The severe thunderstorm of 4 October 2007 in Mallorca: an observational study

During the afternoon of 4 October 2007, a thunderstorm swept across the Island of Mallorca from southwest to northeast. Strong straight-line winds (up to 30 m/s) and heavy rain (rates up to 100 mm/h) were registered accompanying the storm. Tornadoes with an estimated intensity of F2–F3 developed nearby the city of Palma, severely affecting industrial installations. One person was killed by the impact of heavy debris while more than 10 million € in damages were attributed to the event in the industrial area only. The observed evolution of temperature, humidity, wind and pressure, as well as the sequence of radar images, reveal that a squall line was initially organized over the sea and then moved north-eastwards at an estimated speed of around 80 km/h. This paper presents an analysis of the event from an observational point of view. The aim of the study is to contribute to the characterization of these rare events in the Western Mediterranean by analyzing the observational information available for this particular extreme event. The diagnosis is aimed at helping forecasters to identify this kind of organized deep convective events and being able to issue timely warnings. The synoptic scenario shows warm and moist advection at low levels over Balearics and an upper-level trough over mainland Spain. This situation is known to be prone to deep convection in Mediterranean Spain in autumn. Radiosonde ascents from Murcia and Palma show convective instability at mid levels that can conduce to develop convection if appropriate ascents occur. A plausible lifting mechanism to trigger convection is attributed to large amplitude gravity waves, registered as short-period pressure oscillations by surface barographs

A deep cyclone of African origin over the Western Mediterranean: diagnosis and numerical simulation

International audienceFrom 19 to 22 December 1979, a deep cyclone evolved over the Western Mediterranean. Gusty winds of more than 30 m/s, as well as a strong pressure decrease to about 990 hPa were recorded in Palma de Mallorca (Balearic Islands, Spain). ECMWF analyses are used for a diagnosis and numerical study of the case. Sensitivity experiments using the HIRLAM model are performed to assess the role of the surface sensible heat flux, latent heat release and orography on the genesis and evolution of the cyclone. At synoptic scale, the situation is governed by the instability of an upper-level short wave. The cyclone developed within a notable baroclinic environment, which resulted from a cold advection from the northwest towards North Africa. The baroclinicity at first stages of the cyclogenesis is quantified by means of the Eady model. At latter stages, the evolution of the potential vorticity structures at high levels reveals a wide tropopause fold over the cyclone, as well as the presence of a strong anomaly associated with the low-level system. Sensitivity experiments reveal a notable cyclogenetic role of the latent heat release throughout the atmosphere in the deepening of the low, whereas no significant effect of the surface sensible heat flux is obtained for the simulation interval. On the other hand, an unusual cyclolytic role can be attributed to the northern ranges of the Mediterranean basin. Effectively, the low enlargement and deepening is constrained by a "wall effect", which is a consequence of the interaction of the cyclonic flow and those northern mountainous systems

Towards a climatology of sensitivities of Mediterranean high impact weather ? first approach

International audienceDuring recent years, great interest has grown within the operational weather community on the adaptable component of observational networks. Decisions regarding where to deploy new observations of special value under threatening weather, or regarding permanent changes in observational strategies need support from sensitivity studies that determine areas where the addition of observations would optimally improve the skill of numerical predictions. Within the context of the MEDEX project (http://medex.inm.uib.es), the sensitivities of a collection of severe weather episodes in the Mediterranean have been computed using the MM5 Adjoint Modeling system. Various approaches are explored trying to summarize the results for the diversity of cases that produce high impact weather (HIW; mainly heavy rain and strong winds) in the Mediterranean region. A first attempt uses an objective classification of the trajectories of the most intense cyclone types from the ERA-40 reanalyses. Sensitivities are then computed for each group of frequent trajectories, providing a prototype sensitivity field for each of the most frequent intense cyclones in the Mediterranean. However, a large portion of HIW episodes in the Mediterranean are not linked to significantly intense cyclones within the climatology. Consequently, a subjective classification of HIW events is also performed and the sensitivity fields for an example case is shown to complete the study. Although the sensitive areas for Mediterranean HIW are not particularly confined, it is remarkable how poorly sampled areas by the regular observing networks such as North Africa and the eastern North-Atlantic are highlighted in the results

Numerical study of the October 2000 torrential precipitation event over eastern Spain: analysis of the synoptic-scale stationarity

International audienceA torrential precipitation event affected eastern Spain during 21 to 24 October 2000. Total accumulated rainfall higher than 500 mm was registered at some locations, with values up to 300 mm in a 24-h period. The synoptic-scale charts for these days show the presence of a cold cutoff low aloft, south of the Iberian Peninsula, as a part of an W-blocking structure over Europe. At low levels, persistent easterly winds, established between a dominant anticyclone over eastern Europe and a cyclone over Morocco, are found over the western Mediterranean throughout the entire period. Satellite images show the advance and breaking away of a trough, with an associated cold front, over the Iberian Peninsula, which resulted in the cutoff low formation. Later, scattered convective cells are detected along the eastern Spanish coast during more than 3 days. Numerical simulations reveal that the convective environment was developed by the low-level advection of warm and moist air from central Mediterranean, being charged of moisture by evaporation from the sea. Sensitivity runs confirm that the synoptic-scale persistent low-level easterly flow, and specifically, the presence of a low level jet, was crucial for the subsynoptic processes leading to the long lasting torrential rainfall over the exposed terrains of eastern Spain. The stagnancy of the low-level flow is attributed to the quasi-stationary characteristics of the upper level cutoff low located south of the Iberian Peninsula. Experiments with modified upper-level potential vorticity distributions reveal that slight deviations from the observed configuration result in enhanced mobility of the low-level flow pattern, and thereby a reduction of the precipitation persistence. This suggests the major importance of a correct representation in the model initial conditions of the intensity and location of the upper level features, in order to obtain valuable numerical forecasts of these heavy rainfall events

Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the Western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance

International audienceThe HYDROPTIMET case studies 9-10/06/2000 Catalogne, 8-9/09/2002 Cévennes and 24-26/11/2002 Piémont encompass prototype flash-flood situations in the western Mediterranean, attending to the relevant synoptic and mesoscale signatures identified on the meteorological charts. A prominent mid-tropospheric trough or cut-off low can be identified in all events prior and during the period of heavy rains, which clearly served as the precursor agent for the onset of the flash-flood conditions and the cyclogenesis at low levels. Being aware of the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance and the necessity to cope with it within the operational context when attempting to issue short to mid-range numerical weather predictions of these high impact weather events, a systematic exploration of the predictability of the three selected case studies, subject to uncertainties in the representation of the upper-level precursor disturbance, is carried out in this paper by means of numerical simulations

Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the Western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance: the HYDROPTIMET case studies

International audienceThe HYDROPTIMET case studies (9?10 June 2000 Catalogne, 8?9 September 2002 Cévennes and 24?26 November 2002 Piémont) appear to encompass a sort of prototype flash-flood situations in the western Mediterranean attending to the relevant synoptic and mesoscale signatures identified on the meteorological charts. In Catalogne, the convective event was driven by a low-pressure system of relatively small dimensions developed over the mediterranean coast of Spain that moved into southern France. For Cévennes, the main circulation pattern was a synoptic-scale Atlantic low which induced a persistent southerly low-level jet (LLJ) over the western Mediterranean, strengthened by the Alps along its western flank, which guaranteed continuous moisture supply towards southern France where the long-lived, quasistationary convective system developed. The long Piémont episode, very representative of the most severe alpine flash flood events, shares some similarities with the Cévennes situation during its first stage in that it was controlled by a southerly moist LLJ associated with a large-scale disturbance located to the west. However, these circulation features were transient aspects and during the second half of the episode the situation was dominated by a cyclogenesis process over the Mediterranean which gave place to a mesoscale-size depression at surface that acted to force new heavy rain over the slopes of the Alps and maritime areas. That is, the Piémont episode can be catalogued as of mixed type with regard to the responsible surface disturbance, evolving from a large-scale pattern with remote action (like Cévennes) to a mesoscale pattern with local action (like Catalogne). A prominent mid-tropospheric trough or cut-off low can be identified in all events prior and during the period of heavy rain, which clearly served as the precursor agent for the onset of the flash-flood conditions and the cyclogenesis at low-levels. Being aware of the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance and the necessity to cope with it within the operational context when attempting to issue short to mid-range numerical weather predictions of these high impact weather events, a systematic exploration of the predictability of the three selected case studies subject to uncertainties in the representation of the upper-level precursor disturbance is carried out in this paper. The study is based on an ensemble of mesoscale numerical simulations of each event with the MM5 non-hydrostatic model after perturbing in a systematic way the upper-level disturbance, in the sense of displacing slightly this disturbance upstream/downstream along the zonal direction and intensifying/weakening its amplitude. These perturbations are guided by a previous application of the MM5-adjoint model, which consistently shows high sensitivities of the dynamical control of the heavy rain to the flow configuration about the upper-level disturbance on the day before, thus confirming the precursor characteristics of this agent. The perturbations are introduced to the initial conditions by applying a potential vorticity (PV) inversion procedure to the positive PV anomaly associated with the upper-level disturbance, and then using the inverted fields (wind, temperature and geopotential) to modify under a physically consistent balance the model initial fields. The results generally show that the events dominated by mesoscale low-level disturbances (Catalogne and last stage of the Piémont episode) are very sensitive to the initial uncertainties, such that the heavy rain location and magnitude are in some of the experiments strongly changed in response to the "forecast errors" of the cyclone trajectory, intensity, shape and translational speed. In contrast, the other situations (Cévennes and initial stage of the Piémont episode), dominated by a larger scale system wich basically acts to guarantee the establishment and persistence of the southerly LLJ towards the southern France-north Italy orography, exhibit much higher predictability. That is, the slight modifications in the LLJ direction and intensity encompassed by the ensemble of perturbed forecasts are less critical with respect to the heavy precipitation potential and affected area

Potential of stochastic methods for improving convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of extreme events over the western Mediterranean

The design of convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems capable of producing accurate forecasts of disruptive events is an extraordinarily challenging effort. The difficulties associated with the detection of extreme events found at these scales motivates the research of methodologies that efficiently sample relevant uncertainties. This study investigates the potential of multiple techniques to account for model uncertainty. The performance of various stochastic schemes is assessed for an exceptional heavy precipitation episode which occurred in eastern Spain. In particular, the stochastic strategies are compared to a multiphysics approach in terms of both spread and skill. The analyzed techniques include stochastic parameterization perturbation tendency and perturbations to influential parameters within the microphysics scheme. The introduction of stochastic perturbations to the microphysics processes results in a larger ensemble spread throughout the entire simulation. Conversely, modifications to microphysics parameters generate small-scale perturbations that rapidly grow over areas with high convective instability, in contrast to the other methods, which produce more widespread perturbations. A conclusion of specific interest for the western Mediterranean, where deep moist convection and local orography play an important role, is that stochastic methods are shown to outperform a multiphysics-based ensemble of this case, indicating the potential positive impact of stochastic parameterizations for the forecast of extreme events in the region

A comparison of ensemble strategies for flash flood forecasting: The 12 October 2007 case study in Valencia, Spain

On 12 October 2007, several flash floods affected the Valencia region, eastern Spain, with devastating impacts in terms of human, social, and economic losses. An enhanced modeling and forecasting of these extremes, which can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) program. The predictability bounds set by multiple sources of hydrological and meteorological uncertainty require their explicit representation in hydrometeorological forecasting systems. By including local convective precipitation systems, short-range ensemble prediction systems (SREPSs) provide a state-of-the-art framework to generate quantitative discharge forecasts and to cope with different sources of external-scale (i.e., external to the hydrological system) uncertainties. The performance of three distinct hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPSs) for the small-sized Serpis River basin is examined as a support tool for early warning and mitigation strategies. To this end, the Flash-Flood Event-Based Spatially Distributed Rainfall-RunoffTransformation-Water Balance (FEST-WB) model is driven by ground stations to examine the hydrological response of this semiarid and karstic catchment to heavy rains. The use of a multisite and novel calibration approach for the FEST-WB parameters is necessary to cope with the high nonlinearities emerging from the rainfall-runofftransformation and heterogeneities in the basin response. After calibration, FEST-WB reproduces with remarkable accuracy the hydrological response to intense precipitation and, in particular, the 12 October 2007 flash flood. Next, the flood predictability challenge is focused on quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). In this regard, three SREPS generation strategies using the WRF Model are analyzed. On the one side, two SREPSs accounting for 1) uncertainties in the initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) and 2) physical parameterizations are evaluated. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is also designed to test the ability of ensemble data assimilation methods to represent key mesoscale uncertainties from both IC and subscale processes. Results indicate that accounting for diversity in the physical parameterization schemes provides the best probabilistic high-resolution QPFs for this particular flash flood event. For low to moderate precipitation rates, EnKF and pure multiple physics approaches render undistinguishable accuracy for the test situation at larger scales. However, only the multiple physics QPFs properly drive the HEPS to render the most accurate flood warning signals. That is, extreme precipitation values produced by these convective-scale precipitation systems anchored by complex orography are better forecast when accounting just for uncertainties in the physical parameterizations. These findings contribute to the identification of ensemble strategies better targeted to the most relevant sources of uncertainty before flash flood situations over small catchments