Real-time data assimilation in urban rainfall-runoff models

Open Access journalCopyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.12th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI2013Real-time control of urban rainfall-runoff systems can help limit flooding, and minimise combined sewerage overflow. To improve the ability of runoff models to inform this control decision, a data assimilation methodology is presented where downstream prediction errors are used to update upstream model states at an earlier time step. The methodology led to improved, ‘corrected’ predictions after model re-propagation to the current time, and improved discharge forecasts. Assimilation performance was sensitive to the update lag time, and the presence of control structures in the model, which affect the ability of assimilation procedures to map observation information to state space.European Commission Seventh Framewor

Interactive 3D visualisation of flood impact to critical infrastructure

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available via the link in this recordIn the paper, we present an innovative application that allows stakeholders to interactively visualise the evolution of flooding and its impact to critical infrastructure using a standard web browser without any other software requirement. The system can demonstrate not only the maximum flood extent on a plain map, but also spatiotemporal varied information in 3D for any locations within the modelling domain that a user specifies. It can also be linked to online real-time flood modelling and risk assessment tools to provide risk-based early warning such that decision makers can prioritise emergency response actions to better protect critical infrastructure during extreme flood events.The work presented in this paper was partially funded by the ongoing H2020 EC project EU-CIRCLE (2015-2018), GA 653824

3D visualisation tool for improving the resilience to urban and coastal flooding in Torbay, UK

This is the final version of the article. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Torbay, located in South West England, UK, is one of the Case Studies on the EU-funded project EU-CIRCLE, which is aimed at enhancing resilience of Critical Infrastructures (CI) to natural hazards. The region includes three urban centres (Torquay, Paignton and Brixham) and hosts more than 3 million tourists every year that contribute over £450 million to local economy. However, flooding, including coastal, fluvial and pluvial, has been a major threat to the area with more than 15 major incidents occurring since 1999. Rising sea levels, combined with increasing rainfall intensity, linked to climate change, are expected to exacerbate the problem. Better adaptation strategies are needed to safeguard CIs and services while improving resilience to climate hazards. EU-CIRCLE partners are engaged in a review of the existing capacity of flood defenses and the drainage systems in Torbay. To enhance the risk communication with the stakeholders, we adopted a high performance flood model to analyse the flood risk to Cis under a wide range of scenarios. The results are integrated into an innovative 3D visualization tool, showing the progress over time of any flood scenario in the region, via a fully interactive interface allowing stakeholders to better understand flood impacts to CIs.The work presented in this paper was partially funded by the ongoing EC H2020 EU-CIRCLE (GA 653824) and the FP7 PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions, GA 603663) projects

A Capability Maturity Model for the Circular Economy: An Agri-food Perspective

This is the final version. The presentation is available via the link in this recordEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

A serious game designed to explore and understand the complexities of flood mitigation options in Urban-Rural Catchments

Flood prevention in mixed urban-rural environments has become a greater concern due to climate change. It is a complex task requiring both efficient management of resources and the involvement of multiple stakeholders from diverse backgrounds. As Serious Games (games used for purposes other than mere entertainment) have emerged as an effective means of engaging stakeholders, this work proposes a new Serious Game applied to flood mitigation in the village of Millbrook in the UK. Results show that the game has both an informative and a transformative effect (statistical significance levels from 0.01 to 0.05), improving participants' understanding of the problem, and helping them to find a new and improved approach to flood risk management in Millbrook, with the potential to improve resilience significantly. Furthermore, the game successfully transformed participants into "citizen scientists" in the purest sense of the term-it led them to use inductive reasoning from data produced by the game to correctly confirm or reject hypotheses and resulted in more than 70% of the participants revising their initial assumptions. Interestingly, the game instigated the formation of new local partnerships and helped to prioritize the discussion of natural flood management measures in Millbrook Parish Council meetings

Multi-stakeholder development of a serious game to explore the water-energy-food-land-climate nexus: The SIM4NEXUS approach

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Water, energy, food, land and climate form a tightly-connected nexus in which actions on one sector impact other sectors, creating feedbacks and unanticipated consequences. This is especially because at present, much scientific research and many policies are constrained to single discipline/sector silos that are often not interacting (e.g., water-related research/policy). However, experimenting with the interaction and determining how a change in one sector could impact another may require unreasonable time frames, be very difficult in practice and may be potentially dangerous, triggering any one of a number of unanticipated side-effects. Current modelling often neglects knowledge from practice. Therefore, a safe environment is required to test the potential cross-sectoral implications of policy decisions in one sector on other sectors. Serious games offer such an environment by creating realistic 'simulations', where long-term impacts of policies may be tested and rated. This paper describes how the ongoing (2016-2020) Horizon2020 project SIM4NEXUS will develop serious games investigating potential plausible cross-nexus implications and synergies due to policy interventions for 12 multi-scale case studies ranging from regional to global. What sets these games apart is that stakeholders and partners are involved in all aspects of the modelling definition and process, from case study conceptualisation, quantitative model development including the implementation and validation of each serious game. Learning from playing a serious game is justified by adopting a proof-of-concept for a specific regional case study in Sardinia (Italy). The value of multi-stakeholder involvement is demonstrated, and critical lessons learned for serious game development in general are presented.The work described in this paper has been conducted within the project SIM4NEXUS. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 689150 SIM4NEXUS

Assessing and visualising hazard impacts to enhance the resilience of Critical Infrastructures to urban flooding

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordThe design, construction and maintenance of Critical Infrastructures (CI) is commonly based on standards that are rigorous, so as to withstand any climate or weather-linked pressures. However, due to climate change, climate characteristics may shift, resulting in increased frequency/magnitude of potential failures, or exposure to new unknown risks. As vital components for the normal functioning of modern societies, the resilience of CIs under climate stressors encompasses their structural integrity, their operational elements, and their capacity to maximize business output. In this work, we propose an integrated and participatory methodological approach to enhance the resilience of interconnected CIs to urban flooding under climate change, by assessing the risk and introducing adaptation measures. The main objectives of the proposed methodology and approach are: (i) to provide scientific evidence for better understanding of how future climate regimes might affect normal operation of interconnected CI in urban areas during their lifespan; (ii) to assess the cost-effectiveness of different adaptation measures; (iii) to involve local stakeholders and operators in the co-design of the approach, as well as the assessment and the evaluation of adaptation measures; (iv) to combine computational modelling with advanced 3D visualisation techniques for effectively engaging stakeholders in decision making; (v) to include risk assessment and damage functions co-designed by end-users and local stakeholders; (vi) to integrate all of the aforementioned components in a specifically designed cloud platform as a Decision Support System for end-users, (vii) to validate the DSS by the end users and local stakeholders. The paper presents the computational background and tools. Additionally, it describes a Case Study in Torbay, UK, where the full methodology and the proposed participatory approach have been applied, with all the specifics, i.e., the scenarios of extreme flooding, the numerical and visualization results, the response of the stakeholders and the evaluation of selected adaptation measures.European CommissionEuropean Union FP7Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

A modelling testbed to demonstrate the circular economy of water

This is the final version. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record. Data availability: Data will be made available on request.Climate change poses significant challenges in terms of water scarcity, environmental crisis, and economic uncertainty. This situation drives an increasing need to pursue more sustainable futures and to conserve and maximise the use of resources whenever possible. The EU-funded H2020 NextGen project aimed to boost sustainability using new and novel technologies and approaches implemented within the water cycle, and to maximise the efficient use of water and water-embedded resources. To facilitate and communicate the potential benefits of such technologies, NextGen developed Serious Games (SGs), enabled by underlying System Dynamic Models (SDMs), for demonstrating how interactions between water, energy, and materials/embedded resources within the urban water cycle can be utilised in the context of the Circular Economy of water. As part of a fast-track development process, a testbed dubbed “Toy Town” was developed that encompasses a range of technologies and options that provides a demonstrable framework that can later be refined and modified accordingly for other case studies. The underlying SDM driving the SG is built using the Julia programming language. The testbed incorporates a range of components, including water-saving and water-reuse technologies, stormwater management, and wastewater treatment systems. The SDM acts fundamentally as a mass-balance model tracking over time volumetric flows of water/wastewater and the concentrations/dilution of pollutants/material within the urban water cycle. A variety of water use, water reuse and wastewater treatment components can be tested within this model to maximise the resource potential of the water and material moving through the cycle. The paper focuses on an extreme drought scenario and highlights the benefits of a modelling testbed for exploring potential technological solutions for managing the urban water cycle and how such solutions can be employed in the context of the circular economy of water. The NextGen SG thus has the potential to improve stakeholders’ understanding of the implementation of novel technologies in the water cycle and the benefits that could be accrued by such stakeholder groups.European Commissio

The Nexus approach for water utilities: A case study from South West UK

This is the author accepted manuscript.South West Water (SWW)European Union Horizon 202

A participatory hybrid decision support modelling framework for industrial symbiosis

This is the final version