Retrospective and projected warming-equivalent emissions from global livestock and cattle calculated with an alternative climate metric denoted GWP

Limiting warming by the end of the century to 1.5̊C compared to pre-Industrial times requires reaching and sustaining net zero global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and declining radiative forcing from non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) sources such as methane (CH4). This implies eliminating CO2 emissions or balancing them with removals while mitigating CH4 emissions to reduce their radiative forcing over time. The global cattle sector (including Buffalo) mainly emits CH4 and N2O and will benefit from understanding the extent and speed of CH4 reductions necessary to align its mitigation ambitions with global temperature goals. This study explores the utility of an alternative usage of global warming potentials (GWP*) in combination with the Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) to compare retrospective and projected climate impacts of global livestock emission pathways with other sectors (e.g. fossil fuel and land use change). To illustrate this, we estimated the amount and fraction of total warming attributable to direct CH4 livestock emissions from 1750 to 2019 using existing emissions datasets and projected their contributions to future warming under three historical and three future emission scenarios. These historical and projected estimates were transformed into cumulative CO2 equivalent (GWP100) and warming equivalent (GWP*) emissions that were multiplied by a TCRE coefficient to express induced warming as globally averaged surface temperature change. In general, temperature change estimates from this study are comparable to those obtained from other climate models. Sustained annual reductions in CH4 emissions of 0.32% by the global cattle sector would stabilize their future effect on global temperature while greater reductions would reverse historical past contributions to global warming by the sector in a similar fashion to increasing C sinks. The extent and speed with which CH4 mitigation interventions are introduced by the sector will determine the peak temperature achieved in the path to net-zero GHG. © 2023 del Prado et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.The authors of this paper report the following sources of funding: Global Dairy Platform supported authors AdP and BL. Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science supported AdP, Spanish National Plan for Scientific and Technical Research and Innovation supported AdP through grant (RYC-2017-22143), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación supported AdP through grant (CEX2021-001201-M), Eusko Jaurlaritza supported AdP through grant (BERC 2022-2024), Dairy Management Inc (US) supported AdP and JT through Global Dairy Platform AdP was also supported through Global Dairy Platform by Arla Foods, Dairy Australia, Dairy Companies of New Zealand, Global Round Table for Sustainable Beef, Innovation Centre for US Dairy, McDonalds Corporation, and Meat and Livestock Australia. BL is supported by Global Dairy Platform. JT received salary from Dairy Management Inc. The funders had a role in the study design by providing some of the general questions. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section. Many thanks to Arla Foods, Dairy Australia, Dairy Companies of New Zealand, Dairy Man- agement Inc., Global Dairy Platform, Global Round Table for Sustainable Beef, McDonalds Corporation, and Meat and Livestock Australia for helping on the study design and providing some of the general questions

European Non-native Species in Aquaculture Risk Analysis Scheme - a summary of assessment protocols and decision support tools for use of alien species in aquaculture

The European Non-native Species in Aquaculture Risk Analysis Scheme (ENSARS) was developed in response to European 'Council Regulation No. 708/2007 of 11 June 2007 concerning use of alien and locally absent species in aquaculture' to provide protocols for identifying and evaluating the potential risks of using non-native species in aquaculture. ENSARS is modular in structure and adapted from non-native species risk assessment schemes developed by the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation and for the UK. Seven of the eight ENSARS modules contain protocols for evaluating the risks of escape, introduction to and establishment in open waters, of any non-native aquatic organism being used (or associated with those used) in aquaculture, that is, transport pathways, rearing facilities, infectious agents, and the potential organism, ecosystem and socio-economic impacts. A concluding module is designed to summarise the risks and consider management options. During the assessments, each question requires the assessor to provide a response and confidence ranking for that response based on expert opinion. Each module can also be used individually, and each requires a specific form of expertise. Therefore, a multidisciplinary assessment team is recommended for its completion

The case for new rural centralities in agricultural enclaves: three scenarios for Muggiano

Agricultural enclaves represent for cities both a challenge, they have to deal with connectivity and development issues, and an opportunity, they can be considered as resources for achieving major policy objectives such as better environmental protection or increased local food production. Among European metropolises, Milan’s case is quite original since it presents unique institutional arrangements and chiefly its agricultural park (Parco Agricolo Sud Milano – PASM). The territory of Muggiano is part of the PASM, at the fringe of the municipal territory, cut out from both the rest of the city and the rest of the park, it is undergoing a slow decline both in its agricultural and urban functions. Yet, field exploration revealed a more complex territory than expected, carrying a strong latent potential and presenting different challenges than expected. In a prospective effort, we elaborated 3 scenarios for the development of Muggiano: from a fully agricultural production one to another extreme one, focusing on residential uses. Our exploration led us to concluding that the “rural centrality” scenario, investing fully on agriculture but not only for its productive function, and spatially balancing the development along a “backbone”, was the best option Muggiano could go for

The case for new rural centralities in agricultural enclaves: three scenarios for Muggiano

Agricultural enclaves represent for cities both a challenge, they have to deal with connectivity and development issues, and an opportunity, they can be considered as resources for achieving major policy objectives such as better environmental protection or increased local food production. Among European metropolises, Milan\u2019s case is quite original since it presents unique institutional arrangements and chiefly its agricultural park (Parco Agricolo Sud Milano \u2013 PASM). The territory of Muggiano is part of the PASM, at the fringe of the municipal territory, cut out from both the rest of the city and the rest of the park, it is undergoing a slow decline both in its agricultural and urban functions. Yet, field exploration revealed a more complex territory than expected, carrying a strong latent potential and presenting different challenges than expected. In a prospective effort, we elaborated 3 scenarios for the development of Muggiano: from a fully agricultural production one to another extreme one, focusing on residential uses. Our exploration led us to concluding that the \u201crural centrality\u201d scenario, investing fully on agriculture but not only for its productive function, and spatially balancing the development along a \u201cbackbone\u201d, was the best option Muggiano could go for

A meta-analysis of methane mitigation potential of feed additives evaluated in vitro

A systematic literature review of in vitro studies was performed to identify methane (CH4) mitigation interventions with a potential to reduce CH4 emission in vivo. Data from 277 peer-reviewed studies published between 1979 and 2018 were reviewed. Individual CH4 mitigation interventions were classified into 14 categories of feed additives based on their type, chemical composition, and mode of action. Response variables evaluated were absolute CH4 emission (number of treatment means comparisons = 1,325); total volatile fatty acids (VFA; n = 1,007), acetate (n = 783), propionate (n = 792), and butyrate (n = 776) concentrations; acetate to propionate ratio (A:P; n = 675); digestibility of dry matter (DM; n = 489), organic matter (OM; n = 277), and neutral detergent fiber (NDF; n = 177). Total gas production was used as an explanatory variable in the model for CH4 production. Relative mean difference between treatment and control means reported in the studies were calculated and used for statistical analysis. Robust variance estimation method was used to analyze the effects of CH4 mitigation interventions. In vitro CH4 production was decreased by antibodies (−38.9%), chemical inhibitors (−29.2%), electron sinks (−18.9%), essential oils (−18.2%), plant extracts (−14.5%), plants inclusion (−11.7%), saponins (−14.8%), and tannins (−14.5%). Overall effects of direct fed microbials, enzymes, macroalgae, and organic acids supplementation did not affect CH4 production in the current meta-analysis. When considering the effects of individual mitigation interventions containing a minimum number of 4 degrees of freedom within feed additives categories, Enterococcus spp. (i.e., direct fed microbial), nitrophenol (i.e., electron sink), and Leucaena spp. (i.e., tannins) decreased CH4 production by 20.3, 27.1, and 23.5%, respectively, without extensively, or only slightly, affecting ruminal fermentation and digestibility of nutrients. It should be noted, however, that although the total number of publications (n = 277) and treatment means comparisons (n = 1,325 for CH4 production) in the current analysis were high, data for most mitigation interventions were obtained from less than 5 observations (e.g., maximum number of observations was 4, 7, and 22 for nitrophenol, Enterococcus spp., and Leucaena spp., respectively), because of limited data available in the literature. These should be further evaluated in vitro and in vivo to determine their true potential to decrease enteric CH4 production, yield, and intensity. Some mitigation interventions (e.g., magnesium, Heracleum spp., nitroglycerin, β-cyclodextrin, Leptospermum pattersoni, Fructulus Ligustri, Salix caprea, and Sesbania grandiflora) decreased in vitro CH4 production by over 50% but did not have enough observations in the database. These should be more extensively investigated in vitro, and the dose effect must be considered before adoption of mitigation interventions in vivo