Modeling Crop Yield Distributions from Small Samples

Accurately modeling crop yield distributions is important for estimation of crop insurance premiums and farm risk-management decisions. A major challenge in the modeling has been due to small sample size. This study evaluated potentials of L-moments, a recent concept in mathematical statistics, in modeling crop yield distribution. Five candidate distributions were ranked for describing the wheat yields. The selected distribution was robust for small sample and was invariant to de-trending. The result was consistent with that from the maximum likelihood and goodness-of-fit method.Crop Production/Industries,

AN OPERATIONAL APPROACH FOR EVALUATING INVESTMENT RISK: AN APPLICATION TO THE NO-TILL TRANSITION

This study analyses short and long term safety first business risk associated with twenty six no-till transition strategies across four types of farms in eastern Washington. Risk of transition failure generated from risk averse criteria are also contrasted with a risk neutral criterion. Results revealed (1) that speeds of adoption have a larger effect than drill acquisition sequences in successful transition, (2) high equity farm have higher chance of success, and (3) slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill is preferred until yield penalty is eliminated.Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Diversified Farms

Agriculture can potentially contribute to Canada meeting its commitment to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the Kyoto protocol. A representative crop - livestock feeding farm on the Canadian prairies is used to estimate the cost of net GHG abatement, taking into account CO2 equivalent emissions and carbon sequestration. Optimal cropping systems use direct seeding and continuous cropping, production systems that have lower net GHG emissions. Livestock feeding uses rations with high energy concentration (grain based) because they are more profitable and also produce less methane per animal than forage based diets. Reducing tillage is the least costly means of lowering net emissions ($20/t CO2 eq.), followed by reducing cattle feeding ($32/t CO2 eq.). If emission reductions are high or cattle numbers can not be reduced, cropping is altered to use very little nitrogen fertilizer ($272-567/t CO2 eq.), and cattle feeding is switched to a higher forage diet (up to$1500/t CO2 eq.). The high forage diet has lower emissions per capacity animal, but only because one-half the number of animals can be finished with the same facility capacity. A regional analyses of aggregate emissions will need to incorporate the heterogeneity of farms and soil carbon levels that exist.Environmental Economics and Policy,

An Innovative Approach for Modeling Crop Yield Response to Fertilizer Nutrients

Fertilizer recommendations seldom account for agro-climatic conditions, which are important factors that determine the response to fertilizer and the optimal rate of fertilizer. The nitrogen fertilizer response to open pollinated and hybrid canola types will also impact optimal nitrogen rates. This study used quantile regression to model canola yield response to nitrogen fertilizer. Quantile regression can apply different weights to the residuals, facilitating a response estimation where the agro-climatic conditions are not limiting and the yield response is due to the variable of interest. The economically optimal levels of fertilizers were calculated using the proposed and the conventional least squares procedures of the two canola types in western Canada. Results showed that the effects of nitrogen fertilizer on yield depended on the canola type and on the estimation procedure. Optimal levels of nitrogen for open-pollinated canola were estimated as 91, 115, and 134 kg ha-1 for severe, moderate and low levels of agro-climatic constraints. Hybrid had a higher yield potential, and also required more nitrogen fertilizer (137, 142, and 158 kg ha-1). Unlike conventional approach, proposed approach could benefit producer by recommending less (more) fertilizer when the crop response to fertilizer is expected to be low (high) due to agro-climatic conditions.Crop Production/Industries,

RISK EFFICIENCY OF ALTERNATE CANOLA MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

This study evaluates profitability and risk associated with eighteen different management decisions for canola production in Alberta. Expected payoff from cultivar selection outweighs the payoff from time of seeding and from time of weed control. Expected payoff was higher from hybrid compared to inbred cultivars. Early spring seeding was more profitable than fall or mid-May seeding. A typical decision in the sample showed positive and significant upper limit risk-expected return tradeoffs. The generalized stochastic dominance analysis revealed that early spring seeding was dominant over fall and mid-May seeding across all risk averse and risk neutral farmers. Weed control at the six-leaf stage was risk efficient for a risk averter. A risk neutral farmer preferred weed control at the three to four-leaf stage or six-leaf stage, depending on cultivar.Risk and Uncertainty,

Modeling Crop Yield Distributions from Small Samples

Accurately modeling crop yield distributions is important for estimation of crop insurance premiums and farm risk-management decisions. A major challenge in the modeling has been due to small sample size. This study evaluated potentials of L-moments, a recent concept in mathematical statistics, in modeling crop yield distribution. Five candidate distributions were ranked for describing the wheat yields. The selected distribution was robust for small sample and was invariant to de-trending. The result was consistent with that from the maximum likelihood and goodness-of-fit method

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Diversified Farms

Agriculture can potentially contribute to Canada meeting its commitment to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the Kyoto protocol. A representative crop - livestock feeding farm on the Canadian prairies is used to estimate the cost of net GHG abatement, taking into account CO2 equivalent emissions and carbon sequestration. Optimal cropping systems use direct seeding and continuous cropping, production systems that have lower net GHG emissions. Livestock feeding uses rations with high energy concentration (grain based) because they are more profitable and also produce less methane per animal than forage based diets. Reducing tillage is the least costly means of lowering net emissions ($20/t CO2 eq.), followed by reducing cattle feeding ($32/t CO2 eq.). If emission reductions are high or cattle numbers can not be reduced, cropping is altered to use very little nitrogen fertilizer ($272-567/t CO2 eq.), and cattle feeding is switched to a higher forage diet (up to$1500/t CO2 eq.). The high forage diet has lower emissions per capacity animal, but only because one-half the number of animals can be finished with the same facility capacity. A regional analyses of aggregate emissions will need to incorporate the heterogeneity of farms and soil carbon levels that exist

An Operational Approach for Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application to the No-Till Transition

Roy's safety-first rule is used to provide measures popular with farmers of short and long term business risk associated with various no-till transition strategies over an investment horizon. The short run rule provided more sensitivity to inter-year financial risk than other commonly used criteria. Results revealed that speed of adoption influenced the probability of successful transition more than did the sequence of drill acquisition methods. Higher equity and larger farms had a greater chance of transition success. Slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill reduces risk until a no-till yield penalty is eliminated

An Innovative Approach for Modeling Crop Yield Response to Fertilizer Nutrients

Fertilizer recommendations seldom account for agro-climatic conditions, which are important factors that determine the response to fertilizer and the optimal rate of fertilizer. The nitrogen fertilizer response to open pollinated and hybrid canola types will also impact optimal nitrogen rates. This study used quantile regression to model canola yield response to nitrogen fertilizer. Quantile regression can apply different weights to the residuals, facilitating a response estimation where the agro-climatic conditions are not limiting and the yield response is due to the variable of interest. The economically optimal levels of fertilizers were calculated using the proposed and the conventional least squares procedures of the two canola types in western Canada. Results showed that the effects of nitrogen fertilizer on yield depended on the canola type and on the estimation procedure. Optimal levels of nitrogen for open-pollinated canola were estimated as 91, 115, and 134 kg ha-1 for severe, moderate and low levels of agro-climatic constraints. Hybrid had a higher yield potential, and also required more nitrogen fertilizer (137, 142, and 158 kg ha-1). Unlike conventional approach, proposed approach could benefit producer by recommending less (more) fertilizer when the crop response to fertilizer is expected to be low (high) due to agro-climatic conditions