Drivers of future urban flood risk

Managing urban flood risk is a key global challenge of the 21st Century. Drivers of future UK flood risk were identified and assessed by the Flood Foresight project in 2002-04 and 2008; envisaging flood risk during the 2050s and 2080s under a range of scenarios for climate change and socio-economic development. This paper qualitatively reassesses and updates these drivers, using empirical evidence and advances in flood risk science, technology and practice gained since 2008. Of the original drivers, five have strengthened, three have weakened and 14 remain within their 2008 uncertainty bands. Rainfall, as impacted by climate change, is the leading source driver of future urban flood risk. Intra-urban Asset Deterioration, leading to increases in a range of consequential flood risks, is the primary pathway driver. Social impacts (risk to life and health, and the intangible impacts of flooding on communities) and continued capital investment in Buildings and Contents (leading to greater losses when newer buildings of higher economic worth are inundated), have strengthened as receptor drivers of urban flood risk. Further, we propose two new drivers: Loss of Floodable Urban Spaces, and Indirect Economic Impacts, which we suggest may have significant impacts on future urban flood risk

On-site prediction of ephemeral gully erosion

CER84-85CRT2.July 1984

Evaluating the multiple benefits of a sustainable drainage scheme in Newcastle, UK

Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) and Blue-Green infrastructure (BGI) provide a range of environmental, economic and social benefits in addition to managing water quantity and quality. Recognition of the multifunctionality of SuDS and BGI, and the specific benefits that may accrue to different beneficiaries, may facilitate partnership working towards multifunctional infrastructure that meets the strategic objectives of public and private organisations. We evaluate the multiple benefits of the Killingworth and Longbenton surface water management scheme, a Partnership Project in NE England jointly funded by Northumbrian Water, the Environment Agency and North Tyneside Council. Using CIRIA’s Benefits of SuDS Tool (BeST) and the Blue-Green Cities Multiple Benefits GIS Toolbox, we a) quantify and monetise six key benefits, b) assess two qualitative benefits, c) illustrate the spatial distribution of five non-flood benefits, and d) highlight locations with the greatest opportunity for multi-beneficial intervention. The Killingworth and Longbenton scheme generates; significant flood damage reduction benefits; improves water quality, habitat size, carbon sequestration, attractiveness of the area and property prices (amenity), and; reduces noise pollution. Utilisation of these complementary tools for multiple benefit evaluation shows promise as an aid to facilitate partnership working towards implementation of multifunctional SuDS and BGI

Doing flood risk modelling differently: Evaluating the potential for participatory techniques to broaden flood risk management decision‐making

Responsibility for flood risk management (FRM) is increasingly being devolved to a wider set of stakeholders, and effective participation by multiple FRM agencies and communities at risk calls for engagement approaches that supplement and make the best possible use of hydrologic and hydraulic flood modelling. Stakeholder engagement must strike a considered balance between participation ideals and the pragmatic realities of existing mechanisms for flood risk management decision-making. This paper evaluates the potential for using participatory modelling to facilitate engagement and co- production of knowledge by FRM modellers, practitioners and other stakeholders. Participatory modelling offers an approach that is flexible and versatile, yet sufficiently structured that it can support meaningful representation of scientific, empirical and local knowledges in producing outcomes that can readily be integrated into existing procedures for shared decision-making. This paper frames the qualities of participatory modelling useful to FRM, as being accessible, transparent, adaptable, evaluative and holistic. These qualities are used as criteria with which to assess the practical utility of three popular participatory techniques: Bayesian networks, system dynamics and fuzzy cognitive mapping. Case studies are used to illustrate how each technique might benefit FRM options appraisal and decision-making. While each technique has potential, none is ideal, and local contexts will guide selection of which technique is best suited to deliver effective stakeholder participation

Evaluating the multiple benefits of a sustainable drainage scheme in Newcastle, UK

Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) and Blue-Green infrastructure (BGI) provide a range of environmental, economic and social benefits in addition to managing water quantity and quality. Recognition of the multifunctionality of SuDS and BGI, and the specific benefits that may accrue to different beneficiaries, may facilitate partnership working towards multifunctional infrastructure that meets the strategic objectives of public and private organisations. We evaluate the multiple benefits of the Killingworth and Longbenton surface water management scheme, a Partnership Project in NE England jointly funded by Northumbrian Water, the Environment Agency and North Tyneside Council. Using CIRIA’s Benefits of SuDS Tool (BeST) and the Blue-Green Cities Multiple Benefits GIS Toolbox, we a) quantify and monetise six key benefits, b) assess two qualitative benefits, c) illustrate the spatial distribution of five non-flood benefits, and d) highlight locations with the greatest opportunity for multi-beneficial intervention. The Killingworth and Longbenton scheme generates; significant flood damage reduction benefits; improves water quality, habitat size, carbon sequestration, attractiveness of the area and property prices (amenity), and; reduces noise pollution. Utilisation of these complementary tools for multiple benefit evaluation shows promise as an aid to facilitate partnership working towards implementation of multifunctional SuDS and BGI

The salience of children increases adult prosocial values

Organizations often put children front and center in campaigns to elicit interest and support for prosocial causes. Such initiatives raise a key theoretical and applied question that has yet to be addressed directly: Does the salience of children increase prosocial motivation and behavior in adults? We present findings aggregated across eight experiments involving 2,054 adult participants: Prosocial values became more important after completing tasks that made children salient compared to tasks that made adults (or a mundane event) salient or compared to a no-task baseline. An additional field study showed that adults were more likely to donate money to a child-unrelated cause when children were more salient on a shopping street. The findings suggest broad, reliable interconnections between human mental representations of children and prosocial motives, as the child salience effect was not moderated by participants’ gender, age, attitudes, or contact with children

Attitudes toward children : distinguishing affection and stress

This project was supported by funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) under grant agreement ES/P002463/1.Background Adults' views and behaviors toward children can vary from being supportive to shockingly abusive, and there are significant unanswered questions about the psychological factors underpinning this variability. Objective The present research examined the content of adults' attitudes toward children to address these questions. Method Ten studies (N?=?4702) identified the factor structure of adults' descriptions of babies, toddlers, and school-age children and examined how the resulting factors related to a range of external variables. Results Two factors emerged?affection toward children and stress elicited by them?and this factor structure was invariant across the United Kingdom, the United States, and South Africa. Affection uniquely captures emotional approach tendencies, concern for others, and broad positivity in evaluations, experiences, motivations, and donation behavior. Stress relates to emotional instability, emotional avoidance, and concern about disruptions to a self-oriented, structured life. The factors also predict distinct experiences in a challenging situation?home-parenting during COVID-19 lockdown?with affection explaining greater enjoyment and stress explaining greater perceived difficulty. Affection further predicts mentally visualizing children as pleasant and confident, whereas stress predicts mentally visualizing children as less innocent. Conclusions These findings offer fundamental new insights about social cognitive processes in adults that impact adult?child relationships and children's well-being.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Anthropogenic litter is a novel habitat for aquatic macroinvertebrates in urban rivers

1. Anthropogenic litter (solid manufactured waste) is an understudied but pervasive element of river systems worldwide. Its physical structure generally differs from natural substrates, such as gravel and cobbles (hereafter rocks). Consequently, anthropogenic litter could influence ecological communities in urban rivers by providing novel habitats.2. This study compares the macroinvertebrates recorded on anthropogenic litter with those on rocks to test whether the different substrates support distinct communities. Macroinvertebrates were collected from individual rocks and anthropogenic litter, predominantly plastic, metal, and glass, in three U.K. rivers.3. Macroinvertebrate communities on anthropogenic litter were consistently more diverse than those found on rocks, reflecting its greater surface complexity, but the density of macroinvertebrates was similar among substrates. The community composition also varied between substrates, with five taxa only recorded on anthropogenic litter. Community differences largely reflected greater abundances of common taxa on anthropogenic litter, which were relatively insensitive to environmental quality. Plastic and fabric anthropogenic litter communities were the most dissimilar to those on rocks, probably due to their flexibility, which could replicate the physical structure of aquatic macrophytes.4. Our findings indicate that anthropogenic litter supports a distinct and diverse community of macroinvertebrates in urban rivers, which are otherwise relatively homogenous in habitat structure.5. Removal of anthropogenic litter from urban rivers may not be beneficial for local biodiversity. Understanding the functional habitats provided by anthropogenic litter could help better manage urban rivers to replace habitat lost through urbanisation