Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment

Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. Our objective is to develop and test a method to identify such pathways by including dynamics from natural variability and the interaction between the water system and society. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Our approach is to explore pathways using multiple realisations of transient scenarios with an Integrated Assessment Meta Model (IAMM). This paper presents the first application of the method using a hypothetical case study. The case study shows how to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways. With the pathways it is possible to identify opportunities, threats, timing and sequence of policy options, which can be used by policymakers to develop water management roadmaps into the future. By including the dynamics between the water system and society, the influence of uncertainties in both systems becomes clearer. The results show, among others, that climate variability rather than climate change appears to be important for taking decisions in water management

The South African HIV epidemic, reflected by nine provincial epidemics, 1990 -1996

Objectives. To determine by serological examination the annual point prevalence rates of infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in representative samples of subjects in the nine provinces of South Africa, 1990 - 1996.Design. Annual cross-sectional point prevalence surveys conducted in October/November of each year.Setting. South Africa, induding areas that used to be known as self-governing and independent ational States.Subjects. Pregnant women in the age group 15 - 49 years who attend antenatal clinic services provided by the public health services, and who act as an indicator group of the HIV epidemic among the heterosexually active population.Outcome measures. HIV positivity as determined serologically; done consistently over several years, this serves to monitor the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the nine provinces of South Africa,Results. Empirical data gained from seven annual, consecutive countrywide surveys demonstrate a wide geographical variation in the point prevalence rates of HIV infection. In October/November 1996 the point prevalence rates (%) were as follows: Western Cape 3.09, Northern Cape 657, Northern Province 7.96, Eastern Cape 8.10, Gauteng 15.49, Mpurnalanga 15.77, Free State 17.49, KwaZulu-Natal 19.90 and orth West 25.13. The weighted national average was 14.17%. There are indications that some of the provinces (KwaZulu-Natal and possibly Mpumalanga) might have passed a point of inflection suggesting deceleration in their specific rates of increase. These results are, however, counterbalanced by the exponential growth still being experienced in provinces with large populations such as Gauteng and the Eastern Cape. It is concluded that the net effect of these divergent trends currently affects the national figure only marginally. A major deflection from the exponential growth patterns seen hitherto can be anticipated only once all or most of the highly populated provinces have traversed their respective points of inflection.The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the provinces. The combination of these provincial epidemics describes the initial exponential phase of the epidemic

National HIV surveillance in South Africa - 1993 - 1995

Objective. To determine the point prevalence of HIV infection by serological examination which, performed consistently over several years, serves to monitor the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in South Africa.Design. Annual cross-sectional surveys conducted nationally in October/November.Setting. South Africa, including areas that used to be known as self-governing and independent national states.Subjects. Pregnant women in the age group 15 - 49 years who attend antenatal clinic services provided by the public health services.Outcome measures. HIV positivity as determined serologically.Results. The rising trend found previously continues: HIV positivity in South Africa was found to be 4.25% in 1993, 7.57% in 1994 and 10.44% in 1995. In 1995 the highest rate was recorded in KwaZulu-Natal (18.23%) and the lowest in the Western Cape (1.66%).On the basis of certain assumptions it is estimated that these rates are indicative of 1.7 million sexually active adults having been infected with HIV by October/ November 1995, plus a cumulative total of 40 000 infants. Women in their 20s had the highest age-specific prevalence rates, viz. 13.12% (20 - 24 years) and 11.03% (25 - 29 years). HIV positivity in pregnant teenagers was 9.5%.Conclusions. The HIV epidemic is firmly established in South Africa with a wide variation in provincial prevalence rates. Of particular public health significance is the finding of a high and rising prevalence rate in pregnant teenagers. The observed prevalence rate for 1995 is lower than expected, giving rise to guarded hope that provinces with the highest recorded rates are moving away from the exponential growth found hitherto

The Effect of a Reduction in Phosphate Application on Soil Phosphate Pools

Excessive use of manure and fertilisers in western Europe has led to high phosphorus (P) contents in many agricultural soils leading to environmental P losses by overland flow, subsurface drainage and leaching to groundwater. To stop phosphate build up in the soil and leaching to surface and ground waters, the Dutch government is gradually reducing allowable phosphate application on grassland from 130 kg/ha per year in 2005 to 90 kg/ha per year in 2015. This will lead to a reduction of the phosphate surplus from 40 in 2005 to 0 kg/ha per year. To investigate the impact of reductions in application rates on soil phosphate, leaching and grass production, a field experiment was started in 1997 on four dairy farms on two sandy soils, a peat and a clay soil

Het achterwege laten van ingrepen bij vleeskuikenouderdieren

Door het Ingrepenbesluit zijn ingrepen bij vleeskuikenouderdieren op termijn verboden. Praktijkonderzoek Pluimveehouderij is daarom in 1998 gestart met onderzoek naar het effect van het achterwege laten van ingrepen bij vleeskuikenouderdieren. De resultaten van twee proeven worden in dit rapport beschreven

National HIV surveillance - South Africa, 1990 - 1992

The findings of three annual surveys of women attending antenatal clinics (at the end of 1990,1991 and 1992) are presented here. These surveys form part of the National HIV Surveillance Programme. This programme is probably the most usefulmeans of monitoring the trend and distribution of the epidemic. In all strata, a consistent rise in the HIV prevalence rate was found; it doubled almost every 12 months. The point prevalence rate in antenatal clinic attenders in South Africa increased from 0,76% in 1990 to 1,49% in 1991 and 1,49% in 1992. The prevalence rate was found to vary widely geographically: Natal/KwaZulu formed the spearhead of the epidemic with a 4,77% rate of HIV infection in 1992. Venda and the Capeappeared to be the least affected with rates of 0,64% and 0,66% respectively

Carbohydrate metabolism in twin pregnancy

Carbohydrate metabolism was evaluated in 26 women with a twin pregnancy and 26 women with a singleton pregnancy. The groups were similar in respect of age, parity and gestational age. Each woman had an oral glucose tolerance test. Nosignificant differences in venous blood sugar values or insulin responses were found between singleton and twin pregnancies

Invloed vermindering ammoniakemissie op geuremissie uit pluimveestallen

De ministeries van LNV en VROM hebben besloten dat in de toekomst uitgegaan moet worden van geurnormen die zijn gebaseerd op gemeten waarden. Naar aanleiding daarvan is het Praktijkonderzoek Pluimveehouderij begonnen met onderzoek naar het effect van het verminderen van de ammoniakemissie op de geuremissie. Uit deze eerste oriënterende proef bleek dat het reduceren van de ammoniakemissie niet automatisch een vermindering geeft van de geuremissie

Risk factors for patellofemoral pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

“This article has been accepted for publication in British Journal of Sports Medicine 2019 following peer review, and the Version of Record can be accessed online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2017-098890.”BACKGROUND: Patellofemoral pain (PFP) is a prevalent condition commencing at various points throughout life. We aimed to provide an evidence synthesis concerning predictive variables for PFP, to aid development of preventative interventions. METHODS: We searched Medline, Web of Science and SCOPUS until February 2017 for prospective studies investigating at least one potential risk factor for future PFP. Two independent reviewers appraised methodological quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We conducted meta-analysis where appropriate, with standardised mean differences (SMD) and risk ratios calculated for continuous and nominal scaled data. RESULTS: This review included 18 studies involving 4818 participants, of whom 483 developed PFP (heterogeneous incidence 10%). Three distinct subgroups (military recruits, adolescents and recreational runners) were identified. Strong to moderate evidence indicated that age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), body fat and Q angle were not risk factors for future PFP. Moderate evidence indicated that quadriceps weakness was a risk factor for future PFP in the military, especially when normalised by BMI (SMD -0.69, CI -1.02, -0.35). Moderate evidence indicated that hip weakness was not a risk factor for future PFP (multiple pooled SMDs, range -0.09 to -0.20), but in adolescents, moderate evidence indicated that increased hip abduction strength was a risk factor for future PFP (SMD 0.71, CI 0.39, 1.04). CONCLUSIONS: This review identified multiple variables that did not predict future PFP, but quadriceps weakness in military recruits and higher hip strength in adolescents were risk factors for PFP. Identifying modifiable risk factors is an urgent priority to improve prevention and treatment outcomes

Українська шляхта між польським та українським етносами

Appearance and existence of the Ukrainian gentry relates to the traditions of Polish political culture, so during the whole period of its life it was between the Ukrainian and the Polish ethnic groups. Polanisation of the Ukrainian gentry begins at the date when some of the Ukrainian territories become a part of Poland and strengthens after Cossack revolution in the middle and at the end of the 16th century. Especially this process becomes effective at the beginning of the 18th century when a great part of gentry from other Polish lands migrates to Pravoberezhia (right-banked Ukraine). Nevertheless, having captured upper class and partially middle class of the Ukrainian gentry, polanisation mainly influenced consciousness and less religion of the lower class of the Ukrainian gentry. As for ethnoculture and language local gentry was mostly Ukrainian and it assimilated numerous Polish gentlemen-immigrants