The 'weight of evidence' concerning tobacco harm: beliefs in mid-twentieth century America

We present a version of Chern et al.'s (1995) Bayesian model of `health risk belief' to track the evolution of the `weight' of epidemiological evidence concerning tobacco harm that was in the possession of the U.S. Tobacco Industry Research Committee (T.I.R.C.) and the U.S. Public Health Service and related groups during the 1950s and early 1960s. We compare our results with public statements assessing the evidence that were made by the organisations during the same period. The results from the models for the U.S. Public Health Service and related groups are not in disagreement with the public statements of these organisations; the results from the lung cancer model for the T.I.R.C. are in disagreement with the assessments of the evidence made by the T.I.R.C.'s Scientific Director in his annual reports. We discuss possible reasons for this, relating our findings to present-day academic and legal debates about the `controversy' surrounding tobacco harm during the mid-twentieth century.

Comparing early years and childhood experiences and outcomes in Scotland, England and three city-regions: a plausible explanation for Scottish ‘excess’ mortality?

Background Negative early years and childhood experiences (EYCE), including socio-economic circumstances, parental health and parenting style, are associated with poor health outcomes both in childhood and adulthood. It has also been proposed that EYCE were historically worse in Scottish areas, especially Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, compared to elsewhere in the UK and that this variation can provide a partial explanation for the excess of ill health and mortality observed among those Scottish populations. Methods Multiple logistic regression analysis was applied to two large, representative, British birth cohorts (the NCDS58 and the BCS70), to test the independent association of area of residence at ages 7 and 5 with risk of behavioural problems, respiratory problems and reading/vocabulary problems at the same age. Cohort members resident in Scotland were compared with those who were resident in England, while those resident in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley were compared with those resident in Merseyside and Greater Manchester. Results After adjustment for a range of relevant variables, the risk of adverse childhood outcomes was found to be either no different, or lower, in the Scottish areas. At a national level, the study reinforces the combined association of socio-economic circumstances, parental health (especially maternal mental health) and parenting with child health outcomes. Conclusion Based on these samples, the study does not support the hypothesis that EYCE were worse in Scotland and Glasgow and the Clyde Valley. It seems, therefore (based on these data), less likely that the roots of the excess mortality observed in the Scottish areas can be explained by these factors.</p

Fantasy proneness and counterfactual thinking

Counterfactual thinking (CFT; mentally simulating alternatives to reality) is central to learning and motivation. Two studies explored the relationship between CFT and fantasy proneness, a personality trait typified by excessive fantasies hard to distinguish from reality. In study1, participants completed a fictional diary entry which was used to measure spontaneous CFT and the Creative Experiences Questionnaire measure of fantasy proneness. Fantasy proneness was significantly correlated with the generation of counterfactual thoughts. Both CFT and fantasy proneness have been independently associated with low mood and study2 included a measure of negative emotional state (the Depression, Anxiety and Stress scale) in addition to the CEQ and CFT. Fantasy proneness and negative emotion both predicted CFT, but no interaction between them was observed. The results suggest that individuals high in fantasy proneness have a general tendency to think counterfactually. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd

Exact and Fast Numerical Algorithms for the Stochastic Wave Equation

On the basis of integral representations we propose fast numerical methods to solve the Cauchy problem for the stochastic wave equation without boundaries and with the Dirichlet boundary conditions. The algorithms are exact in a probabilistic sense

The Slitless Spectroscopy Data Extraction Software aXe

The methods and techniques for the slitless spectroscopy software aXe, which was designed to reduce data from the various slitless spectroscopy modes of Hubble Space Telescope instruments, are described. aXe can treat slitless spectra from different instruments such as ACS, NICMOS and WFC3 through the use of a configuration file which contains all the instrument dependent parameters. The basis of the spectral extraction within aXe are the position, morphology and photometry of the objects on a companion direct image. Several aspects of slitless spectroscopy, such as the overlap of spectra, an extraction dependent on object shape and the provision of flat-field cubes, motivate a dedicated software package, and the solutions offered within aXe are discussed in detail. The effect of the mutual contamination of spectra can be quantitatively assessed in aXe, using spectral and morphological information from the companion direct image(s). A new method named 'aXedrizzle' for 2D rebinning and co-adding spectral data, taken with small shifts or dithers, is described. The extraction of slitless spectra with optimal weighting is outlined and the correction of spectra for detector fringing for the ACS CCD's is presented. Auxiliary software for simulating slitless data and for visualizing the results of an aXe extraction is outlined.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in PASP. A high resolution version is available at http://www.stecf.org/software/slitless_software/axe/axe_PASP.pd

12 St. Martin\u27s Clowns: The Miracle of the Blind Man and the Cripple in Art and Drama

A reprint, with revisions, of a study of the miracle of the healing of a pair of beggars by St. Martin, originally published in Early Drama, Art, and Music Review 17, no. 1 (Fall 1994)

Molecular Gas Properties of the Giant Molecular Cloud Complexes in the Arms and Inter-arms of the Spiral Galaxy NGC 6946

Combining observations of multiple CO lines with radiative transfer modeling is a very powerful tool to investigate the physical properties of the molecular gas in galaxies. Using new observations as well as literature data, we provide the most complete CO ladders ever generated for eight star-forming regions in the spiral arms and inter-arms of the spiral galaxy NGC 6946, with observations of the CO(1-0), CO(2-1), CO(3-2), CO(4-3), CO(6-5), 13CO(1-0) and 13CO(2-1) transitions. For each region, we use the large velocity gradient assumption to derive beam-averaged molecular gas physical properties, namely the gas kinetic temperature (T_K), H2 number volume density n(H2) and CO number column density N(CO). Two complementary approaches are used to compare the observations with the model predictions: chi-square minimisation and likelihood. The physical conditions derived vary greatly from one region to the next: T_K=10-250 K, n(H2)=10^2.3-10^7.0 cm^-3 and N(CO)=10^15.0-10^19.3 cm^-2. The spectral line energy distribution (SLED) of some of these extranuclear regions indicates a star-formation activity that is more intense than that at the centre of our own Milky Way. The molecular gas in regions with a large SLED turnover transition (J_max>4) is hot but tenuous with a high CO column density, while that in regions with a low SLED turnover transition (J_max<=4) is cold but dense with a low CO column density. We finally discuss and find some correlations between the physical properties of the molecular gas in each region and the presence of young stellar population indicators (supernova remnants, HII regions, HI holes, etc.)Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures, MNRAS, Accepte