, 95 % CI [22.2–32.1]), ankle (p = 0.0078, 95 % CI [20.9–35.5]), and heel pain (p = 0.004, 95 % CI [29.1–45.6]). These seasonal effects were reflected by data from Australia, with the exception of ankle pain. Annual seasonal effects for treatment options were limited to terms related to foot surgery and ankle orthoses (p = 0.031, 95 % CI [3.5–20.9]; p = 0.004, 95 % CI [7.6–25.2] respectively), again increasing in the summer months. CONCLUSIONS: A number of general trends and annual seasonal effects were found in time series internet search data for terms relating to foot and ankle pain. This data may provide insights into these conditions at population levels. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13047-015-0074-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Phase diagram for diblock copolymer melts under cylindrical confinement

We extensively study the phase diagram of a diblock copolymer melt confined in a cylindrical nanopore using real-space self-consistent mean-field theory. We discover a rich variety of new two-dimensional equilibrium structures that have no analog in the unconfined system. These include non-hexagonally coordinated cylinder phases and structures intermediate between lamellae and cylinders. We map the stability regions and phase boundaries for all the structures we find. As the pore radius is decreased, the pore accommodates fewer cylindrical domains and structural transitions occur as cylinders are eliminated. Our results are consistent with experiments, but we also predict phases yet to be observed.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures. submitted to Physical Review Letter

Vortex annihilation in the ordering kinetics of the O(2) model

The vortex-vortex and vortex-antivortex correlation functions are determined for the two-dimensional O(2) model undergoing phase ordering. We find reasonably good agreement with simulation results for the vortex-vortex correlation function where there is a short-scaled distance depletion zone due to the repulsion of like-signed vortices. The vortex-antivortex correlation function agrees well with simulation results for intermediate and long-scaled distances. At short-scaled distances the simulations show a depletion zone not seen in the theory.Comment: 28 pages, REVTeX, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Long-term changes in the water quality of rainfall, cloud water and stream water for moorland, forested and clear-felled catchments at Plynlimon, mid-Wales

Long term changes in the water quality of rainfall, cloud water and stream waters draining acidic and acid sensitive moorland and forested catchments at Plynlimon, mid-Wales, are examined for the period 1983 to 2001. Atmospheric inputs of chloride and sulphate are influenced by the relative inputs of clean maritime and polluted land based air masses. There is no systematic increase or decrease over time for chloride and non-sea-salt sulphate. Rather, there is a decadal scale process possibly representative of the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation that affects the maritime and pollution climate of the Atlantic seaboard of the UK. Over 17 years of study, there may be a small decrease in non-sea-salt sulphate of about 10 &#956;eq l^-1 and a small improvement in acid neutralising capacity of about 20 to 30 &#956;eq l^-1 in rainfall. There is a clear improvement in cloud water chemistry with respect to pollutant components (ammonium, nitrate, non-sea-salt sulphate) and acidity (acid neutralising capacity improved by about 300 &#956;eq l^-1) through the study period. Many of the changes in cloud water chemistry are similar to rainfall over the same period except the magnitude of change is larger for the cloud water. Within the streams, there is some evidence for reductions in acidity as reflected by acid neutralising capacity becoming less negative. For one stream, deforestation occurred during the sampling period and this led to large increases in nitrate and smaller increases in aluminium midway through the study period. However, the climate and hydrological variability largely masked out other changes. The current analysis provides only a start to identifying trends for such a complex and variable environmental system. The need for strong statistical tools is emphasised to resolve issues of: (a) hydrological induced water quality variability, (b) changing soil and groundwater &quot;endmember&quot; chemistry contribution to the stream and (c) the non-linear patterns of change. Nonetheless, the analysis is enhanced by examining trends in chemistry for yearly averages and yearly average low catch and high catch rainfall and cloud water events as well as low and high flow stream chemistry. This approach allows trends to be examined within the context of endmember mixing.</p> <p style='line-height: 20px;'><b>Keywords: </b>Calcium, aluminium, ammonium, pH, Gran alkalinity, ANC, nitrate, chloride, sulphate, Plynlimon, cloud, mist, rainfall, stream, acidification, North Atlantic Oscillation, trend

Structural Change in (Economic) Time Series

Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data. The exposition is confined to retrospective methods for univariate time series. Several recent methods for dating structural changes are compared using a time series of oil prices spanning more than 60 years. The methods broadly agree for the first part of the series up to the mid-1980s, for which changes are associated with major historical events, but provide somewhat different solutions thereafter, reflecting a gradual increase in oil prices that is not well described by a step function. As a further illustration, 1990s data on the volatility of the Hang Seng stock market index are reanalyzed.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Long-term changes in the water quality of rainfall, cloud water and stream water for moorland, forested and clear-felled catchments at Plynlimon, mid-Wales

International audienceLong term changes in the water quality of rainfall, cloud water and stream waters draining acidic and acid sensitive moorland and forested catchments at Plynlimon, mid-Wales, are examined for the period 1983 to 2001. Atmospheric inputs of chloride and sulphate are influenced by the relative inputs of clean maritime and polluted land based air masses. There is no systematic increase or decrease over time for chloride and non-sea-salt sulphate. Rather, there is a decadal scale process possibly representative of the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation that affects the maritime and pollution climate of the Atlantic seaboard of the UK. Over 17 years of study, there may be a small decrease in non-sea-salt sulphate of about 10 ?eq l-1 and a small improvement in acid neutralising capacity of about 20 to 30 ?eq l-1 in rainfall. There is a clear improvement in cloud water chemistry with respect to pollutant components (ammonium, nitrate, non-sea-salt sulphate) and acidity (acid neutralising capacity improved by about 300 ?eq l-1) through the study period. Many of the changes in cloud water chemistry are similar to rainfall over the same period except the magnitude of change is larger for the cloud water. Within the streams, there is some evidence for reductions in acidity as reflected by acid neutralising capacity becoming less negative. For one stream, deforestation occurred during the sampling period and this led to large increases in nitrate and smaller increases in aluminium midway through the study period. However, the climate and hydrological variability largely masked out other changes. The current analysis provides only a start to identifying trends for such a complex and variable environmental system. The need for strong statistical tools is emphasised to resolve issues of: (a) hydrological induced water quality variability, (b) changing soil and groundwater "endmember" chemistry contribution to the stream and (c) the non-linear patterns of change. Nonetheless, the analysis is enhanced by examining trends in chemistry for yearly averages and yearly average low catch and high catch rainfall and cloud water events as well as low and high flow stream chemistry. This approach allows trends to be examined within the context of endmember mixing. Keywords: Calcium, aluminium, ammonium, pH, Gran alkalinity, ANC, nitrate, chloride, sulphate, Plynlimon, cloud, mist, rainfall, stream, acidification, North Atlantic Oscillation, trend

The impact of conifer harvesting on stream water quality: the Afon Hafren, mid-Wales

International audienceResults for long term water quality monitoring are described for the headwaters of the principal headwater stream of the River Severn, the Afon Hafren. The results are linked to within-catchment information to describe the influence of conifer harvesting on stream and shallow groundwater quality. A 19-year record of water quality data for the Hafren (a partially spruce forested catchment with podzolic soil) shows the classic patterns of hydrochemical change in relation to concentration and flow responses for upland forested systems. Progressive felling of almost two-thirds of the forest over the period of study resulted in little impact from harvesting and replanting in relation to stream water quality. However, at the local scale, a six years' study of felling indicated significant release of nitrate into both surface and groundwater; this persisted for two or three years before declining. The study has shown two important features. Firstly, phased felling has led to minimal impacts on stream water. This contrasts with the results of an experimental clear fell for the adjacent catchment of the Afon Hore where a distinct water quality deterioration was observed for a few years. Secondly, there are localised zones with varying hydrology that link to groundwater sources with fracture flow properties. This variability makes extrapolation to the catchment scale difficult without very extensive monitoring. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to strong support for the use of phased felling-based management of catchments and the complexities of within catchment processes. Keywords: deforestation, water quality, acidification, pH, nitrate, alkalinity, ANC, aluminium, dissolved organic carbon, Plynlimon, forest, spruce, Afon Hafren, podzo