The relative electoral impact of central party co-ordination and size of party membership at constituency level

Over the past decade, clear evidence has been produced showing that effective constituency campaigning in British general elections can lead to better electoral performance. This evidence has challenged the received wisdom that only national campaigning is significant and that efforts at local level are meaningless rituals. Denver et al. have focused on the role of the national parties in strengthening local campaigns in target seats; Seyd and Whiteley, by contrast, have stressed the importance of local party membership. This article attempts to assess the relative electoral impact of national party co-ordination and constituency party membership and suggests that the impact of these two factors varies by party

Party membership and campaign activity in Britain: The impact of electoral performance

The article examines the impact of electoral results on party membership and activity. Previous studies have focused on the long-term effects of electoral success or failure, suggesting that they may produce a spiral of demobilization or mobilization. The article shows that the dramatic change of electoral fortunes experienced by British parties at the 1997 general election broke this spiral, with the outcome leading to significant changes in the health and activity of local parties. It is concluded that dramatic election results can have significant implications for party organization

Formal and informal prediction of recurrent stroke and myocardial infarction after stroke:a systematic review and evaluation of clinical prediction models in a new cohort

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to: (1) systematically review the reporting and methods used in the development of clinical prediction models for recurrent stroke or myocardial infarction (MI) after ischemic stroke; (2) to meta-analyze their external performance; and (3) to compare clinical prediction models to informal clinicians’ prediction in the Edinburgh Stroke Study (ESS). METHODS: We searched Medline, EMBASE, reference lists and forward citations of relevant articles from 1980 to 19 April 2013. We included articles which developed multivariable clinical prediction models for the prediction of recurrent stroke and/or MI following ischemic stroke. We extracted information to assess aspects of model development as well as metrics of performance to determine predictive ability. Model quality was assessed against a pre-defined set of criteria. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool performance metrics. RESULTS: We identified twelve model development studies and eleven evaluation studies. Investigators often did not report effective sample size, regression coefficients, handling of missing data; typically categorized continuous predictors; and used data dependent methods to build models. A meta-analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) was possible for the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and for the Stroke Prognosis Instrument II (SPI-II); the pooled AUROCCs were 0.60 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.62) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.64), respectively. An evaluation among minor stroke patients in the ESS demonstrated that clinicians discriminated poorly between those with and those without recurrent events and that this was similar to clinical prediction models. CONCLUSIONS: The available models for recurrent stroke discriminate poorly between patients with and without a recurrent stroke or MI after stroke. Models had a similar discrimination to informal clinicians' predictions. Formal prediction may be improved by addressing commonly encountered methodological problems

Targeted use of heparin, heparinoids, or low-molecular-weight heparin to improve outcome after acute ischaemic stroke:an individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

SummaryBackgroundMany international guidelines on the prevention of venous thromboembolism recommend targeting heparin treatment at patients with stroke who have a high risk of venous thrombotic events or a low risk of haemorrhagic events. We sought to identify reliable methods to target anticoagulant treatment and so improve the chance of avoiding death or dependence after stroke.MethodsWe obtained individual patient data from the five largest randomised controlled trials in acute ischaemic stroke that compared heparins (unfractionated heparin, heparinoids, or low-molecular-weight heparin) with aspirin or placebo. We developed and evaluated statistical models for the prediction of thrombotic events (myocardial infarction, stroke, deep vein thrombosis, or pulmonary embolism) and haemorrhagic events (symptomatic intracranial or significant extracranial) in the first 14 days after stroke. We calculated the absolute risk difference for the outcome “dead or dependent” in patients grouped by quartiles of predicted risk of thrombotic and haemorrhagic events with random effect meta-analysis.FindingsPatients with ischaemic stroke who were of advanced age, had increased neurological impairment, or had atrial fibrillation had a high risk of both thrombotic and haemorrhagic events after stroke. Additionally, patients with CT-visible evidence of recent cerebral ischaemia were at increased risk of thrombotic events. In evaluation datasets, the area under a receiver operating curve for prediction models for thrombotic events was 0·63 (95% CI 0·59–0·67) and for haemorrhagic events was 0·60 (0·55–0·64). We found no evidence that the net benefit from heparins increased with either increasing risk of thrombotic events or decreasing risk of haemorrhagic events.InterpretationThere was no evidence that patients with ischaemic stroke who were at higher risk of thrombotic events or lower risk of haemorrhagic events benefited from heparins. We were therefore unable to define a targeted approach to select the patients who would benefit from treatment with early anticoagulant therapy. We recommend that guidelines for routine or selective use of heparin in stroke should be revised.FundingMRC

Novel Approaches to Visualization and Data Mining Reveals Diagnostic Information in the Low Amplitude Region of Serum Mass Spectra from Ovarian Cancer Patients

The ability to identify patterns of diagnostic signatures in proteomic data generated by high throughput mass spectrometry (MS) based serum analysis has recently generated much excitement and interest from the scientific community. These data sets can be very large, with high-resolution MS instrumentation producing 1-2 million data points per sample. Approaches to analyze mass spectral data using unsupervised and supervised data mining operations would greatly benefit from tools that effectively allow for data reduction without losing important diagnostic information. In the past, investigators have proposed approaches where data reduction is performed by a priori peak picking and alignment/warping/smoothing components using rule-based signal-to-noise measurements. Unfortunately, while this type of system has been employed for gene microarray analysis, it is unclear whether it will be effective in the analysis of mass spectral data, which unlike microarray data, is comprised of continuous measurement operations. Moreover, it is unclear where true signal begins and noise ends. Therefore, we have developed an approach to MS data analysis using new types of data visualization and mining operations in which data reduction is accomplished by culling via the intensity of the peaks themselves instead of by location. Applying this new analysis method on a large study set of high resolution mass spectra from healthy and ovarian cancer patients, shows that all of the diagnostic information is contained within the very lowest amplitude regions of the mass spectra. This region can then be selected and studied to identify the exact location and amplitude of the diagnostic biomarkers

Effects of Antiplatelet Therapy After Stroke Caused by Intracerebral Hemorrhage:Extended Follow-up of the RESTART Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance: The Restart or Stop Antithrombotics Randomized Trial (RESTART) found that antiplatelet therapy appeared to be safe up to 5 years after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) that had occurred during antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy. Objectives: To monitor adherence, increase duration of follow-up, and improve precision of estimates of the effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent ICH and major vascular events. Design, setting and participants: From May 22, 2013, through May 31, 2018, this prospective, open, blinded end point, parallel-group randomized clinical trial studied 537 participants at 122 hospitals in the UK. Participants were individuals 18 years or older who had taken antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed ICH, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 hours. After initial follow-up ended on November 30, 2018, annual follow-up was extended until November 30, 2020, for a median of 3.0 years (interquartile range [IQR], 2.0-5.0 years) for the trial cohort. Interventions: Computerized randomization that incorporated minimization allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. Main outcomes and measures: Participants were followed up for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic ICH) and secondary outcomes (all major vascular events) for up to 7 years. Data from all randomized participants were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimization covariates. Results: A total of 537 patients (median age, 76.0 years; IQR, 69.0-82.0 years; 360 [67.0%] male; median time after ICH onset, 76.0 days; IQR, 29.0-146.0 days) were randomly allocated to start (n = 268) or avoid (n = 269 [1 withdrew]) antiplatelet therapy. The primary outcome of recurrent ICH affected 22 of 268 participants (8.2%) allocated to antiplatelet therapy compared with 25 of 268 participants (9.3%) allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.49-1.55; P = .64). A major vascular event affected 72 participants (26.8%) allocated to antiplatelet therapy compared with 87 participants (32.5%) allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.58-1.08; P = .14). Conclusions and relevance: Among patients with ICH who had previously taken antithrombotic therapy, this study found no statistically significant effect of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent ICH or all major vascular events. These findings provide physicians with some reassurance about the use of antiplatelet therapy after ICH if indicated for secondary prevention of major vascular events. Trial registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN71907627

Evaluation of the selectivity and sensitivity of isoform- and mutation-specific RAS antibodies

Researchers rely largely on antibodies to measure the abundance, activity, and localization of a protein, information that provides critical insight into both normal and pathological cellular functions. However, antibodies are not always reliable or universally valid for the methods in which they are used; in particular, the reliability of commercial antibodies against RAS is highly variable. Waters et al . rigorously assessed 22 commercially available RAS antibodies for their utility to detect the distinct RAS isoforms in various cell types and for their use in specific analytical methods. Their findings show how reliably one can interpret the data acquired from each reagent

Automated quantitative MRI volumetry reports support diagnostic interpretation in dementia: a multi-rater, clinical accuracy study

OBJECTIVES: We examined whether providing a quantitative report (QReport) of regional brain volumes improves radiologists' accuracy and confidence in detecting volume loss, and in differentiating Alzheimer's disease (AD) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD), compared with visual assessment alone. METHODS: Our forced-choice multi-rater clinical accuracy study used MRI from 16 AD patients, 14 FTD patients, and 15 healthy controls; age range 52-81. Our QReport was presented to raters with regional grey matter volumes plotted as percentiles against data from a normative population (n = 461). Nine raters with varying radiological experience (3 each: consultants, registrars, 'non-clinical image analysts') assessed each case twice (with and without the QReport). Raters were blinded to clinical and demographic information; they classified scans as 'normal' or 'abnormal' and if 'abnormal' as 'AD' or 'FTD'. RESULTS: The QReport improved sensitivity for detecting volume loss and AD across all raters combined (p = 0.015* and p = 0.002*, respectively). Only the consultant group's accuracy increased significantly when using the QReport (p = 0.02*). Overall, raters' agreement (Cohen's κ) with the 'gold standard' was not significantly affected by the QReport; only the consultant group improved significantly (κs 0.41➔0.55, p = 0.04*). Cronbach's alpha for interrater agreement improved from 0.886 to 0.925, corresponding to an improvement from 'good' to 'excellent'. CONCLUSION: Our QReport referencing single-subject results to normative data alongside visual assessment improved sensitivity, accuracy, and interrater agreement for detecting volume loss. The QReport was most effective in the consultants, suggesting that experience is needed to fully benefit from the additional information provided by quantitative analyses. KEY POINTS: • The use of quantitative report alongside routine visual MRI assessment improves sensitivity and accuracy for detecting volume loss and AD vs visual assessment alone. • Consultant neuroradiologists' assessment accuracy and agreement (kappa scores) significantly improved with the use of quantitative atrophy reports. • First multi-rater radiological clinical evaluation of visual quantitative MRI atrophy report for use as a diagnostic aid in dementia