Weighted Sums of Subexponential Random Variables and Asymptotic Dependence between Returns on Reinsurance Equities

Asymptotic tail probabilities for bivariate linear combinations of subexponential random variables are given. These results are applied to explain the joint movements of the stocks of reinsurers. Portfolio investment and retrocession practices in the reinsurance industry, for reasons of diversification, exposes different reinsurers to the same risks on both sides of their balance sheets. Assuming, in line with the industry practice that the risk drivers follow subexponential distributions, we derive (under mild conditions) when the reinsurer's equity returns are asymptotically dependent, exposing the industry to systemic risk

An Investigation Of The Autoignition Of Power Generation Gas Turbine Fuel Blends Using A Design Of Experiments Approach

Natural gas has grown in popularity as a fuel for power generation gas turbines. However, changes in fuel composition are a topic of concern since fuel variability can have a great impact on the reliability and performance of the burner design. In particular, autoignition of the premixed fuel and air prior to entering the main burner is a potential concern when using exotic fuel blends. To obtain much-needed data in this area, autoignition experiments for a wide range of likely fuel blends containing CH4 mixed with combinations of C2H6, C3H8, C4H10, C5H12, and H2 were performed in a high-pressure shock tube. However, testing every possible fuel blend combination and interaction was not feasible within a reasonable time and cost. Therefore, to predict the surface response over the complete mixture domain, a special experimental design was developed to significantly reduce the amount of \u27trials\u27 needed from 243 to only 41 using the Box-Behnkin factorial design methodology. Kinetics modeling was used to obtain numerical results for this matrix of fuel blends, setting the conditions at a temperature of 800 K and pressure of 17 atm. A further and successful attempt was made to reduce the 41-test matrix to a 21-test matrix. This was done using special mixture experimental techniques. The kinetics model was used to compare the smaller matrix to the expected results of the larger one. The new 21-test matrix produced a numerical correlation that agreed well with the results from the 41-test matrix, indicating that the smaller matrix would provide the same statistical information as the larger one with acceptable precision. iii After the experimental matrix was developed using the design of experiments approach, the physical experiments were performed in the shock tube. Long test times were created by tailoring the shock tube using a novel driver gas mixture, obtaining test times of 10 millisecond or more, which made experiments at low temperatures possible. Large discrepancies were found between the predicted results by numerical models and the actual experimental results. The main conclusion from the experiments is that the methane-based mixtures in this study enter a regime with a negative temperature coefficient when plotted in Arhennius form. This means that these mixtures are far more likely to ignite under conditions frequently encountered in a premixer, potentially creating hazardous situations. The experimental results were correlated as a function of the different species. It was found that the effect of higher-order hydrocarbon addition to methane is not as profound as seen at higher temperatures (\u3e1100 K). However, the ignition delay time could still be reduced by a factor two or more. It is therefore evident that potential autoignition could occur within the premixer, given the conditions as stated in this study

Neuro fuzzy control of the FES assisted freely swinging leg of paraplegic subjects

The authors designed a neuro fuzzy control strategy for control of cyclical leg movements of paraplegic subjects. The cyclical leg movements were specified by three `swing phase objectives', characteristic of natural human gait. The neuro fuzzy controller is a combination of a fuzzy logic controller and a neural network, which makes the controller self tuning and adaptive. Two experiments have been performed, in which the performance of the neuro fuzzy control strategy has been compared with conventional PID control strateg

A STUDY ON SPHERICAL EXPANDING FLAME SPEEDS OF METHANE, ETHANE, AND METHANE/ETHANE MIXTURES AT ELEVATED PRESSURES

High-pressure experiments and chemical kinetics modeling were performed for laminar spherically expanding flames for methane/air, ethane/air, methane/ethane/air and propane/air mixtures at pressures between 1 and 10 atm and equivalence ratios ranging from 0.7 to 1.3. All experiments were performed in a new flame speed facility capable of withstanding initial pressures up to 15 atm. The facility consists of a cylindrical pressure vessel rated up to 2200 psi. Vacuums down to 30 mTorr were produced before each experiment, and mixtures were created using the partial pressure method. Ignition was obtained by an automotive coil and a constant current power supply capable of reducing the spark energy close to the minimum ignition energy. Optical cine-photography was provided via a Z-type schlieren set up and a high-speed camera (2000 fps). A full description of the facility is given including a pressure rating and a computational conjugate heat transfer analysis predicting temperature rises at the walls. Additionally, a detailed uncertainty analysis revealed total uncertainty in measured flame speed of approximately +-0.7 cm/s. This study includes first-ever measurements of methane/ethane flame speeds at elevated pressures as well as unique high pressure ethane flame speed measurements. Three chemical kinetic models were used and compared against measured flame velocities. GRI 3.0 performed remarkably well even for high-pressure ethane flames. The C5 mechanism performed acceptably at low pressure conditions and under-predicted the experimental data at elevated pressures. Measured Markstein lengths of atmospheric methane/air flames were compared against values found in the literature. In this study, Markstein lengths increased for methane/air flames from fuel lean to fuel rich. A reverse trend was observed for ethane/air mixtures with the Markstein length decreasing from fuel lean to fuel rich conditions. Flame cellularity was observed for mixtures at elevated pressures. For both methane and ethane, hydrodynamic instabilities dominated at stoichiometric conditions. Flame acceleration was clearly visible and used to determine the onset of cellular instabilities. The onset of flame acceleration for each high-pressure experiment was recorded