Relative age in the school year and risk of mental health problems in childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood

Purpose Relative age within the school year (‘relative age’) is associated with increased rates of symptoms and diagnoses of mental health disorders, including ADHD. We aimed to investigate how relative age influences mental health and behaviour before, during and after school (age range: 4–25 years). Method We used a regression discontinuity design to examine the effect of relative age on risk of mental health problems using data from a large UK population-based cohort (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC); N = 14,643). We compared risk of mental health problems between ages 4 and 25 years using the parent-rated Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), and depression using self-rated and parent-rated Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire (SMFQ) by relative age. Results The youngest children in the school year have greater parent-rated risk of mental health problems, measured using parent-rated SDQ total difficulties scores. We found no evidence of differences before school entry [estimated standardised mean difference (SMD) between those born on 31 August and 1 September: .02 (−.05, .08)]. We found that estimates of effect size for a 1-year difference in relative age were greatest at 11 years [SMD: .22 (.15, .29)], but attenuated to the null at 25 years [SMD: −.02 (−.11, .07)]. We did not find consistent evidence of differences in self-rated and parent-rated depression by relative age. Conclusions Younger relative age is associated with poorer parent-rated general mental health, but not symptoms of depression

Low level lead exposure and pregnancy outcomes:dose–response relationships

BACKGROUND: National and international guidelines on safe levels for blood Pb in pregnancy focus on a threshold above which exposure is of concern. However, it has recently been suggested that the decrease in birth weight per unit increase in blood Pb is actually greater at lower than at higher concentrations of Pb without evidence of a lower threshold of effect. Our aim was to investigate whether there was evidence for a differential effect of maternal Pb levels on birth outcomes and/or a threshold value for effects. METHODS: Blood samples from pregnant women enrolled in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were analysed. Data collected on the infants included anthropometric variables. We fitted adjusted multivariable fractional polynomial models for birth outcomes. RESULTS: Adjusted models that assumed a linear relationship between untransformed blood Pb and the outcomes provided the best fit: an increase of 1 µg/dl was associated with changes in birth weight of −9.93 (95 % CI −20.27, 0.41) g, head circumference −0.03 (95 % CI −0.06, 0.00) cm and crown–heel length −0.05 (95 % CI −0.10, 0.00) cm. CONCLUSION: There was no evidence in this study to suggest a supralinear dose–response relationship or a lower threshold for the effect of maternal blood Pb on birth outcomes. This has implications for consideration of national and international guidelines on levels of concern in pregnancy. Exposure to Pb should be kept as low as possible during pregnancy to minimise adverse outcomes

Improved two-stage estimation to adjust for treatment switching in randomised trials:g-estimation to address time-dependent confounding

In oncology trials, control group patients often switch onto the experimental treatment during follow-up, usually after disease progression. In this case, an intention-to-treat analysis will not address the policy question of interest – that of whether the new treatment represents an effective and cost-effective use of health care resources, compared to the standard treatment. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM), inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCW) and two-stage estimation (TSE) have often been used to adjust for switching to inform treatment reimbursement policy decisions. TSE has been applied using a simple approach (TSEsimp), assuming no time-dependent confounding between the time of disease progression and the time of switch. This is problematic if there is a delay between progression and switch. In this paper we introduce TSEgest, which uses structural nested models and g-estimation to account for time-dependent confounding, and compare it to TSEsimp, RPSFTM and IPCW. We simulated scenarios where control group patients could switch onto the experimental treatment with and without time-dependent confounding being present. We varied switching proportions, treatment effects and censoring proportions. We assessed adjustment methods according to their estimation of control group restricted mean survival times that would have been observed in the absence of switching. All methods performed well in scenarios with no time-dependent confounding. TSEgest and RPSFTM continued to perform well in scenarios with time-dependent confounding, but TSEsimp resulted in substantial bias. IPCW also performed well in scenarios with time-dependent confounding, except when inverse probability weights were high in relation to the size of the group being subjected to weighting, which occurred when there was a combination of modest sample size and high switching proportions. TSEgest represents a useful addition to the collection of methods that may be used to adjust for treatment switching in trials in order to address policy-relevant questions

Live-birth rate associated with repeat in vitro fertilization treatment cycles

© 2015 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. Importance The likelihood of achieving a live birth with repeat in vitro fertilization (IVF) is unclear, yet treatment is commonly limited to 3 or 4 embryo transfers. Objective To determine the live-birth rate per initiated ovarian stimulation IVF cycle and with repeated cycles. Design, Setting, and Participants Prospective study of 156 947 UKwomen who received 257 398 IVF ovarian stimulation cycles between 2003 and 2010 and were followed up until June 2012. Exposures In vitro fertilization, with a cycle defined as an episode of ovarian stimulation and all subsequent separate fresh and frozen embryo transfers. Main Outcomes and Measures Live-birth rate per IVF cycle and the cumulative live-birth rates across all cycles in all women and by age and treatment type. Optimal, prognosis-adjusted, and conservative cumulative live-birth rates were estimated, reflecting 0%, 30%, and 100%, respectively, of women who discontinued due to poor prognosis and having a live-birth rate of 0 had they continued. Results Among the 156 947 women, the median age at start of treatment was 35 years (interquartile range, 32-38; range, 18-55), and the median duration of infertility for all 257 398 cycles was 4 years (interquartile range, 2-6; range