Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

What shocks account for the business cycle frequency and long run movements of output and prices? This paper addresses this question using the identifying assumption that only supply shocks, such as shocks to technology, oil prices, and labor supply affect output in the long run. Real and monetary aggregate demand shocks can affect output, but only in the short run. This assumption sufficiently restricts the reduced form of key macroeconomic variables to allow estimation of the shocks and their effect on output and price at all frequencies. Aggregate demand shocks account for about twenty to thirty percent of output fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Technological shocks account for about one-quarter of cyclical fluctuations, and about one-third of output's variance at low frequencies. Shocks to oil prices are important in explaining episodes in the 1970's and 1980's. Shocks that permanently affect labor input account for the balance of fluctuations in output, namely, about half of its variance at all frequencies.

Semiconducting Compounds and Devices Incorporating Same

Disclosed are semiconducting compounds having one or more phthalimide units and/or one or more head-to-head (H-H) substituted biheteroaryl units. Such compounds can be monomeric, oligomeric, or polymeric, and can exhibit desirable electronic properties and possess processing advantages including solution−processability and/or good stability at ambient conditions

Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

What shocks account for the business cycle frequency and long run movements of output and prices? This paper addresses this question using the identifying assumption that only supply shocks, such as shocks to technology, oil prices, and labor supply affect output in the long run. Real and monetary aggregate demand shocks can affect output, but only in the short run. This assumption sufficiently restricts the reduced form of key macroeconomic variables to allow estimation of the shocks and their effect on output and price at all frequencies. Aggregate demand shocks account for about twenty to thirty percent of output fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Technological shocks account for about one-quarter of cyclical fluctuations, and about one-third of output’s variance at low frequencies. Shocks to oil prices are important in explaining episodes in the 1970’s and 1980’s. Shocks that permanently affect labor output account for the balance of fluctuations in output, namely, about half of its variance at all frequencies

Assembly of hundreds of novel bacterial genomes from the chicken caecum

BACKGROUND: Chickens are a highly important source of protein for a large proportion of the human population. The caecal microbiota plays a crucial role in chicken nutrition through the production of short-chain fatty acids, nitrogen recycling, and amino acid production. In this study, we sequence DNA from caecal content samples taken from 24 chickens belonging to either a fast or a slower growing breed consuming either a vegetable-only diet or a diet containing fish meal. RESULTS: We utilise 1.6 T of Illumina data to construct 469 draft metagenome-assembled bacterial genomes, including 460 novel strains, 283 novel species, and 42 novel genera. We compare our genomes to data from 9 European Union countries and show that these genomes are abundant within European chicken flocks. We also compare the abundance of our genomes, and the carbohydrate active enzymes they produce, between our chicken groups and demonstrate that there are both breed- and diet-specific microbiomes, as well as an overlapping core microbiome. CONCLUSIONS: This data will form the basis for future studies examining the composition and function of the chicken caecal microbiota

Proposal for a low cost close air support aircraft for the year 2000: The Raptor

The Raptor is a proposed low cost Close Air Support (CAS) aircraft for the U.S. Military. The Raptor incorporates a 'cranked arrow' wing planform, and uses canards instead of a traditional horizontal tail. The Raptor is designed to be capable of responsive delivery of effective ordnance in close proximity to friendly ground forces during the day, night, and 'under the weather' conditions. Details are presented of the Raptor's mission, configuration, performance, stability and control, ground support, manufacturing, and overall cost to permit engineering evaluation of the proposed design. A description of the design process and analysis methods used is also provided

GaN directional couplers for integrated quantum photonics

Large cross-section GaN waveguides are proposed as a suitable architecture to achieve integrated quantum photonic circuits. Directional couplers with this geometry have been designed with aid of the beam propagation method and fabricated using inductively coupled plasma etching. Scanning electron microscopy inspection shows high quality facets for end coupling and a well defined gap between rib pairs in the coupling region. Optical characterization at 800 nm shows single-mode operation and coupling-length-dependent splitting ratios. Two photon interference of degenerate photon pairs has been observed in the directional coupler by measurement of the Hong-Ou-Mandel dip with 96% visibility.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Exploring the validity of estimating EQ-5D and SF-6D utility values from the health assessment questionnaire in patients with inflammatory arthritis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Utility scores are used to estimate Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs), applied in determining the cost-effectiveness of health care interventions. In studies where no preference based measures are collected, indirect methods have been developed to estimate utilities from clinical instruments. The aim of this study was to evaluate a published method of estimating the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) and Short Form-6D (SF-6D) (preference based) utility scores from the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) in patients with inflammatory arthritis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were used from 3 cohorts of patients with: early inflammatory arthritis (<10 weeks duration); established (>5 years duration) stable rheumatoid arthritis (RA); and RA being treated with anti-TNF therapy. Patients completed the EQ-5D, SF-6D and HAQ at baseline and a follow-up assessment. EQ-5D and SF-6D scores were predicted from the HAQ using a published method. Differences between predicted and observed EQ-5D and SF-6D scores were assessed using the paired t-test and linear regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Predicted utility scores were generally higher than observed scores (range of differences: EQ-5D 0.01 - 0.06; SF-6D 0.05 - 0.10). Change between predicted values of the EQ-5D and SF-6D corresponded well with observed change in patients with established RA. Change in predicted SF-6D scores was, however, less than half of that in observed values (p < 0.001) in patients with more active disease. Predicted EQ-5D scores underestimated change in cohorts of patients with more active disease.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Predicted utility scores overestimated baseline values but underestimated change. Predicting utility values from the HAQ will therefore likely underestimate the QALYs of interventions, particularly for patients with active disease. We recommend the inclusion of at least one preference based measure in future clinical studies.</p