Midterm Elections Used to Gauge President\u27s Reelection Chances

Since 1952 there have been thirteen instances in which the incumbent president\u27s party lost seats in the House of Representatives in a midterm election. Researchers have created two competing theories to explain this trend. The surge-and-decline theory argues that the reasons for causing high voter turnout in a presidential election are absent in a midterm election, leading to a decline in voter turnout and subsequent losses by the president\u27s party. The other theory, the referendum theory, argues that losses suffered by the president\u27s party are due to the president\u27s performance and the performance of the economy. When it comes to presidential elections, out of the thirteen midterm election losses, the incumbent party was able to retain the White House in the subsequent presidential election six times. The other six times, the incumbent party lost the White House. However, there is little to no research explaining why this is the case. This article attempts to answer two questions. First, can results of midterm elections serve as an indicator of gauging a president\u27s reelection chances? Second, if so, which theory, surge-and-decline or referendum, helps explain this trend this best? Utilizing statistical analysis, my research shows that there is insufficient evidence to conclude whether midterm elections can serve as an indicator of gauging a president\u27s reelection chances

Midterm Elections Used to Gauge President\u27s Reelection Chances

Conventional analysis of midterm elections is usually in relation to the previous presidential election, or the issues or events leading up towards a presidential election. Rarely is midterm elections considered in terms of whether the president, or his party in some cases, would retain the White House in the next presidential election. The focus of this research is to determine whether midterm elections can serve as a predictive indicator of the outcome in the following presidential election. For decades, scholars have speculated as to why the president\u27s party suffers losses at the midterm election. An examination of these theories can provide insight into the variables that should be considered when examining the central question of this research

Coatings and surface treatments for enhanced performance suspensions for future gravitational wave detectors

Further improvements in the low frequency sensitivity of gravitational wave detectors are important for increasing the observable population of astrophysical sources, such as intermediate mass compact black hole binary systems. Improvements in the lower stage mirror and suspension systems will set challenging targets for the required thermal noise performance of the cantilever blade springs, which provide vertical softness and, thus, isolation to the mirror suspension stack. This is required due to the coupling between the vertical and horizontal axes due to the curvature of the Earth. This can be achieved through use of high mechanical Q materials, which are compatible with cryogenic cooling, such as crystalline silicon. However, such materials are brittle, posing further challenges for assembly/jointing and, more generally, for long-term robustness. Here, we report on experimental studies of the breaking strength of silicon at room temperature, via both tensile and 4-point flexural testing; and on the effects of various surface treatments and coatings on durability and strength. Single- and multi-layer DLC (diamond-like carbon) coatings, together with magnetron-sputtered silica and thermally-grown silica, are investigated, as are the effects of substrate preparation and argon plasma pre-treatment. Application of single- or multi-layer DLC coatings can significantly improve the failure stress of silicon flexures, in addition to improved robustness for handling (assessed through abrasion tests). Improvements of up to 80% in tensile strength, a twofold increase in flexural strength, in addition to a 6.4 times reduction in the vertical thermal noise contribution of the suspension stack at 10 Hz are reported (compared to current Advanced LIGO design). The use of silicon blade springs would also significantly reduce potential 'crackling noise' associated with the underlying discrete events associated with plastic deformation in loaded flexures

Supervised multivariate analysis of sequence groups to identify specificity determining residues

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Proteins that evolve from a common ancestor can change functionality over time, and it is important to be able identify residues that cause this change. In this paper we show how a supervised multivariate statistical method, Between Group Analysis (BGA), can be used to identify these residues from families of proteins with different substrate specifities using multiple sequence alignments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrate the usefulness of this method on three different test cases. Two of these test cases, the Lactate/Malate dehydrogenase family and Nucleotidyl Cyclases, consist of two functional groups. The other family, Serine Proteases consists of three groups. BGA was used to analyse and visualise these three families using two different encoding schemes for the amino acids.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This overall combination of methods in this paper is powerful and flexible while being computationally very fast and simple. BGA is especially useful because it can be used to analyse any number of functional classes. In the examples we used in this paper, we have only used 2 or 3 classes for demonstration purposes but any number can be used and visualised.</p

Marine Biodiversity in the Australian Region

The entire Australian marine jurisdictional area, including offshore and sub-Antarctic islands, is considered in this paper. Most records, however, come from the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around the continent of Australia itself. The counts of species have been obtained from four primary databases (the Australian Faunal Directory, Codes for Australian Aquatic Biota, Online Zoological Collections of Australian Museums, and the Australian node of the Ocean Biogeographic Information System), but even these are an underestimate of described species. In addition, some partially completed databases for particular taxonomic groups, and specialized databases (for introduced and threatened species) have been used. Experts also provided estimates of the number of known species not yet in the major databases. For only some groups could we obtain an (expert opinion) estimate of undiscovered species. The databases provide patchy information about endemism, levels of threat, and introductions. We conclude that there are about 33,000 marine species (mainly animals) in the major databases, of which 130 are introduced, 58 listed as threatened and an unknown percentage endemic. An estimated 17,000 more named species are either known from the Australian EEZ but not in the present databases, or potentially occur there. It is crudely estimated that there may be as many as 250,000 species (known and yet to be discovered) in the Australian EEZ. For 17 higher taxa, there is sufficient detail for subdivision by Large Marine Domains, for comparison with other National and Regional Implementation Committees of the Census of Marine Life. Taxonomic expertise in Australia is unevenly distributed across taxa, and declining. Comments are given briefly on biodiversity management measures in Australia, including but not limited to marine protected areas