Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models

International audienceA set of performance metrics is applied to stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models (CCMs) to quantify their ability to reproduce key processes relevant for stratospheric ozone. The same metrics are used to assign a quantitative measure of performance ("grade") to each model-observations comparison shown in Eyring et al. (2006). A wide range of grades is obtained, both for different diagnostics applied to a single model and for the same diagnostic applied to different models, highlighting the wide range in ability of the CCMs to simulate key processes in the stratosphere. No model scores high or low on all tests, but differences in the performance of models can be seen, especially for transport processes where several models get low grades on multiple tests. The grades are used to assign relative weights to the CCM projections of 21st century total ozone. However, only small differences are found between weighted and unweighted multi-model mean total ozone projections. This study raises several issues with the grading and weighting of CCMs that need further examination, but it does provide a framework that will enable quantification of model improvements and assignment of relative weights to the model projections

The CEDAR Project

We describe the plans and objectives of the CEDAR project (Combined e-Science Data Analysis Resource for High Energy Physics) newly funded by the PPARC e-Science programme in the UK. CEDAR will combine the strengths of the well established and widely used HEPDATA database of HEP data and the innovative JetWeb data/Monte Carlo comparison facility, built on the HZTOOL package, and will exploit developing grid technology. The current status and future plans of both of these individual sub-projects within the CEDAR framework are described, showing how they will cohesively provide (a) an extensive archive of Reaction Data, (b) validation and tuning of Monte Carlo programs against these reaction data sets, and (c) a validated code repository for a wide range of HEP code such as parton distribution functions and other calculation codes used by particle physicists. Once established it is envisaged CEDAR will become an important Grid tool used by LHC experimentalists in their analyses and may well serve as a model in other branches of science where there is a need to compare data and complex simulations.Comment: 4 pages, 4 postscript figures, uses CHEP2004.cls. Presented at Computing in High-Energy Physics (CHEP'04), Interlaken, Switzerland, 27th September - 1st October 200

Seasonality in future tropical lower stratospheric temperature trends

The seasonality of the 21st century trends in tropical lower stratospheric temperature (LST) is examined in simulations by a group of comprehensive chemistry-climate models. In contrast to the past LST trends, there is robust seasonal dependence among ensembles of the same model. Furthermore, most models show strongest cooling around July–September and minimal cooling in February–March, which results in a weakening of the seasonality in tropical LST. Sensitivity simulations with isolated forcing reveal that greenhouse gas increases dominate the future tropical LST trend. This seasonally varying LST trend is linked to changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC). The BDC can influence the LST through direct dynamical heating/cooling and indirect radiative effects primarily from ozone changes due to vertical transport. The latter is found to be the main cause for the seasonality of the 21st century LST trend, while it is difficult to separate them in the past

HepForge: A lightweight development environment for HEP software

Setting up the infrastructure to manage a software project can become a task as significant writing the software itself. A variety of useful open source tools are available, such as Web-based viewers for version control systems, "wikis" for collaborative discussions and bug-tracking systems, but their use in high-energy physics, outside large collaborations, is insubstantial. Understandably, physicists would rather do physics than configure project management tools. We introduce the CEDAR HepForge system, which provides a lightweight development environment for HEP software. Services available as part of HepForge include the above-mentioned tools as well as mailing lists, shell accounts, archiving of releases and low-maintenance Web space. HepForge also exists to promote best-practice software development methods and to provide a central repository for re-usable HEP software and phenomenology codes.Comment: 3 pages, 0 figures. To be published in proceedings of CHEP06. Refers to the HepForge facility at http://hepforge.cedar.ac.u

Climatology of Intrusions into the Tropical Upper Troposphere

Regions of upper tropospheric equatorial westerly winds, observed over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during northern fall to spring, are important for extratropical-tropical interactions. This paper focuses on one feature of these “westerly ducts” that has received relatively little attention to date: the occurrence of Rossby wave breaking events that transport tongues of extratropical air deep into the tropics, mix tropical and subtropical air, and can affect deep convection. A climatology of these “intrusion” events formed from 20 years of meteorological analyses shows a strong dependence on the basic-state flow. Notably, intrusion events are found to occur almost exclusively within westerly ducts, with more events in the presence of stronger equatorial westerlies. It is also found that there is strong interannual variability in the frequency of Pacific events, with fewer events during the warm phases of ENSO (consistent with the changes in the basic flow). Since these intrusion events laterally mix trace constituents and have been linked to tropical convection, their spatial and temporal variability may cause related variability in the distribution of trace constituents and tropical convection

Low Temperature Physics

Contains reports on one research project

Stratospheric Polar Vortices

The intense cyclonic vortices that form over the winter pole are one of the most prominent features of the stratospheric circulation. The structure and dynamics of these “polar vortices” play a dominant role in the winter and spring stratospheric circulation and are key to determining distribution of trace gases, in particular ozone, and the couplings between the stratosphere and troposphere. In this chapter, we review the observed structure, dynamical theories, and modeling of these polar vortices.We consider both the zonal mean and three-dimensional potential vorticity perspective and examine the occurrence of extreme events and long-term trends

Upward Wave Activity Flux as a Precursor to Extreme Stratospheric Events and Subsequent Anomalous Surface Weather Regimes

It has recently been shown that extreme stratospheric events (ESEs) are followed by surface weather anomalies (for up to 60 days), suggesting that stratospheric variability might be used to extend weather prediction beyond current time scales. In this paper, attention is drawn away from the stratosphere to demonstrate that the originating point of ESEs is located in the troposphere. First, it is shown that anomalously strong eddy heat fluxes at 100 hPa nearly always precede weak vortex events, and conversely, anomalously weak eddy heat fluxes precede strong vortex events, consistent with wave–mean flow interaction theory. This finding clarifies the dynamical nature of ESEs and suggests that a major source of stratospheric variability (and thus predictability) is located in the troposphere below and not in the stratosphere itself. Second, it is shown that the daily time series of eddy heat flux found at 100 hPa and integrated over the prior 40 days, exhibit a remarkably high anticorrelation (−0.8) with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index at 10 hPa. Following Baldwin and Dunkerton, it is then demonstrated that events with anomalously strong (weak) integrated eddy heat fluxes at 100 hPa are followed by anomalously large (small) surface values of the AO index up to 60 days following each event. This suggests that the stratosphere is unlikely to be the dominant source of the anomalous surface weather regimes discussed in Thompson et al

HepData and JetWeb: HEP data archiving and model validation

The CEDAR collaboration is extending and combining the JetWeb and HepData systems to provide a single service for tuning and validating models of high-energy physics processes. The centrepiece of this activity is the fitting by JetWeb of observables computed from Monte Carlo event generator events against their experimentally determined distributions, as stored in HepData. Caching the results of the JetWeb simulation and comparison stages provides a single cumulative database of event generator tunings, fitted against a wide range of experimental quantities. An important feature of this integration is a family of XML data formats, called HepML.Comment: 4 pages, 0 figures. To be published in proceedings of CHEP0

Epitaxial Growth of La1/3_{1/3}Sr2/3_{2/3}FeO3_3 thin films by laser ablation

We report on the synthesis of high quality La$_{1/3}$Sr$_{2/3}$FeO$_3$ (LSFO) thin films using the pulsed laser deposition technique on both SrTiO$_3$ (STO) and LaAlO$_3$ (LAO) substrates (100)-oriented. From X-Ray diffraction (XRD) studies, we find that the films have an out-of-plane lattice parameter around 0.3865nm, almost independent of the substrate (i.e. the nature of the strains). The transport properties reveal that, while LSFO films deposited on STO exhibit an anomaly in the resistivity vs temperature at 180K (corresponding to the charge-ordered transition and associated with a transition from a paramagnetic to an antiferromagnetic state), the films grown on LAO display a very small magnetoresistance behavior and present an hysteresis around 270K under the application of a 4T magnetic field. The changes in transport properties between both substrates are discussed and compared with the corresponding single crystals.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure