Survival extrapolation incorporating general population mortality using excess hazard and cure models: a tutorial

Background Different parametric survival models can lead to widely discordant extrapolations and decision uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses. The use of excess hazard (EH) methods, which incorporate general population mortality data, has the potential to reduce model uncertainty. This review highlights key practical considerations of EH methods for estimating long-term survival. Methods Demonstration of methods used a case study of 686 patients from the German Breast Cancer Study Group, followed for a maximum of 7.3 y and divided into low (1/2) and high (3) grade cancers. Seven standard parametric survival models were fit to each group separately. The same 7 distributions were then used in an EH framework, which incorporated general population mortality rates, and fitted both with and without a cure parameter. Survival extrapolations, restricted mean survival time (RMST), and difference in RMST between high and low grades were compared up to 30 years along with Akaike information criterion goodness-of-fit and cure fraction estimates. The sensitivity of the EH models to lifetable misspecification was investigated. Results In our case study, variability in survival extrapolations was extensive across the standard models, with 30-y RMST ranging from 7.5 to 14.3 y. Incorporation of general population mortality rates using EH cure methods substantially reduced model uncertainty, whereas EH models without cure had less of an effect. Long-term treatment effects approached the null for most models but at varying rates. Lifetable misspecification had minimal effect on RMST differences. Conclusions EH methods may be useful for survival extrapolation, and in cancer, EHs may decrease over time and be easier to extrapolate than all-cause hazards. EH cure models may be helpful when cure is plausible and likely to result in less extrapolation variability

Disordered macrophage cytokine secretion underlies impaired acute inflammation and bacterial clearance in Crohn's disease

The cause of Crohn's disease (CD) remains poorly understood. Counterintuitively, these patients possess an impaired acute inflammatory response, which could result in delayed clearance of bacteria penetrating the lining of the bowel and predispose to granuloma formation and chronicity. We tested this hypothesis in human subjects by monitoring responses to killed Escherichia coli injected subcutaneously into the forearm. Accumulation of 111In-labeled neutrophils at these sites and clearance of 32P-labeled bacteria from them were markedly impaired in CD. Locally increased blood flow and bacterial clearance were dependent on the numbers of bacteria injected. Secretion of proinflammatory cytokines by CD macrophages was grossly impaired in response to E. coli or specific Toll-like receptor agonists. Despite normal levels and stability of cytokine messenger RNA, intracellular levels of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) were abnormally low in CD macrophages. Coupled with reduced secretion, these findings indicate accelerated intracellular breakdown. Differential transcription profiles identified disease-specific genes, notably including those encoding proteins involved in vesicle trafficking. Intracellular destruction of TNF was decreased by inhibitors of lysosomal function. Together, our findings suggest that in CD macrophages, an abnormal proportion of cytokines are routed to lysosomes and degraded rather than being released through the normal secretory pathway

Impact of a Prior Cancer Diagnosis on Quality of Care and Survival Following Acute Myocardial Infarction: Retrospective Population-Based Cohort Study in England

BACKGROUND: An increasing proportion of patients with cancer experience acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We investigated differences in quality of AMI care and survival between patients with and without previous cancer diagnoses. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using Virtual Cardio-Oncology Research Initiative data. Patients aged 40+ years hospitalized in England with AMI between January 2010 and March 2018 were assessed, ascertaining previous cancers diagnosed within 15 years. Multivariable regression was used to assess effects of cancer diagnosis, time, stage, and site on international quality indicators and mortality. RESULTS: Of 512388 patients with AMI (mean age, 69.3 years; 33.5% women), 42187 (8.2%) had previous cancers. Patients with cancer had significantly lower use of ACE (angiotensin-converting enzyme) inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (mean percentage point decrease [mppd], 2.6% [95% CI, 1.8–3.4]) and lower overall composite care (mppd, 1.2% [95% CI, 0.9–1.6]). Poorer quality indicator attainment was observed in patients with cancer diagnosed in the last year (mppd, 1.4% [95% CI, 1.8–1.0]), with later stage disease (mppd, 2.5% [95% CI, 3.3–1.4]), and with lung cancer (mppd, 2.2% [95% CI, 3.0–1.3]). Twelve-month all-cause survival was 90.5% in noncancer controls and 86.3% in adjusted counterfactual controls. Differences in post-AMI survival were driven by cancer-related deaths. Modeling improving quality indicator attainment to noncancer patient levels showed modest 12-month survival benefits (lung cancer, 0.6%; other cancers, 0.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Measures of quality of AMI care are poorer in patients with cancer, with lower use of secondary prevention medications. Findings are primarily driven by differences in age and comorbidities between cancer and noncancer populations and attenuated after adjustment. The largest impact was observed in recent cancer diagnoses (<1 year) and lung cancer. Further investigation will determine whether differences reflect appropriate management according to cancer prognosis or whether opportunities to improve AMI outcomes in patients with cancer exist

The relationship between body mass index and sleep in women with risk factors for gestational diabetes mellitus

OnlinePublBackground: Both obesity and sleep disorders are common among women during pregnancy. Although prior research has identified a relationship between obesity and sleep disorders, those findings are from women later in pregnancy. Objective: To explore the relationships between self‐reported sleep duration, insufficient sleep and snoring with body mass index (BMI) among multiethnic women at risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM)in early pregnancy.Methods: Cross‐sectional study of baseline data from women at risk of GDM enrolled in the Treatment of BOoking Gestational diabetes Mellitus (TOBOGM) multicentre trial across 12 Australian/Austrian sites. Participants completed a questionnaire before 20 weeks’ gestation to evaluate sleep. BMI 5 days/ month was higher in class II and class III obesity (1.38 (1.03–1.85) and 1.34 (1.01– 1.80), respectively), and the risk of snoring increased as BMI increased (1.59 (1.25– 2.02), 2.68 (2.07–3.48), 4.35 (3.21–5.88) to 4.96 (3.65–6.74), respectively)). Conclusions: Obesity is associated with insufficient sleep among pregnant women at risk of GDM. Snoring is more prevalent with increasing BMI.Pamela Acosta Reyes, Jincy Immanuel, William M. Hague, Helena Teede, Emily Hibbert, Christopher J. Nolan, Michael J. Peek, Vincent Wong, Jeffrey R. Flack, Mark McLean, Raiyomand Dalal, Jürgen Harreiter, Alexandra Kautzky, Willer, Rohit Rajagopal, Arianne Sweeting, Glynis P. Ross, Ngai Wah Cheung, David Simmon

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Progression as Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk Meta-Analysis of 119 Clinical Trials Involving 100 667 Patients

Background: To quantify the association between effects of interventions on carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) progression and their effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Methods: We systematically collated data from randomized, controlled trials. cIMT was assessed as the mean value at the common-carotid-artery; if unavailable, the maximum value at the common-carotid-artery or other cIMT measures were used. The primary outcome was a combined CVD end point defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization procedures, or fatal CVD. We estimated intervention effects on cIMT progression and incident CVD for each trial, before relating the 2 using a Bayesian meta-regression approach. Results: We analyzed data of 119 randomized, controlled trials involving 100 667 patients (mean age 62 years, 42% female). Over an average follow-up of 3.7 years, 12 038 patients developed the combined CVD end point. Across all interventions, each 10 μm/y reduction of cIMT progression resulted in a relative risk for CVD of 0.91 (95% Credible Interval, 0.87–0.94), with an additional relative risk for CVD of 0.92 (0.87–0.97) being achieved independent of cIMT progression. Taken together, we estimated that interventions reducing cIMT progression by 10, 20, 30, or 40 μm/y would yield relative risks of 0.84 (0.75–0.93), 0.76 (0.67–0.85), 0.69 (0.59–0.79), or 0.63 (0.52–0.74), respectively. Results were similar when grouping trials by type of intervention, time of conduct, time to ultrasound follow-up, availability of individual-participant data, primary versus secondary prevention trials, type of cIMT measurement, and proportion of female patients. Conclusions: The extent of intervention effects on cIMT progression predicted the degree of CVD risk reduction. This provides a missing link supporting the usefulness of cIMT progression as a surrogate marker for CVD risk in clinical trials