Forests of the future: ecosystem services in a forest landscape facing significant changes

The natural environment provides a range of benefits to people via ecosystem services. Different types of land management deliver different combinations and amounts of ecosystem services. Traditionally, many landscapes were managed to maximise the delivery of just a few benefits, such as food or timber, but this was often at the expense of other potential benefits, such as carbon sequestration or water supply. The ecosystem services approach aims to improve land management by explicitly recognising and quantifying the full range of benefits, acknowledging that all ecosystem services contribute to human wellbeing. However, despite there being much research, there is as yet limited practical application. This PhD thesis explores ecosystem service delivery in an applied forestry context, using Thetford Forest (East Anglia, UK) as a case study with the aim of generating practical recommendations for future management. As part of the UK Public Forest Estate, the delivery of a wide range of public benefits is today a central objective of forest management. However, the forest is currently facing significant changes in response to a range of issues such as climate change and disease. I quantified the delivery of a comprehensive suite of ecosystem services for a wide range of realistic management options for the Thetford Forest landscape. Working in collaboration with the Forestry Commission (managers of Thetford Forest and my CASE partner), I tailored my research to include all the management options that are under consideration for the future of the forest. I systematically quantified how these different management options deliver nine ecosystem services: timber, carbon, deer (for game but also a management problem), water supply, soil quality, recreation, wildlife, scenic beauty and tranquillity, heritage and educational value. I conducted an in-depth analysis for each ecosystem service, using a combination of novel methodologies and adaptations of existing techniques. It is generally acknowledged that management for ecosystem services does not always align with objectives for biodiversity conservation so I also explored how forest management affects bird diversity (as an indicator of wider biodiversity), using high-resolution remote sensing data to calculate a number of structural characteristics. Overall, wide-scale landscape heterogeneity was more important for bird diversity than within-stand heterogeneity. In my final chapter I collated all the results for the different ecosystem services to evaluate the trade-offs and synergies between them and between different management options. I identified twelve management options that were the most efficient in terms of ecosystem service delivery. I conducted multi-criteria decision analysis to find the landscape configurations that maximise ecosystem service delivery, and investigated the effects of different values and preferences. Results were generally robust to such changes and could also align with strategies for bird conservation. The overall recommendation was for a third of the Thetford Forest landscape to be open space, half to be conifers (with a ratio of mixtures to monocultures of around 1:2) managed through a combination of both rotational clearfell and continuous-cover, and the remainder to be conifer and broadleaved mixtures, broadleaved monocultures and a small broadleaved mixture component. This thesis illustrates a comprehensive assessment of potential ecosystem service delivery to generate recommendations for the future management of a landscape. The approach adopted here has wide application in translating ecosystem services research to practical decision making.NERC; Forestry Englan

Quantifying cultural ecosystem services: disentangling the effects of management from landscape features

1. Cultural ecosystem services are undeniably important, yet are typically neglected in land management decisions due to a suite of intractable challenges: they are highly complex, localised, and inextricably associated with landscape features. However, to incorporate the ecosystem services framework into land management, decision makers need the tools to disentangle the effects of land use from other factors. This is a major challenge for ecosystem services research. 2. Forestry is a widespread land use that has considerable potential to deliver a broad range of ecosystem services, although this requires careful management planning. Additionally, modern production forestry is undergoing a period of rapid change in the face of a plethora of challenges, such as climate change and disease. To increase cultural ecosystem services delivery from forests, managers need tools to understand the implications of different management options. 3. In this paper, we directly test how land use affects cultural ecosystem services. We use a new approach that recognises the underlying complexity of cultural ecosystem services but produces easily interpretable results that are locally relevant and directly applicable to land management. By combining participatory GIS and a novel site matching technique, we relate cultural values explicitly to land management, while accounting for the influence of landscape features. 4. Applying this new method to a major UK forest site, we conducted a large survey to gather participatory GIS data points. We showed that land management significantly affected cultural ecosystem service values and were able to make a series of practical forest management recommendations. Notably, a greater diversity of tree species would improve cultural value, and open space is important within the forest landscape. 5. This approach is highly flexible and can be applied to any type of landscape. It allows cultural ecosystem services to be fully integrated into land management decisions to formulate the best management strategy to maximise ecosystem service delivery

Ten-year assessment of the 100 priority questions for global biodiversity conservation

In 2008, a group of conservation scientists compiled a list of 100 priority questions for the conservation of the world's biodiversity ?Sutherland et al. (2009) Conservation Biology, 23, 557?567?. However, now almost a decade later, no one has yet published a study gauging how much progress has been made in addressing these 100 high?priority questions in the peer?reviewed literature. Here we take a first step toward re?examining the 100 questions and identify key knowledge gaps that still remain. Through a combination of a questionnaire and a literature review, we evaluated each of the 100 questions on the basis of two criteria: relevance and effort. We defined highly?relevant questions as those which ? if answered ? would have the greatest impact on global biodiversity conservation, while effort was quantified based on the number of review publications addressing a particular question, which we used as a proxy for research effort. Using this approach we identified a set of questions that, despite being perceived as highly relevant, have been the focus of relatively few review publications over the past ten years. These questions covered a broad range of topics but predominantly tackled three major themes: the conservation and management of freshwater ecosystems, the role of societal structures in shaping interactions between people and the environment, and the impacts of conservation interventions. We see these questions as important knowledge gaps that have so far received insufficient attention and may need to be prioritised in future research

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2024

We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents. For example, new sources of hydrogen fuel and changes in deep-sea currents may have profound impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances that may be positive include benchtop DNA printers and the industrialisation of approaches that can create high-protein food from air, potentially reducing the pressure on land for food production

A horizon scan of issues affecting UK forest management within 50 years

Forests are in the spotlight: they are expected to play a pivotal role in our response to society’s greatest challenges, such as the climate and biodiversity crises. Yet, the forests themselves, and the sector that manages them, face a range of interrelated threats and opportunities. Many of these are well understood, even if the solutions remain elusive. However, there are also emerging trends that are currently less widely appreciated. We report here the results of a horizon scan to identify developing issues likely to affect UK forest management within the next 50 years. These are issues that are presently under-recognized but have potential for significant impact across the sector and beyond. As the forest management sector naturally operates over long timescales, the importance of using good foresight is self-evident. We followed a tried-and-tested horizon scanning methodology involving a diverse Expert Panel to collate and prioritize a longlist of 180 issues. The top 15 issues identified are presented in the Graphical Abstract. The issues represent a diverse range of themes, within a spectrum of influences from environmental shocks and perturbations to changing political and socio-economic drivers, with complex emerging interactions between them. The most highly ranked issue was ‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’, reflecting agreement that not only is such collapse a likely prospect but it would also have huge implications across the sector and wider society. These and many of the other issues are large scale, with far-reaching implications. We must be careful to avoid inaction through being overwhelmed, or indeed to merely focus on ‘easy wins’ without considering broader ramifications. Our responses to each of the challenges and opportunities highlighted must be synergistic and coherent, involving landscape-scale planning. A more adaptive approach to forest management will be essential, encouraging continual innovation and learning. The 15 horizon scan issues presented here are a starting point on which to build further research, prompt debate and action, and develop evidence-based policy and practice. We hope that this stimulates greater recognition of how our forests and sector may need to change to be fit for the future. In some cases, these changes will need to be fundamental and momentous

A horizon scan of issues affecting UK forest management within 50 years

Forests are in the spotlight: they are expected to play a pivotal role in our response to society’s greatest challenges, such as the climate and biodiversity crises. Yet, the forests themselves, and the sector that manages them, face a range of interrelated threats and opportunities. Many of these are well understood, even if the solutions remain elusive. However, there are also emerging trends that are currently less widely appreciated. We report here the results of a horizon scan to identify developing issues likely to affect UK forest management within the next 50 years. These are issues that are presently under-recognized but have potential for significant impact across the sector and beyond. As the forest management sector naturally operates over long timescales, the importance of using good foresight is self-evident. We followed a tried-and-tested horizon scanning methodology involving a diverse Expert Panel to collate and prioritize a longlist of 180 issues. The top 15 issues identified are presented in the Graphical Abstract. The issues represent a diverse range of themes, within a spectrum of influences from environmental shocks and perturbations to changing political and socio-economic drivers, with complex emerging interactions between them. The most highly ranked issue was ‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’, reflecting agreement that not only is such collapse a likely prospect but it would also have huge implications across the sector and wider society. These and many of the other issues are large scale, with far-reaching implications. We must be careful to avoid inaction through being overwhelmed, or indeed to merely focus on ‘easy wins’ without considering broader ramifications. Our responses to each of the challenges and opportunities highlighted must be synergistic and coherent, involving landscape-scale planning. A more adaptive approach to forest management will be essential, encouraging continual innovation and learning. The 15 horizon scan issues presented here are a starting point on which to build further research, prompt debate and action, and develop evidence-based policy and practice. We hope that this stimulates greater recognition of how our forests and sector may need to change to be fit for the future. In some cases, these changes will need to be fundamental and momentous

Research data supporting "Quantifying cultural ecosystem services: disentangling the effects of management from landscape features"

This dataset contains the points collected as part of a participatory GIS survey investigating the cultural values of Thetford Forest. Data were collected using the online spraycan tool 'Map-Me' (http://map-me.org/). Participants were asked to mark maps with the areas that they valued for four cultural ecosystem services. Further details of the method are available in Tew et al. "Quantifying cultural ecosystem services: disentangling the effects of management from landscape features". People and Nature (accepted)

Maximising ecosystem service delivery in modern forestry

Around a third of global forest cover is managed for timber production (1), yet modern forestry faces a plethora of challenges. Climate change, disease and increasing recreational pressures are among the threats and issues requiring radical changes in the management of many commercial forests. To ensure a viable future for these forests, it is essential to balance the economic needs of forestry with the maintenance of resilient and functioning ecosystems. Additionally, when managed carefully, woodland and forest environments have the potential to deliver a great variety of other ecosystem services, such as non-timber forest products, water regulation, soil quality, recreation and heritage, alongside nature conservation and the maintenance of biodiversity (2). Decision makers need information on how land management affects different ecosystem services, in order to implement evidence-based management that maximises efficient delivery of ecosystem services in addition to biodiversity benefits. Different forest management options invariably lead to trade-offs between different ecosystem services. For example, a spruce monoculture may deliver high timber production but low recreational benefit, whereas a mixed broadleaf forest may yield less timber but support high levels of biodiversity. This talk presents results from a UK case study of a production forest (Thetford Forest, East Anglia), working in close collaboration with forest managers and stakeholders to identify the range of viable future management scenarios, including management options targeted for conservation benefits. The delivery of a comprehensive suite of ecosystem services has been quantified for these management options to give a detailed analysis of trade-offs and synergies. The talk discusses the implications of this analysis in guiding future forest management, presenting an assessment of how trade-offs can be reconciled to maximise the delivery of ecosystem services and to inform evidence-based decision-making. (1) FAO (2016) How are the world’s forests changing? Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015. Second Edition. (2) Quine, C., et al. (2011) Woodlands. In: The UK National Ecosystem Assessment Technical Report. UK National Ecosystem Assessment, UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge.peerReviewe

Alternative afforestation options on sandy heathland result in minimal long-term changes in mineral soil layers

Extensive afforestation is currently being widely promoted as a key nature-based solution for climate change mitigation. Fundamental to this strategy is the sequestration of carbon into long-term stable storage, either in wood products or the soil. However, the long-term effects of tree planting on soil carbon, or other soil properties, has rarely been examined. Importantly, afforestation can take many different forms, with differing effects on soil properties. Here, we evaluate how the historical afforestation of sandy heathland adopting a range of management options – including different combinations of conifers and broadleaves in monocultures and mixtures – have affected soil pH, total carbon and nitrogen concentrations, the C:N ratio, and carbon and nitrogen stocks almost a century later. We analyse these properties at a range of soil depths through the organic (litter, F and grass layers) and upper mineral soil profiles (0-5 cm, 5-10 cm and 10-20 cm depth). In comparison to the historical heathland sites, afforestation decreased soil pH, most dramatically under conifers, and increased the C:N ratio. However, there was overall little difference in carbon and nitrogen concentrations between alternative management options. While the total carbon and nitrogen concentrations were much higher in the organic layers of the forest options compared to the open sites, this did not translate into differences in the mineral layers. Furthermore, although we found some evidence of the transferral of carbon and nitrogen into the uppermost soil mineral layers, this was minimal in comparison to the concentrations of the organic layers. The soils at our study site are low quality and sandy, and are therefore unfavourable for incorporating organic matter, but it is still notable how little was incorporated after nearly a century of afforestation. Given the current emphasis on tree planting as a means to tackle climate change, these results demonstrate the fundamental importance of the appropriate consideration of both the afforestation management option and underlying soil type.For this research E.R.T. was supported by an Industrial CASE studentship, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and Forestry England [NE/M010287/1; NE/L002507/1]. W.J.S. is funded by Arcadia

A horizon scan of issues affecting UK forest management within 50 years

Forests are in the spotlight: they are expected to play a pivotal role in our response to society’s greatest challenges, such as the climate and biodiversity crises. Yet the forests themselves, and the sector that manages them, face a range of interrelated threats and opportunities. Many of these are well understood, even if the solutions remain elusive. However, there are also emerging trends that are currently less widely appreciated. We report here the results of a horizon scan to identify developing issues likely to affect UK forest management within the next fifty years. These are issues that are presently under-recognised but have potential for significant impact across the sector and beyond. As the forest management sector naturally operates over long timescales, the importance of using good foresight is self-evident. We followed a tried-and-tested horizon scanning methodology involving a diverse Expert Panel to collate and prioritise a longlist of 180 issues. The top15 issues identified are presented in the Graphical Abstract. The issues represent a diverse range of themes, within a spectrum of influences from environmental shocks and perturbations to changing political and socio- economic drivers, with complex emerging interactions between them. The most highly ranked issue was ‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’, reflecting agreement that not only is such collapse a likely prospect but it would also have huge implications across the sector and wider society. These and many of the other issues are large scale, with far-reaching implications. We must be careful to avoid inaction through being overwhelmed, or indeed to merely focus on ‘easy wins’ without considering broader ramifications. Our responses to each of the challenges and opportunities highlighted must be synergistic and coherent, involving landscape-scale planning. A more adaptive approach to forest management will be essential, encouraging continual innovation and learning. The 15 horizon scan issues presented here are a starting point on which to build further research, prompt debate and action, and develop evidence-based policy and practice. We hope that this stimulates greater recognition of how our forests and sector may need to change to be fit for the future. In some cases, these changes will need to be fundamental and momentous