High volumes of recent surgical admissions, time to surgery, and 60-day mortality

Aims: Few studies have investigated potential consequences of strained surgical resources. The aim of this cohort study was to assess whether a high proportion of concurrent acute surgical admissions, tying up hospital surgical capacity, may lead to delayed surgery and affect mortality for hip fracture patients. Methods: This study investigated time to surgery and 60-day post-admission death of patients 70 years and older admitted for acute hip fracture surgery in Norway between 2008 and 2016. The proportion of hospital capacity being occupied by newly admitted surgical patients was used as the exposure. Hip fracture patients admitted during periods of high proportion of recent admissions were compared with hip fracture patients admitted at the same hospital during the same month, on similar weekdays, and times of the day with fewer admissions. Results: Among 60,072 patients, mean age was 84.6 years (SD 6.8), 78% were females, and median time to surgery was 20 hours (IQR 11 to 29). Overall, 14% (8,464) were dead 60 days after admission. A high (75th percentile) proportion of recent surgical admission compared to a low (25th percentile) proportion resulted in 20% longer time to surgery (95% confidence interval (CI) 16 to 25) and 20% higher 60-day mortality (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.4). Conclusion: A high volume of recently admitted acute surgical patients, indicating probable competition for surgical resources, was associated with delayed surgery and increased 60-day mortality.publishedVersio

Hospitals' discharge tendency and risk of death - An analysis of 60,000 Norwegian hip fracture patients

Purpose: A reduction in the length of hospital stay may threaten patient safety. This study aimed to estimate the effect of organizational pressure to discharge on 60-day mortality among hip fracture patients. Patients and Methods: In this cohort study, hip fracture patients were analyzed as if they were enrolled in a sequence of trials for discharge. A hospital’s discharge tendency was defined as the proportion of patients with other acute conditions who were discharged on a given day. Because the hospital’s tendency to discharge would affect hip fracture patients in an essentially random manner, this exposure could be regarded as analogous to being randomized to treatment in a clinical trial. The study population consisted of 59,971 Norwegian patients with hip fractures, hospitalized between 2008 and 2016, aged 70 years and older. To calculate the hospital discharge tendency for a given day, we used data from all 5,013,773 other acute hospitalizations in the study period. Results: The probability of discharge among hip fracture patients increased by 5.5 percentage points (95% confidence interval (CI)=5.3– 5.7) per 10 percentage points increase in hospital discharges of patients with other acute conditions. The increased risk of death that could be attributed to a discharge from organizational causes was estimated to 3.7 percentage points (95% CI=1.4– 6.0). The results remained stable under different time adjustments, follow-up periods, and age cut-offs. Conclusion: This study showed that discharges from organizational causes may increase the risk of death among hip fracture patients.publishedVersio

Microvascular proliferation in luminal Aand basal-like breast cancer subtypes

Aims: The aims of this study were to examine microvessel density (MVD), proliferating MVD (pMVD) and Vascular Proliferation Index (VPI) in basal-like phenotype (BP) and luminal A subtypes of breast cancer and to study their prognostic value. Methods: Dual-colour immunohistochemistry for von Willebrand factor and Ki67 was done on sections from 62 luminal A and 62 BP tumours matched for grade and selected from 909 breast cancers previously reclassified into molecular subtypes. Associations between MVD, pMVD and VPI, molecular subtypes and breast cancer prognosis were estimated using linear regression and survival analyses. Results: Both pMVD (difference 1.9 microvessels/mm2 (p=0.002)) and VPI (difference 1.7 percentage points (p=0.014)) were higher in BP tumours compared with luminal A. No clear difference between subtypes was found for MVD. However, only MVD was associated with prognosis. HR for breast cancer death for all cases was 1.10 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.18) per 10 vessels increase. Among luminal A tumours, HR was 1.22 per 10 vessels increase (p<0.001) and in BP it was 1.04 (p=0.37). Conclusions: High MVD was associated with poor prognosis in luminal A, but not in BP cancers. Vascular proliferation was higher in BP, indicating a more active angiogenesis than in luminal A tumours. The luminal A subgroup comprised mostly histopathological grade 3 cancers in this selected series, and further studies are needed to clarify whether MVD provides additional prognostic information for luminal A tumours irrespective of grade. This may contribute to stratification of this large group of patients and may aid in identifying tumours with a particularly good prognosis.acceptedVersio

How do busy hospital circumstances affect mortality and readmission within 60 days : A cohort study of 680 000 acute admissions in Norway

Author's accepted version (postprint).This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Elsevier in Health Policy on 21/5/2022.Available online: doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2022.05.008acceptedVersio

Molecular Subtypes of Breast Cancer: Long-term Incidence Trends and Prognostic Differences

Background: Secular trends in incidence and prognosis of molecular breast cancer subtypes are poorly described. We studied long-term trends in a population of Norwegian women born 1886–1977. Methods: A total of 52,949 women were followed for breast cancer incidence, and 1,423 tumors were reclassified into molecular subtypes using IHC and in situ hybridization. We compared incidence rates among women born 1886–1928 and 1929–1977, estimated age-specific incidence rate ratios (IRR), and performed multiple imputations to account for unknown subtype. Prognosis was compared for women diagnosed before 1995 and in 1995 or later, estimating cumulative risk of death and HRs. Results: Between 50 and 69 years of age, incidence rates of Luminal A and Luminal B (HER2−) were higher among women born in 1929 or later, compared with before 1929 [IRRs 50–54 years; after imputations: 3.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8–6.9 and 2.5; 95% CI, 1.2–5.2, respectively], with no clear differences for other subtypes. Rates of death were lower in women diagnosed in 1995 or later, compared to before 1995, for Luminal A (HR 0.4; 95% CI, 0.3–0.5), Luminal B (HER2−; HR 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3–0.7), and Basal phenotype (HR 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2–0.9). Conclusions: We found a strong secular incidence increase restricted to Luminal A and Luminal B (HER2−) subtypes, combined with a markedly improved prognosis for these subtypes and for the Basal phenotype.acceptedVersio

Molecular subtypes, histopathological grade and survival in a historic cohort of breast cancer patients

Molecular subtyping of breast cancer may provide additional prognostic information regarding patient outcome. However, its clinical significance remains to be established. In this study, the main aims were to discover whether reclassification of breast cancer into molecular subtypes provides more precise information regarding outcome compared to conventional histopathological grading and to study breast cancer-specific survival in the different molecular subtypes. Cases of breast cancer occurring in a cohort of women born between 1886 and 1928 with long-term follow-up were included in the study. Tissue microarrays were constructed from archival formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue from 909 cases. Using immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridisation as surrogates for gene expression analyses, all cases were reclassified into the following molecular subtypes: Luminal A; Luminal B (HER2−); Luminal B (HER2+); HER2 subtype; Basal phenotype; and five negative phenotype. Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used in the analyses. During the first 5 years after diagnosis, there were significant differences in prognosis according to molecular subtypes with the best survival for the Luminal A subtype and the worst for HER2 and five negative phenotype. In this historic cohort of women with breast cancer, differences in breast cancer-specific survival according to subtype occur almost exclusively amongst the histopathological grade 2 tumours. From 5 years after time of diagnosis until the end of follow-up, there appears to be no difference in survival according to molecular subtype or histopathological grade.publishedVersio

Pregnancy complications in last pregnancy and mothers’ long-term cardiovascular mortality: does the relation differ from that of complications in first pregnancy? A population-based study

Background Women who experience complications in first pregnancy are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) later in life. Little corresponding knowledge is available for complications in later pregnancies. Therefore, we assessed complications (preeclampsia, preterm birth, and offspring small for gestational age) in first and last pregnancies and the risk of long-term maternal CVD death, taking women´s complete reproduction into account. Data and methods We linked data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway to the national Cause of Death Registry. We followed women whose first birth took place during 1967–2013, from the date of their last birth until death, or December 31st 2020, whichever occurred first. We analysed risk of CVD death until 69 years of age according to any complications in last pregnancy. Using Cox regression analysis, we adjusted for maternal age at first birth and level of education. Results Women with any complications in their last or first pregnancy were at higher risk of CVD death than mothers with two-lifetime births and no pregnancy complications (reference). For example, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for women with four births and any complications only in the last pregnancy was 2.85 (95% CI, 1.93–4.20). If a complication occurred in the first pregnancy only, the aHR was 1.74 (1.24–2.45). Corresponding hazard ratios for women with two births were 1.82 (CI, 1.59–2.08) and 1.41 (1.26–1.58), respectively. Conclusions The risk for CVD death was higher among mothers with complications only in their last pregnancy compared to women with no complications, and also higher compared to mothers with a complication only in their first pregnancy.publishedVersio

Polymorphisms in the TP53-MDM2-MDM4-axis in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Background In addition to being a tumour suppressor, TP53 is a suppressor of inflammation, and dysfunction of this gene has been related to autoimmune diseases. Patients with autoimmunity, such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have an increased risk of certain cancers, like lymphomas, indicating that some underlying mechanisms may modulate risk of both cancers and autoimmunity. Methods We genotyped 5 common genetic variants in TP53 and its main regulators MDM2 and MDM4 in a sample of 942 RA patients and 3,747 healthy controls, and mined previously published GWAS-data, to assess the potential impact of these variants on risk of RA. Results For the TP53 Arg72Pro polymorphism (rs1042522), MDM4 SNP34091 (rs4245739) and MDM2 SNP285C (rs117039649), we found no association to risk of RA. For MDM2 SNP309 (rs2279744), the minor G-allele was associated with a reduced risk of RA (OR: 0.87; CI: 0.79–0.97). This association was also seen in genotype models (OR: 0.86; CI: 0.74–0.99 and OR: 0.79; CI 0.63–0.99; dominant and recessive model, respectively), but was not validated in a large GWAS data set. For MDM2 del1518 (rs3730485), the minor del-allele was associated with an increased risk of RA in the dominant model (OR: 1.18; CI: 1.02–1.38). Stratifying RA cases and controls into phylogenetic subgroups according to the combined genotypes of all three MDM2 polymorphism, we found individuals with the del158-285–309 genotype del/ins-G/G-T/T to have an increased risk of RA as compared to those with the ins/ins-G/G-G/G genotype (OR: 1.56; CI: 1.18–2.06) indicating opposite effects of the del1518 del-allele and the SNP309 G-allele. Conclusion We find a potential association between the MDM2 del1518 variant and RA, and indications that combinatorial genotypes and haplotypes in the MDM2 locus may be related to RA.publishedVersio

Pre-eclampsia, Soluble fms-like Tyrosine Kinase 1, and the Risk of Reduced Thyroid Function: Nested Case-Control and Population Based Study

Objective: To determine if pre-eclampsia is associated with reduced thyroid function during and after pregnancy. Design: Nested case-control study during pregnancy and population based follow-up study after pregnancy. Setting: Calcium for Pre-eclampsia Prevention trial of healthy pregnant nulliparous women in the United States during 1992-5, and a Norwegian population based study (Nord-Trondelag Health Study or HUNT-2) during 1995-7 with linkage to the medical birth registry of Norway. Participants: All 141 women (cases) in the Calcium for Pre-eclampsia Prevention trial with serum measurements before 21 weeks’ gestation (baseline) and after onset of pre-eclampsia (before delivery), 141 normotensive controls with serum measurements at similar gestational ages, and 7121 women in the Nord-Trondelag Health Study whose first birth had occurred in 1967 or later and in whom serum levels of thyroid stimulating hormone had been subsequently measured. Main outcome measures: Thyroid function tests and human chorionic gonadotrophin and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 concentrations in the Calcium for Pre-eclampsia Prevention cohort and odds ratios for levels of thyroid stimulating hormone above the reference range, according to pre-eclampsia status in singleton pregnancies before the Nord-Trondelag Health Study. Results: In predelivery specimens of the Calcium for Pre-eclampsia Prevention cohort after the onset of pre-eclampsia, thyroid stimulating hormone levels increased 2.42 times above baseline compared with a 1.48 times increase in controls. The ratio of the predelivery to baseline ratio of cases to that of the controls was 1.64 (95% confidence interval 1.29 to 2.08). Free triiodothyronine decreased more in the women with pre-eclampsia than in the controls (case ratio to control ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.99). The predelivery specimens but not baseline samples from women with pre-eclampsia were significantly more likely than those from controls to have concentrations of thyroid stimulating hormone above the reference range (adjusted odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 4.4). Both in women who developed pre-eclampsia and in normotensive controls the increase in thyroid stimulating hormone concentration between baseline and predelivery specimens was strongly associated with increasing quarters of predelivery soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (P for trend 0.002 and 3.5 mIU/l). In particular, they were more likely to have high concentrations of thyroid stimulating hormone without thyroid peroxidase antibodies (adjusted odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 5.0), suggesting hypothyroid function in the absence of an autoimmune process. This association was especially strong (5.8, 1.3 to 25.5) if pre-eclampsia had occurred in both the first and the second pregnancies. Conclusion: Increased serum concentration of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 during pre-eclampsia is associated with subclinical hypothyroidism during pregnancy. Pre-eclampsia may also predispose to reduced thyroid function in later years